Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[mongo]

need help from mathematicians/statistics geniuses pls

i have a dataset
View attachment 1012782

and i want to exclude "special cases" (that is outside of a majority range) outlined in the boxes

so what i am left with is +6.59 to -6.52

what is that mathematical formula called? percentile? median? rank? weighted avg? distribution? variance? etc

TIA!!!!!

Are you trying to subset the data (filter outliers)? If so, manually or automatically?
The simple way I can think of is to a add a column with =if(AND(A1>=lowerbound,A1<=upperbound),A1,"")
Not sure if you need to filter the column afterward or if your formulas skip blanks.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The specific dynamic that is not shared with a share backed cc is that the short call can go ITM and then keep going until the delta on the short call is higher than the delta on the long call. At that point you will start losing money, net, as the share price keeps going up (unrealized as long as you own everything). That doesn't happen with share backed cc - the shares delta is always higher, though the option price can be moving faster due to changes in IV.

That is a particularly bloodless description of a terrifying situation .

But that's really something I only need to worry about if I plan on trading in and out of the CC's and/or the LEAPS I own correct?

If say I put a strike price that I was ok selling the net shares I would get from the LEAPS, that's the only really downside for me, that I'm limiting my upside on the shares I plan on getting from exercising those LEAPS.

I know most of the guys and gals here are way more active with weeklies and monthlies. At least for me until I get my cash position up to a certain amount, I'm only selling calls with strikes at the $400 level because that's the number I've calculated for myself (and family) as the number that would get us to comfortable retirement if the share price got up to that level again. So it wouldn't be the end of the world if a good chuck of my shares got called away. After the past 3 years, I wouldn't be crying tears lol.....

Thanks for the advice!

 

[tivoboy]

my comment was more about doing something instead of diamond handing stock through anything. Also, about my experience of that crazy run to $1240 that was life changing and euphoric in which retail had a big part with that run. In no way shape or form I am suggesting that Tesla will go bankrupt or that I has a company of the same caliber as GME.

I was really worried about ER and also nervous about my work situation and I took action. For the year I am down 5% and so far it looks like the right play. My problem now is that I don't know what to do with my money and I would like to buy back but I really need to feel that Tesla the stock is on the right path. I am really curious about @tivoboy trades during this time.

Not sure which you mean by “this time” if you mean this time NOW or THAT time back in 2021.. but my trades about THAT time are posted in the “other thread” where I no longer post. Entered heavy in may 2021 at $666 (at the time) and exited and posted the exit at $1214 entire position. (While I was driving cross country during covid and a west coast snow storm) Anyone who took heed made some bank. My outside email recipients who listened were quite happy with the two calls. The thread participants, not so much.

One close friend whom I convinced to sell 30% of his eight figure plus postion at the time and sell calls against another 20% of his TSLA holdings was so thankful that when he built his new seven BR house in the mountains he made a room with my name on the door. ;-).

With friends like these, every man/woman is already rich. (And I don’t mean the benjamins)

 

[juanmedina]

Not sure which you mean by “this time” if you mean this time NOW or THAT time back in 2021.. but my trades about THAT time are posted in the “other thread” where I no longer post. Entered heavy in may 2021 at $666 (at the time) and excited and posted the exit at $1214 entire position. (While I was driving cross country during covid and a west coast snow storm) Anyone who took heed made some bank. My outside email recipients who listened were quite happy with the two calls. The thread participants, not so much.

One close friend whom I convinced to sell 30% of his eight figure plus postion at the time and sell calls against another 20% of his TSLA holdings was so thankful that when he built his new seven BR house in the mountains he made a room with my name on the door. ;-).

With friends like these, every man/woman is already rich. (And I don’t mean the benjamins)

I mean NOW. Your post below sparked my curiosity and I am looking forward to seeing your trades because I have a bag full of cash and I am willing to work and make the greatest trading money ever .

Ok ppl, breaks over. Let’s get out there and make some money!.

volatility brings opportunity. There’s really nobody HERE who didn’t see this coming. Some were more prepared than others. If you’re holden’ and didn’t fold’em there’s gonna be nice -CC rev to be made in the short/near term.

