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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Current positions:
STO 10x -C280 9/29 @$3.11
STO 10x -C300 10/20 @$5.65 (2nd round, already rode $8.28 to $5.30 over the weekend)
I plan to close them both on further weakness or other opportunity.
STO 10x -C280 9/29 @$3.11
STO 10x -C300 10/20 @$5.65 (2nd round, already rode $8.28 to $5.30 over the weekend)
I plan to close them both on further weakness or other opportunity.
Has been a busy day, mostly waiting to see if we get recovery or not, but also portfolio adjustment in line with my weekend musings
Aside closing out weekly short calls, I also rolled up, but not out, 30x +c140 to +c200 to take some profits, managed to time the sell and subsequent buy on local low/high and gained +$2 extra in the net premiums - not much, but I enjoy small wins like that
Also started legging into my new idea, monthly/quarterly straddles underwritten by long LEAP puts and calls. The LEAP calls I already have, but now I BTO 30x Dec 2025 +p270 and STO 15x Jan -p300 & -c300 - I already had 15x -300 there from last week, now they're covered to the downside and no longer purely cash covered
I went with Dec 2025 +p270's as they give more protection than the -p250's I was initially looking at, will also be able to write higher put strikes over the next two years and they cost basically the same as the premiums I took from the -300 straddles
The idea is to build more of these over the coming days/weeks, until I have 120x to match my Dec 2025 30x +c140 & 90x +c200
My rationale, is that the long puts are essentially free after the first straddle, and after that I can write -270 straddles and above for the next two years with limited downside risk
Anyone see any obvious errors with this?
Aside closing out weekly short calls, I also rolled up, but not out, 30x +c140 to +c200 to take some profits, managed to time the sell and subsequent buy on local low/high and gained +$2 extra in the net premiums - not much, but I enjoy small wins like that
Also started legging into my new idea, monthly/quarterly straddles underwritten by long LEAP puts and calls. The LEAP calls I already have, but now I BTO 30x Dec 2025 +p270 and STO 15x Jan -p300 & -c300 - I already had 15x -300 there from last week, now they're covered to the downside and no longer purely cash covered
I went with Dec 2025 +p270's as they give more protection than the -p250's I was initially looking at, will also be able to write higher put strikes over the next two years and they cost basically the same as the premiums I took from the -300 straddles
The idea is to build more of these over the coming days/weeks, until I have 120x to match my Dec 2025 30x +c140 & 90x +c200
My rationale, is that the long puts are essentially free after the first straddle, and after that I can write -270 straddles and above for the next two years with limited downside risk
Anyone see any obvious errors with this?
Postpartum day #4 of QTA generated ranges:
Chopped around the Monday range low all day basically.
Chopped around the Monday range low all day basically.
Retest something between ~ $245-258. Then with most likely low P&D, something between $217-220. Q3 could take us down to sub $200. Overall macro could take us there before.
Yeah, IN Q4, based on Q3 earnings and report.
Looking to close this in short order if we can get under $8 (got to ~$12 today), could be lower. I’ll repeat an OCT / NOV strike if I close them and we rally at some point post Q3 earnings.
Isn't a low P&D # priced in? We knew about low production during the Q2 ER. Production and delivery should match this quarter and therefore there should be not much inventory which should show that the demand is strong. I am also really bullish about the refreshed Model 3. It looks amazing and it should sell really well. I guess I will buy some $200 puts anyway lol.
I have to think that any "whisper number" is indeed low, but analyst estimates are supposedly still in the 465k-ish range, which could be too high by 5%.
I expect management to reiterate guidance at earnings - I think Q4 will be off the hook - but maybe the interim period between P&D and earnings can be exploited to call the full year guidance into question.
Cary chart update for tomorrow (Tuesday 9/19) FWIW:
Holding below $267.58 keeps $259.30 in reach where we can bottom out for the week. $259.30 can act as a pivot point back up toward channel top Macro permitting.
Closing below $259.30 leads to $230.24.
Above $267.58 can lead to $271.65 which can be the daily top. Above that can lead to $280.93 intraday (not likely).
Holding below $267.58 keeps $259.30 in reach where we can bottom out for the week. $259.30 can act as a pivot point back up toward channel top Macro permitting.
Closing below $259.30 leads to $230.24.
Above $267.58 can lead to $271.65 which can be the daily top. Above that can lead to $280.93 intraday (not likely).
OI shift yesterday shows an overlap, greatest at 265 then down to 257.5. Similar upwards to 275, albeit call heavy. At end of past week I opened a -p255/+p245 position which I will close out on any slight pop and re-sell 4DTE CC above 280 to cover some of the cost. I'm not following the attraction to buying p200 given the perspective share by @Jim Holder that theta drains quickly.
Is it to ride down the SP and sell (for example the 11/17 +p200) bought puts by end of this week? EDIT( I didn't buy these, just asking for clarity)
Is it to ride down the SP and sell (for example the 11/17 +p200) bought puts by end of this week? EDIT( I didn't buy these, just asking for clarity)
Max Pain actually crept up to 262.50, puts beginning to overwhelm the calls 265 and below:
Sold 9/29 CCs at 262.5 on the morning pop. I'm a little worried that CT delivery announcement might swamp this trade so I'll probably cover if we get a nice dip.
Edit, already closed out.
Edit, already closed out.
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BTC both above at spot $261.88 for gains.
Waiting to see price action before selling more short calls.
@dl003 We got the $262 you called for yesterday. Let's see if it can hold. QQQ below $369 not helping.
Edit: Given TSLA held $261 so far, even with QQQ so weak, probably not a good time to sell short calls on TSLA until it's back over the 270's if it even gets there.
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Shuffled things around and bought back Jun 24 300s for like $35, had closed the same previously for around $41. Already sold $300 CC's for next week at 0.59, hoping for a rinse and repeat ....
If P&D (soft) , then maybe it makes sense for some CT deliveries around the same time. (where have all those daily 5-10 CT's gone ....)
We also have FOMC: - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. -- right now market waiting reading the tea leaves on this and just waiting ...
If P&D (soft) , then maybe it makes sense for some CT deliveries around the same time. (where have all those daily 5-10 CT's gone ....)
We also have FOMC: - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. -- right now market waiting reading the tea leaves on this and just waiting ...
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Will we get a perfect island reversal tomorrow, gapping below 257... ? I am not a bit bullish, when we do not escape this immediate threat by finishing a lot higher today..
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