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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Yes, take out some covid, but that includes Nov/dec 2021, it was irrational. Take out DEC 2022/JAN 2023 lows, I’m fine with that, THEN lets rebuild some charts.
Problem is, the narrative is quickly forming that as far as the stock goes, SOME MULTIPLE of earnings, is warranted.. there WAS strong buying of course RABID buying some might say when P/E was ~ 25 down when stock was <108$. Now, at 65x with EARNINGS FALLING OR FLAT, nobody wants to warrant a 65x PE.. and that’s TODAY after 30% chopped off in the past ~ 60 days.
So, somewhere IN BETWEEN seems logical if not also probable. So take the ~ $4 EPS for 2024, multiply by ~ 40, we’re at $160… maybe its only 35x we’re at $140.. ok, lets give them a LITTLE more credit, we’re at $155+
Too many ppl now are trying to say “car company”, which would be a 6 or 10x multiple at best, and that in my opinion is just not going to happen.
So I’m going to work over the weekend on my earnings update, target multiple - though where there is interest and buying support for this type of growth and some category combination. And then lay that OVER the TA, but with the 3-4SD carve outs that I mentioned above. That’ll be an interesting exercise.
Into close:
BTO +P170 3/15/24 @$5.70
STO -C240 4/19/24 @$2.50
BTO +P170 3/15/24 @$5.70
STO -C240 4/19/24 @$2.50
2/2 options market guessing 170-195ish
looking one month ahead, watch out for 160 on 2/23
max pain ahead
net premium flow not too bad today
looking at net premiums, 180 and 187.50 are next week's large bets
similar to yesterday, we finished on green candles
looking one month ahead, watch out for 160 on 2/23
max pain ahead
net premium flow not too bad today
looking at net premiums, 180 and 187.50 are next week's large bets
similar to yesterday, we finished on green candles
Well, boys and girl, was a green day, I'll take it!
Has been a nasty week, actually An awful 4 weeks, one of the worst I can ever remember, but I think most of us were better positioned than in the past, I haven't heard any horror-stories from anyone, no margin-calls, etc.
So I believe we've learned something from the past
Has been a nasty week, actually An awful 4 weeks, one of the worst I can ever remember, but I think most of us were better positioned than in the past, I haven't heard any horror-stories from anyone, no margin-calls, etc.
So I believe we've learned something from the past
you know, i was just thinking of saying the same thing
if you've been here for quite a while and you're still experiencing large losses, then you're really not paying attention
once in a while is ok, but don't make it consistent
Anything after 3/15/24 is OLD MONEY at best… and even then it’s only higher probably due to more OLD MONEY post Mar 2024 monthly expiry. So, I think this curve is going to start to flatten more, so if we were to take it TODAY and track it against closes, I think we’re going to continue to be consistently BELOW MP on relative closes. I’m making a new worksheet.
Well I will admit that my portfolio is down 20% YTD, but that's paper losses, realised gains at +$200k, and that's including a load of short puts that went dITM in the dump down
And I'm not intending to panic sell the longs down here, will just keep selling against them until expiry, strong possibility to at least recuperate the initial costs
But I think I'm done with expensive LEAPS, they're too stressy when they fall in price, underwater very fast...
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
If I have initially learned about Option / Strategies from this group versus from that infamous reddit site, I would be 10x more well off and be a more handsome doggy then what I look now
and Yoona would have adopted me.The only loss I have incurred was when I stray off the path and become greedy. Else all was goods.
the reason i sold NVDA IC on Wed is because i noticed that NVDA never had 3 consecutive 10%+ OTMs, so the chance of a low OTM this week is highshutdown time, i might be spending more time with NVDA and SPY so you may see me less
it's always 2 weeks large up and then rest a bit
low 7dte OTM is perfect for IC
now you know!
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Are we expecting a big knock your socks off move for TSLA next week - Yoona's safe ICs is at 15%. Seem to even be higher then this week.
probably 173-193 at the most
I have 1 year of income lurking in CASH.TO waiting for that kind of moment.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Paper lost is not a loss till the contract is closed.
Acknowledging that concepts can help avoid panicking situation. Easier said then done.
The only 3 previous times in TSLA history of 6 weekly red candles (the last one 7.5 years ago), the following weeks were green.
https://x.com/Jake__Wujastyk/status/1750876655826993350?s=20
https://x.com/Jake__Wujastyk/status/1750876655826993350?s=20
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⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
I would love to discuss this further, but I don't want to be an annoyance on this thread. It just seems like options are so restrictive with the 100 shares and expiration dates.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I don't understand what this means .... options (buying) is leveraging. As with any leverage adverse SP movement will make the matters worse. Then there is the while time value thing ....
Damn some people are so bearish, talking about becoming the nurse from Dumb Money and even brought in sp from GJ. Tesla has always traded at a premium even when they were about to go bankrupt. It's a "lets wait to see if Elon pulls a rabbit out of a hat" kind of stock and there are plenty of people willing to wait for that moment. Becoming profitable was that first rabbit hat pull. Now people are waiting for FSD or optimus so it will trade at a premium as the upside is too huge to miss out if it happens.
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