My first move today will be to sell the $200 +p 2/23/24 bought when we were at $254. There’s probably more $$ there to be made but I’m raising more cash.

If you had dry powder, your ship has come in. There’s a sale for the foreseeable future and if you’re not JUST HODL, and willing to work for it this is the greatest trading money maker I’ve seen in many years if not decades.

Daddy’s got a bag full of cash and a full tank of gas. So let’s get out there and turn water into WINE! Ich habe Dampf drauf!

 

[Yoona]

need help from mathematicians/statistics geniuses pls

i have a dataset
View attachment 1012782

and i want to exclude "special cases" (that is outside of a majority range) outlined in the boxes

so what i am left with is +6.59 to -6.52

what is that mathematical formula called? percentile? median? rank? weighted avg? distribution? variance? etc

TIA!!!!!

found it

 

[tivoboy]

my IC has 86-88% chance of surviving earnings week (backtested 51 quarters)

View attachment 1012712

That’s pretty impressive!

Could you code it with less than 2000 lines of code, so I can pop it into a raspberry pi, jack it into my internet and just give it broker credentials?

Also, I‘ll need it to be able to encrypt my Lichtenstein account credentials for the DAILY wire transfers outbound. ;-)

Nice work.

 

[Yoona]

That’s pretty impressive!

Could you code it with less than 2000 lines of code, so I can pop it into a raspberry pi, jack it into my internet and just give it broker credentials?

Also, I‘ll need it to be able to encrypt my Lichtenstein account credentials for the DAILY wire transfers outbound. ;-)

Nice work.

i should start charging $ for my indicator

 

[Jim Holder]

Interesting take:

Credit: QuantScraper

 

[DaBooster]

i should start charging $ for my indicator
View attachment 1012849

that must be a private indicator?

 

[Jim Holder]

Another similar one:

Dating back to August 2023, when TSLA drops roughly 30%, it rises by average 31%.

Credit: The_RockTrading

 

[BornToFly]

I have multiple options I'm considering for how to deal with margin and my (rolled from 2021) 150X +170P/-195P for March 15. Closing it now would cost about $180k.

Options:
1) Take the loss
2) Take the loss. Sell 9,000 shares at 180 and hope to buy back at 160 to cover the loss.
3) Roll to Jan 2025 (no loss). Sell 9,000 shares to increase margin if we go below 175. Hope I don't lose money on the ping-pong game of buy/sell over and over again at 175.
4) Flip roll 75X -195P to -175CC for March, and hope the SP doesn't shoot back up to 230. Use 150X +170P to close remaining 75X -190P with small loss.
5) Same as 4, but open Jan 2025 CC at 240 strike instead of March -175CC

I think option 3 is the least dangerous? (Edit: But it doesn't get rid of the spread once and for all).

I hate to do any of this if we are on the verge of a bounce. But I lost 2/3 of my capital in 2022 because I sat on my hands hoping instead of fixing things early....

 

[adiggs]

But that's really something I only need to worry about if I plan on trading in and out of the CC's and/or the LEAPS I own correct?

If say I put a strike price that I was ok selling the net shares I would get from the LEAPS, that's the only really downside for me, that I'm limiting my upside on the shares I plan on getting from exercising those LEAPS.

I know most of the guys and gals here are way more active with weeklies and monthlies. At least for me until I get my cash position up to a certain amount, I'm only selling calls with strikes at the $400 level because that's the number I've calculated for myself (and family) as the number that would get us to comfortable retirement if the share price got up to that level again. So it wouldn't be the end of the world if a good chuck of my shares got called away. After the past 3 years, I wouldn't be crying tears lol.....

Thanks for the advice!

I think a for-instance of what you're asking about will help.

The dynamic in a PMCC where the short call delta goes above the long call delta is always available. Where this matters is a really big move that pushes the short cc ITM - the size of the loss will keep growing rather than capping as it would with a share backed cc.

Remember that for the PMCC to work, that the long call is ITM. You might purchase a $100 strike call right now to back a $200 strike cc. However a $250 strike leap will not work for this purpose.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think a for-instance of what you're asking about will help.

