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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Macro is going back to flat or positive. This seem like a healthy pullback overall before the Santa Rally?
Side note - I'm contemplating doing some daily SPY option selling. Hear me out and let me know what you think.
Plan to do a daily Iron Condor $3-$4 out of the money both on Put and Call Side. Example now it's trading at 449. I sell a condor for tomorrow expiration -445p/+444 and -453/+455. Net .18. Max profit $18 per contract Max Loss $80. Probability of not hitting the strike price at both end are 80%. Do this 5 days a week. The bet is winning on statistic. I can scale this out my adding more option or adjusting the legs out as needed. Math may be a little off but the plan is to make little money with little risk no matter if market go up or down or sideway.
Why SPY? Not as volatile, rapid expiration, cheaper entry - so more bit size bets with more controlled max lost combining with more lotto chances.
If it's a dumbass move let me know.
Side note - I'm contemplating doing some daily SPY option selling. Hear me out and let me know what you think.
Plan to do a daily Iron Condor $3-$4 out of the money both on Put and Call Side. Example now it's trading at 449. I sell a condor for tomorrow expiration -445p/+444 and -453/+455. Net .18. Max profit $18 per contract Max Loss $80. Probability of not hitting the strike price at both end are 80%. Do this 5 days a week. The bet is winning on statistic. I can scale this out my adding more option or adjusting the legs out as needed. Math may be a little off but the plan is to make little money with little risk no matter if market go up or down or sideway.
Why SPY? Not as volatile, rapid expiration, cheaper entry - so more bit size bets with more controlled max lost combining with more lotto chances.
If it's a dumbass move let me know.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
So, in a week you make 18x5 = $90. But you will hit the price once and lose $80 ?
Not sure its a good idea.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Yes, It' based on the 80% success ratio from the below slide. So making lot of smaller trade so the wins vastly covered for the lost.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But just covering the losses is not the objective, right ?
The way I see it you are selling 1% OTM. SPY frequently hits 1%. I'd go farther out or sell every other day i.e. DTE 2 instead of 1.
BTW, you can also look at new ETFs that are options based. You don't have to do the hardwork ...
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
So elevator down from here to 140? Seem no chance of a blowout as SP is nowhere near 240 today.
For our brothers with 11/24 -235C today would be a good day I supposed.
For our brothers with 11/24 -235C today would be a good day I supposed.
Looking to buy back the 12 11/24 $245 calls today if/WHEN we get to $1.40-$1.50 (asp $5.6, 75% gain) although I think they will go to zero. I think I’ll have a chance to sell another lower priced strike for more $$, Looking at the 11/24 $240 at ~ $3-$3.25 and equal probability to go to 0 or 75% return In short order. Although, I MIGHT just sit out next week for TSLA.
OT: Buying back a lot of other calls though now too,, CSCO, WMT (90% in 24 hours), LLY, NVO.. still calls to sell against MSFT, ADBE, NVDA, INTC, AMGN. premium are compressing though, and are lower today than last couple days - duh, but are still pretty rich for DEC/JAN strikes at ~ 5-10% above currently share prices.
Santas not here yet.
Wash sale rule applies to identical security / stock options. It doesn’t take into consideration the options strike price and for all practical reasons contracts with differing strikes and expiration dates are considered identical .
So while you end up paying taxes in gains , you cannot disallow the losses . Technically this can end up in a situation where your ending basis after paying taxes will Be substantially lower than where you started .just my 2 cents .
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
@tsla is quite obviously targeted, so alas 239 is not possible any longer, sold some calls 235 to make up for part of the loss, Thinking about rolling if we seem to be in a steep run to 220, which is the most likely target. Tomorrow the bottom should then be reached, assuming we end on a day low above that level.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Seem market maker is going for max pain at 230 knocking out all option holders at 250/255.....
This is no longer a Macro issue as SPY/QQQ has rebounded to flat or close to it. AAPL and NVIDA are both pumping......
This is no longer a Macro issue as SPY/QQQ has rebounded to flat or close to it. AAPL and NVIDA are both pumping......
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I think max-pain would be around 233.75 after today
P.S. $ 331 support is barely holding (which was the first and lowest bottom after most recent gap-up point just a few days ago)
P.S. $ 331 support is barely holding (which was the first and lowest bottom after most recent gap-up point just a few days ago)
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Seems I was wrong about Musk's moronic Tweets impacting the stock, no doubt made worse by the general EV sell-off today and amplified by his exclusion to the APEC CEO Summit - it was this news hitting the wires that precipitated the dump from $236 at 13:05
Earlier today I bought 100x Jan +c300 @$3.3 to cover my ongoing short calls allowing me to sell the March +c240's I'm holding. I had hopes to get +200% for those, then +150%, now I'm looking around +110%
Yes I could keep them and wait for more upside, but I made the mistake not to sell my -p200's when then were +100%, so I'm not going to fall into the greed trap again - +110% is better than zero, and I have the +c300's to cover some upside, will keep those open and just sell against my LEAPS, will give me options in case of a big rally
OK, STC 100x March 2024 +c240's @$24.1 (net +$12.71)
And now the SP can recover...
Earlier today I bought 100x Jan +c300 @$3.3 to cover my ongoing short calls allowing me to sell the March +c240's I'm holding. I had hopes to get +200% for those, then +150%, now I'm looking around +110%
Yes I could keep them and wait for more upside, but I made the mistake not to sell my -p200's when then were +100%, so I'm not going to fall into the greed trap again - +110% is better than zero, and I have the +c300's to cover some upside, will keep those open and just sell against my LEAPS, will give me options in case of a big rally
OK, STC 100x March 2024 +c240's @$24.1 (net +$12.71)
And now the SP can recover...
This comes up periodically and people have differing opinions on it because the IRS has not provided clarity, but it seems silly to think that two contracts with different strikes and expiration that are worth different amounts of money are in any way identical.
And again, once the positions are closed, all the deferred loss washes out anyway.
We’re below any real support at this point (we’d have to get back up above $235 to think we’re at SOME support), and there is nothing substantial between here and ~ $213
Quite a change on the option chain, many puts added and 245 calls shrank considerably:
11/17
Earlier this morning:
[Edit to Add 11/24: $255 still there and quite large
11/17
Earlier this morning:
[Edit to Add 11/24: $255 still there and quite large
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This is counter to other thoughts expressed here in the past. I don’t know, I trade in IRAs.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Its not that simple. Rolling options is an extremely common practice and doesn't trigger wash sales. I do it all the time and Fidelity doesn't mark them as wash. Pls consult your tax firm and get a definite opinion.
You can get into trouble if you roll options and sell underwater shares near each other. Some of that might be considered wash and have to watch out.
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