SpeedyEddy
Active Member
looking at the minute wicks: this was the bottom!
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Around 232 this morning I closed my expiring today -C242.50s for 97% profit and my -C237.50s for ~90%. Still holding 12/8 -C237.50s which are at about 50% profit right now, and holding 12/8 +P225s which are officially 28% red, but I already pocketed $ from closing the short leg for a nice profit so technically I'm ahead on the position just not super biggly yet.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
reenter for 12/8 +245C to ride the bounce if this is base. Good luck guys
edit - enter since Macro start turning green and SP was bouncing between 233-245 for past 15 minutes.
Don't follow as this is purely doggy sense.....
edit - enter since Macro start turning green and SP was bouncing between 233-245 for past 15 minutes.
Don't follow as this is purely doggy sense.....
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
okay, now wicks to the tops as well.. could still be more to come...
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For me, I see NO, ZERO, NUL, KEIN probability. My base case would be to A) remove the anomaly of Jan 2023 from the calculus, and then B) create a double bottom of the MAR-MAY 2023 period (with some upward adjustment in terminal price).. only THEN do we have a solid very strong and lasting base to build upon to retest new near term highs and ultimately new ATH (not adjusted for inflation - which would be a LOT since Dec‘21)
The overall timeframe for that 2nd base would be Q1’24 into Q2’24, most likely in Q1’24 though all things considered. Deteriorating macro, lasting fed policy impacts, housing retracement, I have to stop there.
If you/one believes that any further downside is limited, and we’re going to ramp to near ATH by end of Q1’24 into Q2’24, then those calls at ~ 330-350 should be pretty darn cheap at this point.
jeewee3000
Active Member
I took profits when we hit $233.5 just now.
(Wrote ITM cc's against all shares when SP was $237 and $243 in the last two weeks, these were 12/15 225cc's and 12/15 230cc's (some rolled from 12/8 expiration))
(Wrote ITM cc's against all shares when SP was $237 and $243 in the last two weeks, these were 12/15 225cc's and 12/15 230cc's (some rolled from 12/8 expiration))
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
IMO the CT launch was not bad. Just sell the news phase. Dont see why we wouldnt bounce. especially when Macro is bouncing up in green 
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
About MA divergence (my newly found theory): If we close above 235 and hold above beginning next week, today can be marked as most converged MA's (because 20MA will go higher, of course as the first one) and leave the pack.
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I closed $242.5-237.5cc for an average of profit of $4 per contract, this is the 3rd week in a row and rebought some shares that I sold at $242 at $232.3. Closed the few put and puts spreads that I had left .
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I don't see any ATH or even near ATH soon, nevermind in 2024. Was just commenting on the chart symmetry. But you're right, the Jan run can be ignored as just to get back to equilibrium after the crazy 2022. Thanks for the reply.
Breaking out has always been a possibility once we bounced from 194, but 381 by Feb? Nope. To shamelessly quote myself:
"Double 3 and triple 3 corrections are sideway corrections, meaning each subsequent bottom will not far exceed the last one. You can see that 194 only barely exceeded 212 even after 3 months have gone by. Even if we have on our hand a triple 3 correction, the next and final bottom will not disastrously exceed 194, making a very buyable bottom for well-prepared traders.
Putting all these premises together, we have 2 overarching scenarios for the next 2 months:
a. The upper trendline resistance will get broken after 255-260 has been tested a few times. TSLA will go on to break 300.
b. The upper trendline resistance will hold, which lead to the Triple 3 correction taking the stage. TSLA will go down to test the lower trendline support, before really breaking out. It will be at that point of contact when no traders should be bearish on the stock as there will be no other path for it to take except up. However, I suspect fear will once again take hold and the sky will once again fall."
Personally, I'm leaning a bit toward the triple 3 scenario. However, sometimes I ask myself it that's because my brain is just refusing to cope with the possibility of a breakout right now. Why would there be a breakout? How hard are we going to run? What's it going to look like? Market tends to find a way to screw the largest number of people over so I'm not going to be overly bearish until it's justified.
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
bounce back up to $235. If we bounce back to near $240 by end of day that would certainly confirm the bullish divergence.
Closed these for +$2,650 gains overnight since TSLA held $231. Will re-open on next pop.
QTA Levels for today
12/1 - What a shift! Call walls gone, puts growing.
12/8
12/15
12/1 - What a shift! Call walls gone, puts growing.
12/8
12/15
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