The dynamic in a PMCC where the short call delta goes above the long call delta is always available. Where this matters is a really big move that pushes the short cc ITM - the size of the loss will keep growing rather than capping as it would with a share backed cc.

Remember that for the PMCC to work, that the long call is ITM. You might purchase a $100 strike call right now to back a $200 strike cc. However a $250 strike leap will not work for this purpose.

Is there anything that would prevent me from converting my ITM LEAP to shares if I want to in the future if I have CC’s sold against those leaps? Would the CC’s then just be against actual shares?

I think I get what you’re saying in that IF you bought an ITM leap and sold a CC on it at a higher strike that then went ITM, then you’re negative the difference in delta between your ITM LEAP and the now ITM CC.

Where as in my situation, I will have the funds to exercise the current ITM LEAP I own and will likely exercise them well before their expiration date (unless the stock is well below the strike price), so it won’t really matter about the delta.

 

[khill]

Yes, take out some covid, but that includes Nov/dec 2021, it was irrational. Take out DEC 2022/JAN 2023 lows, I’m fine with that, THEN lets rebuild some charts.

Problem is, the narrative is quickly forming that as far as the stock goes, SOME MULTIPLE of earnings, is warranted.. there WAS strong buying of course RABID buying some might say when P/E was ~ 25 down when stock was <108$. Now, at 65x with EARNINGS FALLING OR FLAT, nobody wants to warrant a 65x PE.. and that’s TODAY after 30% chopped off in the past ~ 60 days.

So, somewhere IN BETWEEN seems logical if not also probable. So take the ~ $4 EPS for 2024, multiply by ~ 40, we’re at $160… maybe its only 35x we’re at $140.. ok, lets give them a LITTLE more credit, we’re at $155+

Too many ppl now are trying to say “car company”, which would be a 6 or 10x multiple at best, and that in my opinion is just not going to happen.

So I’m going to work over the weekend on my earnings update, target multiple - though where there is interest and buying support for this type of growth and some category combination. And then lay that OVER the TA, but with the 3-4SD carve outs that I mentioned above. That’ll be an interesting exercise.

Looking forward to your post after your weekend analysis. You have definitely saved me a lot of money by predicting the 180s for some time. And here we are at 180.

 

[MikeC]

I have multiple options I'm considering for how to deal with margin and my (rolled from 2021) 150X +170P/-195P for March 15. Closing it now would cost about $180k.

Options:
1) Take the loss
2) Take the loss. Sell 9,000 shares at 180 and hope to buy back at 160 to cover the loss.
3) Roll to Jan 2025 (no loss). Sell 9,000 shares to increase margin if we go below 175. Hope I don't lose money on the ping-pong game of buy/sell over and over again at 175.
4) Flip roll 75X -195P to -175CC for March, and hope the SP doesn't shoot back up to 230. Use 150X +170P to close remaining 75X -190P with small loss.
5) Same as 4, but open Jan 2025 CC at 240 strike instead of March -175CC

I think option 3 is the least dangerous? (Edit: But it doesn't get rid of the spread once and for all).

I hate to do any of this if we are on the verge of a bounce. But I lost 2/3 of my capital in 2022 because I sat on my hands hoping instead of fixing things early....

Do you have cash to allow assignment on some of those 195p? If not, could you raise cash by selling 9000 shares and then buying 90x 6/26 100c to replace them?

My thinking is you could accept assignment at 195 on maybe 50 contracts so you’re down to 100 with 5000 new shares. Then sell 50 calls at 195 and use that premium to close however many more of the remaining spreads you can - if you sell far enough out, you can probably close a lot of them. And since you didn’t want the shares anyway there’s no problem with them being called away. You can also sell the 50x +p175 that were opened up and use that money to close more spreads.

 

[adiggs]

Is there anything that would prevent me from converting my ITM LEAP to shares if I want to in the future if I have CC’s sold against those leaps? Would the CC’s then just be against actual shares?

I think I get what you’re saying in that IF you bought an ITM leap and sold a CC on it at a higher strike that then went ITM, then you’re negative the difference in delta between your ITM LEAP and the now ITM CC.

