Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[dl003]

Is there any scenario where we don't go below $200 again in 2024?

Yes. But not probable, at least not yet.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Something got lost in translation there ...

uhh I don't like us being doubted for honesty EVNow, especially not by someone who jumps in and makes this comment at face value (trillionaires???)

 

[2Pearls]

as you can see (or could have seen) we call our losses as well : Get a life!

If you have read my post, I said “most”, but, clearly, I struck a nerve….

 

[dl003]

If you have read my post, I said “most”, but, clearly, I struck a nerve….

I had never seen SpeedyEddy get snarky. You must have done something right.

 

[Knightshade]

I'm not selling puts for next week yet. I think a few more analyst calls will come out slamming CT pricing ... atleast there will be a bigger dip on Monday, IMO.

But I closed my 260CC for today for 0.01 and sold half the 260CC for next week, 0.60. Will sell the rest today if there is a SP spike or on Monday.

For clarity this was STC on 12/8 225ps, not STO

Only open contracts I've got left at all currently are 12/8 -C237.50 which are about 20% green right now and debating closing for that small profit if there's about to be a run.... maybe wait for Powell to see if I can get more like 25% or something.

 

[DaBooster]

Another possibility, equally as likely as getting rejected at 255-260 before going down to 170-180, is going up to fill the gap at 290, before correcting with the market in Q1 2024. TSLA has ALWAYS filled bear gaps before making new lows. Nobody wants to map out corrections because they're messy but I'm trying the best I can.
View attachment 995463

we have a gap at 144 too

 

[SpeedyEddy]

If you have read my post, I said “most”, but, clearly, I struck a nerve….

Maybe being non-native-English is my problem and you did not try to make us look like idiots, faking profits, in which case I apologize and just ask you not to make such bold statements as a newcomer. (Trillionaires triggered me for sure.)

 

[dl003]

we have a gap at 144 too

I've only observed this "must fill" phenomenon on bear gaps, not bull gaps.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I only this "must fill" phenomenon on bear gaps, not bull gaps.

Yeah do remind me of that because we have a lot open below and especially I remember waiting in vain for the $97 -gap fill that did not come in januari keeping me sidelined for far too long.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTW, we are safe @dl003 according to your theory @ $237

 

[EVNow]

I mean...
We get slammed for lower prices
Makes total sense we should get slammed for higher prices too.
Might as well change the ticker to TSLAM

LOL.

Seriously - from a fundamental perspective, its about growth. Price cut on current products = lower margin. High price on future products = lower volume = lower growth.

When CT was unveiled it was supposed to take on F150. It was priced inline with the then Model Y prices. But now it is a 250k a year product priced in between Y and X.

 

[dl003]

BTW, we are safe @dl003 according to your theory 237

I think we're safe. But still, wait for 1:30 candle to confirm.

 

[EVNow]

uhh I don't like us being doubted for honesty EVNow, especially not by someone who jumps in and makes this comment at face value (trillionaires???)

The original comment was supposed to be a joke (see /s = snark at the end).

 

[dl003]

LOL.

Seriously - from a fundamental perspective, its about growth. Price cut on current products = lower margin. High price on future products = lower volume = lower growth.

When CT was unveiled it was supposed to take on F150. It was priced inline with the then Model Y prices. But now it is a 250k a year product priced in between Y and X.

I think they're gonna play it around the order book, like they did last year, jacking up prices when everyone was out buying a car. While demand > supply, it's not surprising they're charging this high of a price. They can lower it once the ramp picks up pace so I don't think it's cause for concern yet.

My friend mentioned this to me yesterday: RIVN did the complete opposite - sell it cheap at first to stoke up demand, while supplies just wasn't there. Then they found out they're losing so much money and had to jack up the price even though supplies increased and created that whole mess. Didn't work out for them.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I think we're safe. But still, wait for 1:30 candle to confirm.

yeah, maybe too early euphorically, thought we were out of the woods, you called 1:30 multiple times

 

[SpeedyEddy]

The original comment was supposed to be a joke (see /s = snark at the end).

there you have it, /s was unknown to me @2Pearls, sorry again. Welcome to trillionairsland /s

 

[2Pearls]

Maybe being non-native-English is my problem and you did not try to make us look like idiots, faking profits, in which case I apologize and just ask you not to make such bold statements as a newcomer. (Trillionaires triggered me for sure.)

Well, not really a newcomer on here or on the main threads. As I have been a forum member since 2013 and have 4 Tesla’s, but I do not post much. I was however, being sarcastic with my note thus the “/s” after my post and the trillionaire comment. I was just making a comment as I had noticed some posting their profits, but not many posting their losses, which I have plenty! but I do apologize if you took it differently than I meant it.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

@dl003 @tivoboy @SpeedyEddy

What do you think of the possibility that the same pattern from Jan 2023-May2023 (left circle) is unfolding now between July 2023-Feb 2024 (right circle) with equivalent extension if we break the green line? Looks eerily similar in formation albeit a bit wider. If you look at each wedge it’s almost identical. If we keep the same % run up, by February we’d be at $381.20. And then dump down to $200-180's as previously expected mid-Feb.

View attachment 995394

sorry for reacting this late, missed your question, but it is possible (as @dl003 and me look to be on the same page), but 381, could be very challenging, although there really is no limit in my +25% change prediction and I still am looking at the MOAW (mother of all wedges, which still is possible to break out
If the breakout-point of the purple wedge you all have seen me draw before(in fact due to breaking the downside I had to correct it) in a few days or weeks for example would be @271, then you add (414-102) and something crazy like 583 could be the final goal of the coming moves (not necessarily in 1 move of course)
my rising purple line (of which I just told you that it had to be corrected, so it CAN be broken) does not allow 203 or lower, which is the reason a -25% move is not viable in my set of calculations, so it has to be up (still not confirmed that it will be up, but my guts are feeling it is the only way) We are (to be confirmed in 3 days) now in a classical Wyckoff set-up having had the low volume lower low, rise, test and underway to our first top (that *25%-one)
and as long as sell-offs or lower on volume then the rise-volumes before, we will keep climbing. At a certain point we will see volume dropping and no more higher highs. then watch out.

MOAW:

 

[Max Plaid]

I always am amazed reading this board that most talk about closing their positions with a profit. We must have a lot of trillionaires on this board as it seems like everyone times their closing perfectly. /s

I can't speak for others, but most weeks I turn a profit - for example, I had a run mid year, three months where I didn't have a single losing position. However, when the losses do come, usually because of a sudden, hard, unexpected reversal, they can be spectacular*

I think because many of us only trade TSLA and follow the company in minute detail, watch the macro, listen to several TA specialists, both in-house and on YT, etc., it gives us that tiny edge that makes all the difference with option trading

*I have 100x Jan 2024 GOOGL +c150's that I paid +$25 when the split was announced, these are almost certain to be a total loss of $250k in the coming weeks, but OK, long expected at least, just recent glimmers of hope that they might recover, still could happen, but GOOGL seems as fickle as TSLA recently

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTW, the MOAW breakout does not support falling back below 200 (ever soon), so @dl003 and I are not on the same page for what happens after the first correction.