-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
If history repeats itself, we got two more tests of 180'ish level and then another test in the 190'ish level over the next 3 months.Way Oversold ...
Rolled current CC's and Sold 200 strike CC 2 weeks out on the dip
I the normal course of events I'm looking 6 months out - so back in December at SP265, that was the moment to buy July +p200's when they cost $9, so once a 6 month DTE gets around $10, that's the moment IMO. Buy the puts when the SP is high, buy the calls when the SP is low - now is the tome to buy July calls, then you can write against your shares, but it the stock reverses, you can just roll out to those calls you placed there ready for a lo cost...
This set of puts I have now are a bit different. I was holding 100x +p200's bought for $12.4 back in September. There was a moment in October when they went to $24, that was the time to sell them, but I had written against them and had to hold... this time it was a bit the same, I had written -p205's when the SP was in the 240's, figured there were safe, but the overnight gap down on earnings put them ITM and even though the +p200's went almost 2x, I was again trapped. The difference this time was that I only had 8x expiries to deal with the ITM shorts, and I figured if the stock kept falling I might not get out of it, so I essentially rolled them out to 2025, same strike, cost an extra $19, but I figured for 10 months extra cover and time to trade against this was worth it, plus I realised $80k profits from the original +p200's, so it "felt good"
Now what I am thinking is that once I get my current short puts (-p185's & -p190's), I might just offload them anyway, it's $400k of capital in those - that's a lot of CSP selling without the risk of losing the puts in a big rally back to 300, yes could happen... so risk management is telling me to do that if I get the opportunity and just move to CSP's down here, rebut some +p's when we finally get some kind of recovery
I want history to repeat to ATH
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
but 1st we need to get to the low low 1st.....seem the consensus this is not yet bottom.I want history to repeat to ATH
Actually if we're saying history repeats itself when the death cross happens, we've already pretty much bottomed. The next 3-4 months is just going to be a series of relief rallies followed by testing the low set right before the death cross over and over again.
I don’t know how Gary Black is regarded around here, but he has a $290 SP without FSD:
Excerpt:
“I assume EV adoption continues to grow at 35% per year, to 60% by 2030. I assume gross margins ex-RC stabilize at 17.3% in 2024 and expand to 22.0% by 2030. I assume Energy gross profits 6x between 2024-2030 and Service gross profits 3x by 2030.
“My 2030 EPS is $21. I apply a 1.5x PEG in 2030 to TSLA’s 20% forward EPS growth (30x P/E), which equates to $630 in 2030 value. At a 13.6% discount rate (4.0% 10yrTY, 6% ERP, 1.6x beta) discounted back to 2024, I get $290 in present value.
“I am long $TSLA because I believe: 1/ Auto gross margins have now bottomed. 2/ TSLA 2024 volume growth can exceed WS consensus ests of +17% YoY growth, given CT halo effect, M-3 Refresh, $7,500 off invoice EV credit on M-Y, and my view TSLA will start to invest in long-term brand equity. 3/ TSLA now too cheap at 44x 2025 EPS assuming my 35% long-term EPS growth forecast is correct (1.3x PEG vs avg R1G of 1.8x PEG).”
Last edited:
You have to remember that we here are probably the most knowledgeable group of investors in TSLA, while we're able to ignore the FUD and focus on 2025/26, most folks believe everything the MSM feeds them and don't look past the end of the current quarter, or even the weekly China registrations
So yes, the average Joe and likely the institutions too, just don't get it and are frightened to buy right now
For me I have now started accumulating stock. I do see this as a long play and I want to use a large TLSA position to generate weekly income without the hassle of buying LEAPS, and all that entails
I do have a small saving grace insomuch as I do hold 65x June 2026 +p270's, so in principle I can sell 6500 TSLA for $270 at that moment in time (not before, I have no possibility of early exercise with my broker). Only issue there is that I have 65x Sep 2024 -p270's written against them, but with 2.5 years to get out of those I'm sure the opportunity will come
Dealer deltas decreased almost 50% today, **maybe** some relief coming soon:
Musk’s Miserable Drama
Kidding!
It means Mandatory Morning Dip, the dip we so often see in the AM.
OK, started the process to roll my 60x Dec 2025 +c200's to June 2026 - in itself a fairly painless task, the June calls are +$7, a small price to pay for an extra 6 month of time IMO
But the painful part is that some idiot paid $122 for those +c200's (long story...) and selling them off at $50 is a $420k realised loss - now I know most are happy to take such a loss to decrease their taxes, but I like to keep my profits steady to avoid questions and audits
So I'm doing them in tranches, and started with buying 11x June +c200 today @$56.3, looked to sell off the Dec 2025's, but going to write some weeklies against them to get the $7 back, right just leave them yet, don't know! So added 10x more to 2/16 -c190 @$5.30 (10x more of those and I get the Dec 2026's for free, hmmm, might be worth the risk on that...)
And while I was at it, I spotted I had 6x Sep -c270's sitting there with 60% gains, going nowhere, so I bought those back to free up the contracts for weeklies
And god results for META and AMZN, colour me jealous, but helps lift all stocks...
But the painful part is that some idiot paid $122 for those +c200's (long story...) and selling them off at $50 is a $420k realised loss - now I know most are happy to take such a loss to decrease their taxes, but I like to keep my profits steady to avoid questions and audits
So I'm doing them in tranches, and started with buying 11x June +c200 today @$56.3, looked to sell off the Dec 2025's, but going to write some weeklies against them to get the $7 back, right just leave them yet, don't know! So added 10x more to 2/16 -c190 @$5.30 (10x more of those and I get the Dec 2026's for free, hmmm, might be worth the risk on that...)
And while I was at it, I spotted I had 6x Sep -c270's sitting there with 60% gains, going nowhere, so I bought those back to free up the contracts for weeklies
And god results for META and AMZN, colour me jealous, but helps lift all stocks...
Sigh…those were the days…how long until our turn?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Possible upcoming TSLA price action below. Note that EW is far more concerned with price levels and internal sub-wave structure than specific timing:
DYODD/NFA
DYODD/NFA
Last edited:
I'll probably sell more CC's that I’ll trade in and out of if we get above 210 since i think there's going to be lot of yoyo'ing for a couple months back down to the 180's.
Feels like 180 - 220 would form a channel for a few months, but you know how it goes with TSLA
I'd like some stability to get things straightened out and buy more shares down here
Similar threads
