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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Was waiting for a rip ... but since that didn't happen ...
sold Jan 25 420 CCs against Jan26/Jun 26 Calls and added 8 more Jun 26 250 Calls.
Only thing making me money right now are the CCs.
Will Tesla touch 300 in 2024? kinda sad i am even asking this question
sold Jan 25 420 CCs against Jan26/Jun 26 Calls and added 8 more Jun 26 250 Calls.
Only thing making me money right now are the CCs.
Will Tesla touch 300 in 2024? kinda sad i am even asking this question
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I sold NIO I had for a few years when it touched 9.50 couple of weeks back. Looks like I can buy XPENG and even RIVN for the same price soon
That one has to buy and sell calls and puts, opportunistically to make any money out of the nonsense of it all.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
What if TSLA earnings are a beat with a better GM than expected ? Tesla has a lot of stuff they can play around with in earnings (thats why I quit forecasting sometime back).
What if Enterprise says they will buy 1,000 Teslas - even that might push the stock up 20%
More analysis could help put this into perspective: what were macros doing at the time? What was TSLA doing in the run up to P&D? Perhaps most importantly, what were expectations with respect to future company financials and growth outside of the volume reporting?
$199.x is support, but not a strong one… $236.x is resistance and a VERY VERY strong one.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You can't view P&D in isolation. You have to see how TSLA performed w.r.t. Nasdaq - accounting for any new news.
TSLA's current TTM EPS is $3.1, and PE ratio of 67.
If TSLA prints a $0.6 EPS this quarter (up from $0.53 in Q3), the TTM EPS will still go down because Q4 2022 was $1.07.
The new TTM after earnings update would be $2.63, and at current share price a PE ratio of 79.5. That's a pretty high PE ratio for a company with short term flat earnings growth.
In fact, can you find other profitable companies w/ stable growth that show such a high PE ratio? Usually you see it when a company had a big one-time loss in a quarter (like writing down some sunk investment).
Tesla certainly might be able to sustain such a high growth valuation, but let's not pretend it's normal.
All that is just to say, why can't the price go lower short term? If the share price was $180, that will still be a TTM PE ratio of 68. $150? PE ratio of 57. Those... aren't absurd valuations on the surface.
Obviously, what matters most is the markets expectations for earnings over the next year or two. This is why clarity on what revenues Tesla is going to make from Energy, Cybertruck, etc... are going to be by the end of the year is really important. And what costs are going to drag margins from - for example - the terrible progress in 4680 DBE scaling.
This is what we need to learn on the earnings call. Not FSD, Dojo, Optimus. Those are great long term but mean nothing for earnings growth later this year and in 2025.
If TSLA prints a $0.6 EPS this quarter (up from $0.53 in Q3), the TTM EPS will still go down because Q4 2022 was $1.07.
The new TTM after earnings update would be $2.63, and at current share price a PE ratio of 79.5. That's a pretty high PE ratio for a company with short term flat earnings growth.
In fact, can you find other profitable companies w/ stable growth that show such a high PE ratio? Usually you see it when a company had a big one-time loss in a quarter (like writing down some sunk investment).
Tesla certainly might be able to sustain such a high growth valuation, but let's not pretend it's normal.
All that is just to say, why can't the price go lower short term? If the share price was $180, that will still be a TTM PE ratio of 68. $150? PE ratio of 57. Those... aren't absurd valuations on the surface.
Obviously, what matters most is the markets expectations for earnings over the next year or two. This is why clarity on what revenues Tesla is going to make from Energy, Cybertruck, etc... are going to be by the end of the year is really important. And what costs are going to drag margins from - for example - the terrible progress in 4680 DBE scaling.
This is what we need to learn on the earnings call. Not FSD, Dojo, Optimus. Those are great long term but mean nothing for earnings growth later this year and in 2025.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Turned out to being right totally on my opening remarks of lower tops and lower bottoms, so now I'm in for an-afternoon snack. Cautiously just sold
-P 210 for tomorrow, because I guess on this macro we have to be realistic; it almost certain must stop around max pain.
-P 210 for tomorrow, because I guess on this macro we have to be realistic; it almost certain must stop around max pain.
Last edited:
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
nope, so the chances of a seldomly seen "sell the rumor, buy the fact" are improving.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
So the only thing you can do is follow the waves and not bet the farm on anything. (The man with the Time Machine can Yolo the farm)
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I have to look up my posting about levels below, but as I remember they were $220(-light support )217-210-199-173 and then the last big gap-up around 145. Sigh. Yesterday I added the Armageddonish $128.. (red-dotted rising line under all-time-lows)
Ps collecting .39 on closing the -P210 (nice lunch...)
STO-C 1/19 $210 for extra desert for tomorrow
Ps collecting .39 on closing the -P210 (nice lunch...)
STO-C 1/19 $210 for extra desert for tomorrow
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
In my head there is a crazy idea, burning.
To sell @SP 210 something like -C205 and -P215 for next week, because it will be volatile I think. So when significantly UP close -P and when down close -C. Only a unidirectional run will scalp me, instead of me scalping premium....
[Edit] already have put it in play for tomorrow with -P210 and -C210, will scalp on any >1 dollar gain [/edit}
To sell @SP 210 something like -C205 and -P215 for next week, because it will be volatile I think. So when significantly UP close -P and when down close -C. Only a unidirectional run will scalp me, instead of me scalping premium....
[Edit] already have put it in play for tomorrow with -P210 and -C210, will scalp on any >1 dollar gain [/edit}
Since I still suck at taking advantage of tops and bottoms and trying to learn to act when everyone else is scared and disgusted with the stock, I stuck my neck out and STO a few -P290 9/20/24 @$85.75 to add to my current position of the same to reduce cost basis. I also BTO a couple more +C255 9/20/24 @$18.55.
Officially now is around the time to think a little contrarian.
Of course I may regret it but nothing chanced is nothing gained AND I can always reverse the trades if we break $200 and fall more with no signs of recovery in the near future.
Officially now is around the time to think a little contrarian.
Of course I may regret it but nothing chanced is nothing gained AND I can always reverse the trades if we break $200 and fall more with no signs of recovery in the near future.
You were sooooo right !!! Checking for same strike roll, it's a credit. Yet, $5 improvement, same width. to the 2nd of Feb already a $1.77 debit and flip rolls are too risky to run to for cover. Careful, folks !
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
All grown men and scared?
Little doggy here going hold his -215P and -213P till tomorrow, since his tiny legs cannot roll anyway
OK - dry kibble here I come........
Little doggy here going hold his -215P and -213P till tomorrow, since his tiny legs cannot roll anyway
OK - dry kibble here I come........
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