Where as in my situation, I will have the funds to exercise the current ITM LEAP I own and will likely exercise them well before their expiration date (unless the stock is well below the strike price), so it won’t really matter about the delta.

I can't think of anything that would stop your choosing to exercise your ITM leap option early. The better choice will almost invariably be to buy the 100 shares and to sell the leap, as early exercise has the side consequence of giving away whatever time value exists at that time to the option seller. With leaps (12+ months to expiration) that time value will be measured in dollars, and likely 10s of dollars per share.

The problem with the different deltas is that the combined value of the long leap plus the short call can be shrinking as the share price goes up, and the short call goes deeper and deeper into the money. With shares you'll reach a point where all of the gains in the shares are offset by losses in the covering call. The share backed CC will never go negative (combined value decreasing as the share price goes up).

It's actually fairly easy for the combined value to go negative with the PMCC. It's fairly easy for the long dated call to have a delta of say .80, with very small changes in that delta over $10s of dollars of share price movement. Meanwhile the short call with low DTE can readily see its delta change from .10 to .90 over a fairly small change in share price - especially near expiration.


If you're buying a leap as an interim step to later buying the shares, so you aren't using the leap for any leverage, then I wonder what the purpose of buying the leap in the first place is. I'm not seeing how buying the leap first enhances your later position buying the shares. Unless you're using the cost of the option as a mechanism for not buying the shares later if the price is down too much? Seems like expensive insurance to me, but as I said - I'm not understanding the intent.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Another similar one:

Dating back to August 2023, when TSLA drops roughly 30%, it rises by average 31%.

View attachment 1012893
Credit: The_RockTrading

you could charge for that and the daily levels-postings as well, or shall we just stay friends?
[edit] I tried to be funny in general, but you could take offense personally @Jim Holder, which was totally not intended.[/edit}

 

[Max Plaid]

I think a for-instance of what you're asking about will help.

The dynamic in a PMCC where the short call delta goes above the long call delta is always available. Where this matters is a really big move that pushes the short cc ITM - the size of the loss will keep growing rather than capping as it would with a share backed cc.

Remember that for the PMCC to work, that the long call is ITM. You might purchase a $100 strike call right now to back a $200 strike cc. However a $250 strike leap will not work for this purpose.

But with a sold call you can always roll it up and out

Also you can sell short calls at a strike below the long, but then you need to cover the width x volume with cash/margin, same as any other spread

 

[Max Plaid]

I have multiple options I'm considering for how to deal with margin and my (rolled from 2021) 150X +170P/-195P for March 15. Closing it now would cost about $180k.

Options:
1) Take the loss
2) Take the loss. Sell 9,000 shares at 180 and hope to buy back at 160 to cover the loss.
3) Roll to Jan 2025 (no loss). Sell 9,000 shares to increase margin if we go below 175. Hope I don't lose money on the ping-pong game of buy/sell over and over again at 175.
4) Flip roll 75X -195P to -175CC for March, and hope the SP doesn't shoot back up to 230. Use 150X +170P to close remaining 75X -190P with small loss.
5) Same as 4, but open Jan 2025 CC at 240 strike instead of March -175CC

I think option 3 is the least dangerous? (Edit: But it doesn't get rid of the spread once and for all).

I hate to do any of this if we are on the verge of a bounce. But I lost 2/3 of my capital in 2022 because I sat on my hands hoping instead of fixing things early....

What about 150x March -p185/-c195 strangle? Or even just 150x -c185? You have the shares to cover that?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

To me at least, the $146 gap is the most likely outcome. It's crazy to think that 9-10 months ago, when that gap up happened, it was like......yeah we're gonna be revisiting this at some point lol

I want to sell more CC's but dear lord you'd think there would be some sort of dead cat bounce after this 10% drop before start the move down to $146

I was (at that time) one who said 145 would likely be revisited and thought it would happen within weeks, but I got convinced the opportunity would not come (anytime soon) so I went back in leaving a great gap in portfolio as well. Now I'm a bit worried about the closest -P, but sure am lucky to have chosen close expiration dates, so I can still roll profitably. So now I wait to see what happens at 177 and then slowly roll into -P 145's or below and if that does not work out roll even more in time.