It was, inevitable. And now we’re here. GLTA50sma/200sma death cross
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Death Cross Definition: How and When It Happens
A death cross is a chart pattern that occurs when a security's short-term moving average drops below its longer-term moving average.www.investopedia.com
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
It's just crazy how many times we've seen this ratio of TSLA red, everything else green for 6 straight weeks now
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
There are now 3 short term catalyst which we sink us lower after FOMC no rate cut in March.
1. Price cut in USA (seem inevitable)
2. Macro deflation today with rest of M7 earning
3. The "Death Cross" news spreading and scaring the normal folk to sell-off
@tivoboy - would love to hear his thought
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Lots of uncertainty with Elon threatening to leave. I'm surprised we aren't lower. At least now we know why he made the threat.
I don't really think it's that because we were already in week 4 or so of just day after day, week after week of this. And this whole sell off started on Tesla actually beating P/D expectations so go figure. Elon and Tesla didn't exactly help with the comp situation being aired over Twitter.
The more amazing thing is the consistently of the selloff and underperformance by TSLA in the face of macro's ripping higher. Can't remember a time the stock has done something like this. It isn't comparable to last Nov/Dec because the macro's themselves were in a big sell off.
Longer out there, I do view this as a last attempt, throw everything and the kitchen sink at the stock to load up on shares as low as possible for a major rally in later 2024 and into 2025.
OK, the possibility to re-enter the 60cx 2/16 -c185's was coming, but decided now I was out of those to stay out, so added 10x 2/9 -c190 & 50x 2/16 -c190
Of course made this trade at 12:45, just before the stock ran back up to green, hey ho...
So 50x -p190/-c190 straddle for next week, then 50x -p185/-c190 strangle the week after -> beginning to look bit more sensible, need to get those strangles$20 wide, but given that last week they were -$20, it's definite progress!
Of course made this trade at 12:45, just before the stock ran back up to green, hey ho...
So 50x -p190/-c190 straddle for next week, then 50x -p185/-c190 strangle the week after -> beginning to look bit more sensible, need to get those strangles$20 wide, but given that last week they were -$20, it's definite progress!
From Investopedia:
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The death cross appears on a chart when a stock’s short-term moving average, usually the 50-day, crosses below its long-term moving average, usually the 200-day.
- Despite the dramatic name, the death cross has been followed by above-average short-term returns in recent years
- The rise of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average is known as a golden cross, and can signal the exhaustion of downward market momentum.
If you search the Tesla website for in inventory Model Y you will see that almost all vehicles are discounted $3,000-$8,000, so price cut in effect already
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Long term we are golden. Short term too much FUD. Fuel to dump further till then.
We may see much lower before rebounding to 200+
Don't wish the SP to go lower, but I did add +130P exp 3/1/24 for couple cents. Will round that off with some FOTM Call aiming mid 2024 later on for more cents on the dip. "Shitplay" as Max would always said.
In the meantime I just copy Yoona's safe IC play and trade in between
Attachments
When you're buying the long dated puts how far out do you look, and how early do you look to close them?
Okay, thanks.
Anyone here knows how to write a macro for TOS for pay, or knows someone who can?
Short QUICK answer between blood draws - nothing good. I think the 50 is only going to accelerate the more we sit in this range, and we will. As I posted what last week, there are not many company or macro positive catalysts on the horizon. While the DC isnt the be all and end all, it is a big TA factor that programmatic trading uses and WILL use and as it accelerates down - which it will, that opportunity increases.
What we have had in the short term, is a buyers strike and I think any significant buyers other than fanboys / and girls, want a bigger discount.
Regarding catalysts - I believe Elon said he was going to do some sort of talk on X on Tesla future about a week after the 10K came out....
I'm starting to wonder on a few levels about that. The auto manufacturing business + the energy business do not yield a >40 P/E. To get there, you need FSD or one of the other initiatives to be on the path towards success. Specifically with FSD, unless you can actually get something to Level 4/5 (without regulator approval), it is worthless. As an auto business, Tesla needs more consumer outreach; the inventory discounts are significant if not unexpected in Q1.
That doesn't mean I am ready to jump ship right now... just that assumptions on things that have a low probabilty of success need to be kept in check as uncertainty changes.
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