Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[EVNow]

IV spike on earnings can't come soon enough. Can't recall premiums being so low.

Yes - 260 CC is just 20 cents. 260 is what I'd consider "safe" ...

 

[EVNow]

Parsed your question as subsetting the data just to Thursdays, so we're only seeing whether the Thursday max pain predicts the Friday close, or the Thursday SP predicts the Friday max pain. Let me know if you had something else in mind.

It's much closer, but by a hair the SP is still a better predictor of the future max pain. And it actually reversed the sign on dollar change. Every $1 difference between the max pain and the SP on a Thursday leads to, on average, a -$0.01 change in the SP by Friday close (but again, very much not significant).

Yes, that was the question. Very useful information.

If you can post the raw data in a spreadsheet / csv, that would be very helpful.

For eg. what % of Fridays does the SP close within $1 / 1% of Thursday Max Pain ?

 

[elasalle]

Sold 265 CCs for .10 (We have CPI, Elon chat and possible India Gujrat news ) ...

I sold Jan 25 500 Calls against all my shares, which is like .13c per week .... when you guys here are selling weekly calls .. how much are you expecting to bank ... what would be the average?

 

[EVNow]

I sold Jan 25 500 Calls against all my shares, which is like .13 per week .... when you guys here are selling weekly calls .. how much are you expecting to bank ... what would be the average?

My target is to sell with Delta of 0.10 or less (usually 10% OTM) for 30 to 50 cents.

Today 255 is a delta of 0.08 (showing how low the IV is) and about 40 cents. I'd prefer to sell 260 though - as the major resistance seems to be around 255 to 260 and its about 10% OTM. Right now 260 is just 0.04 delta !

 

[Cherry Wine]

Given the anemic price movement (and premiums, holy crap), a meme double-header this morning.

 

[Yoona]

My target is to sell with Delta of 0.10 or less (usually 10% OTM) for 30 to 50 cents.

Today 255 is a delta of 0.08 (showing how low the IV is) and about 40 cents. I'd prefer to sell 260 though - as the major resistance seems to be around 255 to 260 and its about 10% OTM. Right now 260 is just 0.04 delta !

same, 6 to 10 delta is my comfort zone

edit: sometimes, 6 isn't even safe

• 12/29 i made -p235 6 delta bet, 7DTE
• 1/5 it was ITM 234.90, 0DTE

 

[Knightshade]

So the low premium thing is funny... because a couple weeks ago I'd rolled a bunch of shorter CCs out for Feb 16 (I wanna say Tivoboy or someone had already posted about doing similar) due to relatively good pre-PD premiums.... and this morning they were all at like 50-65% profit already depending on the strike (some 245, some 250, some 260, some 265)... but they STILL all had at least $1-2/sh per week of value left so I've not closed them early when normally I might've considered doing so, because of how crap any new positions would be in comparison

 

[EVNow]

same, 6 to 10 delta is my comfort zone

edit: sometimes, 6 isn't even safe

• 12/29 i made -p235 6 delta bet, 7DTE
• 1/5 it was ITM 234.90, 0DTE

I don't hold any options through big news event days - P&D, ER .... (ofcourse, when I'm already ITM and forced to roll).

 

[thenewguy1979]

Macro is making up for the downtime last week.

Butterfly based on today max pain. Tighter spread

Vs more Relaxed Spread with more chance of winning. Also more Max loss

Perhaps Yoona's analysis can bring some light on this max pain thing or how this can be hone into.

 

[Yoona]

bounced at 237.85 = largest dark pool = PM High = VWAP

 

[willow_hiller]

Yes, that was the question. Very useful information.

If you can post the raw data in a spreadsheet / csv, that would be very helpful.

For eg. what % of Fridays does the SP close within $1 / 1% of Thursday Max Pain ?

The CSV is in the zip attached to my first reply to Yoona. For some reason TMC doesn't allow CSV attachments directly, so I had to compress it first.

All I've done on top of that raw CSV is calculate a few differences, and shift a couple of variables by 1 trading day to calculate changes over time.

Only 25 weeks in the dataset, so 2/25 Fridays are within $1 of Thursday max pain (July 21 and September 1), and if you change the criteria to 1%, only one additional day qualifies (December 1).

 

[Jim Holder]

STO -C285 2/2/24 @$1.54
STO -C290 2/16/24 @2.25
Just a few of each

 

[thenewguy1979]

STO -C285 2/2/24 @$1.54
STO -C290 2/16/24 @2.25
Just a few of each

Betting on we going down after earning or just scalping Jim? Seem hot.

 

[Jim Holder]

Betting on we going down after earning or just scalping Jim? Seem hot.

Both. Also betting on TSLA not passing $258 before next leg down.
And both of these are <0.13 delta (0.13 and 0.11)

I don't plan to hold them long in any case. $240 rejected meantime and we're at top of day so good time to open far out conservative strikes for scalping for the inevitable dip. And if dip doesn't come, I'll just hold until it does while draining theta into my pocket, or let expire/roll. Many tools in the apron.

 

[Jim Holder]

A close above the line ($238.10) bodes well for bullish continuation to $248-$257.
A close below keeps $229.60 and $220.17 on the table.

 

[wooter]

I'm looking at a -225p -250c IC, but it hasn't reached my preferred premium yet. Last week and many weeks before I'd readjust to get it on Monday, to then notice I could have gotten bigger premiums because the SP does funny on Tuesday. So again I will not budge and keep my preferred premium GTC.

 

[EVNow]

The CSV is in the zip attached to my first reply to Yoona. For some reason TMC doesn't allow CSV attachments directly, so I had to compress it first.

All I've done on top of that raw CSV is calculate a few differences, and shift a couple of variables by 1 trading day to calculate changes over time.

Only 25 weeks in the dataset, so 2/25 Fridays are within $1 of Thursday max pain (July 21 and September 1), and if you change the criteria to 1%, only one additional day qualifies (December 1).

So much for everyone claiming MM manipulation !

 

[thenewguy1979]

So much for everyone claiming MM manipulation !

Guess, that also put an end on the butterfly strategy for Tesla. Was hoping for something like a 30-40% hit rate. No easy lunch.

 

[EVNow]

Guess, that also put an end on the butterfly strategy for Tesla. Was hoping for something like a 30-40% hit rate. No easy lunch.

Yes - I think we can probably guess better knowing Thursday SP close.

 

[willow_hiller]

So much for everyone claiming MM manipulation !

I don't think max pain was ever based on empirical evidence; it was always based on the theory that market makers would make the most profit by moving the underlying to where the most long contracts expired worthless. But we know now that the market makers delta-hedge, and are completely agnostic to the actual price of the underlying. They make their profit on the volume of contracts and churn.