Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

Market is overblown on AI lately. All Elon have to do was mentioned AI 100x last earning and we would have Moon

SMCI - 1000% YTD

Based on recent data last 2 out of 3 times we have a big green candles are followed by additional gain the next day.

 

[Jim Holder]

Just FYI a bunch of EW techs are looking for rotation from the area zone we reached today ($200-$208) down to lower lows. May not be a straight line down, may not pass $180 or $175, and may not happen at all, just good to hear alternate views and keep them in mind when deciding any big bets.

At least the upper range coincides with @dl003's $209 being *very* strong resistance.

If they’re all saying that range is likely it for this run, then the only disagreement is how deep the retracement will be. They’re saying lower lows. @dl003 seems to imply it won’t be deep at all if $175 was indeed the low.






Some EW tech looking for this:

View attachment 1018746

cont./

Additional confluence. Seems rare consensus among varied disciplines that $205-$210 can likely be it and then expect TSLA rotate back down (unless TSLA closes above of course).

The only disagreement seems to be the depth of the retracement:

• StockWaves EW sees lower lows of $160's after hitting near $206 area.
• WickedStocks sees $177-$173 area after hitting near $210.99 area
• @dl003 says $175 may already have been the low and $194 area may be the extent of the retracement and $209 is very strong resistance (@dl003 correct?)

WICKED STOCKS UPDATE
WickedStocks says trading over $200.03 sees $206.27 tomorrow, and over that can see $210.99 same day where it can top out. And unless TSLA closes over $210.99 expect a gradual rotation back down to $177-172 area over 3-5 weeks and TSLA can trade inside the $210-$175 wedge through March. A close above $210.99 opens the door toward the $240's-$250's over the next 3-5 weeks.

He also suggests taking profits at/near $210.99 and flipping short like +P170 puts for 90 days out (to preserve time/delta) for the rotation down. But if doing so to stay prepared to reverse if TSLA closes above $210.99.

 

[BornToFly]

I just HAD to sell -200CC yesterday for next week....
Red $4 in one day.

Looking at rolls - I can roll to March 15 215 strike. I have lots of Put spreads expiring that day with Puts at -195 and -210. So closing above 210 would finally get rid of lots of BPSs.

I could roll to July 260 for a small credit.

I could roll to Jan 2025 for strikes in the 250-300 range depending on how much credit I want.

I just don't know if we blast through 210 and keep going or pullback....

 

[Jim Holder]

I just don't know if we blast through 210 and keep going or pullback....

NFA: It seems from reviewing the data from reputable TSLA TA technicians' forecasts that it should top out very soon, maybe $206-$209 area max.

But TSLA can be erratic as we know, so need to keep an eye on it.

I have 10x -C210 for 2/23 and 10x -C210 for 3/1, both not very red (but I could have gotten more premium had I waited...) and I'm not worried about them. I'll be glad to roll.

My 20x -C260 8/16/24 (6 months) however has also gone around $3.50 red, but there's so much time and events between now and then I'm not concerned about them either. I plan to BTC at b/e or close on next dip if we don't break $194 or hold for longer if we retrace deeper down.

 

[Jim Holder]

Tomorrow's GEX plot: No puts and all ITM calls
What kind of shenanigans will we see?

 

[BornToFly]

Reminder: Market is closed Monday....

 

[Jim Holder]

Next week GEX looking green too as puts dry up:

2/23

 

[phantasms]

Next week GEX looking green too as puts dry up:

2/23

Excuse my ignorance but those would be equivalent to call walls on the max pain chart correct? So, if market makers take hold, it’s bearish, no?

 

[Jim Holder]

Excuse my ignorance but those would be equivalent to call walls on the max pain chart correct? So, if market makers take hold, it’s bearish, no?

I believe so. I was taught to call them GEX walls vs call walls.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758306100217041066

 

[ShareLofty]

Thats what I mean. the pop was stupid and I myself told my friends its gonna fade.

Another big L

 

[Jim Holder]

Another big L

Hey let’s try to be nice here. Check the chart, it did fade and then it ran. Everyone won.

 

[intelligator]

At about $185 I closed 3/1 +p170/-p200 at a loss , something like $14.50, yikes! I didn't want to play the roll game any longer. Also need to stay out of margin call territory . 4/19 was the target but it's so darn sketchy. Going to play safe and stay well OTM with new sells the next 3 months or so to earn that back $1.5 per week. Taking my lumps now; the score matters most year end.

Ouch! i regret closing these so early. My sights were on 175, not 200! As of today's close, I could have saved 1/3 had I waited ... possibly rode these out a bit. I'll take a look at what is sensible to recoup some of this loss, with less risk.

For those that held on, great courage, excellent read !

 

[intelligator]

I'm here, LOL. Yesterday and today I scaled into these SMCI IC, one side at a time to average about $3 each. There wasn't enough movement to get out of the winning side of either but feel comfortable letting these ride to Friday. Will inch in again tomorrow if worth the while. Nothing to do with TSLA weekly, for me. Still waiting for that good blip to deal with put spreads that are under water. That's all for me today.

View attachment 1018023

You saw my TSLA F-U , not all is doom and gloom. I saw what was forming with this trade, flip rolled the call side to put spreads, 800 and 805 short side, 40 wide each 2/14, for a decent credit ... no loss here, yay, fight the good fight, friends!

 

[intelligator]

I’m simply going to play PPI for tomorrow morning and a relief rally and then sell Mar 24 205 or 210. -cc

Mar 22 205 or 210 look good, flow wise, 15th less good, 8th good with less premium, 1st no good. Baring monthly which is third week as I understand it, Mar 24 you meant Mar 22 , no ? Asking for a firend

 

[dl003]

Another big L

This is why this board is getting more and more toxic every day.

Do me a favor everyone, if tomorrow I stop posting pls dont tag me or ask what Im doing. Just let me say goodbye to this cesspool once and for all.

 

[john tanglewoo]

This is why this board is getting more and more toxic every day.

Do me a favor everyone, if tomorrow I stop posting pls dont tag me or ask what Im doing. Just let me say goodbye to this cesspool once and for all.

Just ignore the trolls man, they are everywhere!

 

[intelligator]

This is why this board is getting more and more toxic every day.

Do me a favor everyone, if tomorrow I stop posting pls dont tag me or ask what Im doing. Just let me say goodbye to this cesspool once and for all.

I couldn't agree more. A lousy unfounded sour dig from a non-contributor was my first impression... I didn't bother commenting on that distasteful vibe.

 

[dl003]

cont./

Additional confluence. Seems rare consensus among varied disciplines that $205-$210 can likely be it and then expect TSLA rotate back down (unless TSLA closes above of course).

The only disagreement seems to be the depth of the retracement:

• StockWaves EW sees lower lows of $160's after hitting near $206 area.
• WickedStocks sees $177-$173 area after hitting near $210.99 area
• @dl003 says $175 may already have been the low and $194 area may be the extent of the retracement and $209 is very strong resistance (@dl003 correct?)

WICKED STOCKS UPDATE
WickedStocks says trading over $200.03 sees $206.27 tomorrow, and over that can see $210.99 same day where it can top out. And unless TSLA closes over $210.99 expect a gradual rotation back down to $177-172 area over 3-5 weeks and TSLA can trade inside the $210-$175 wedge through March. A close above $210.99 opens the door toward the $240's-$250's over the next 3-5 weeks.

He also suggests taking profits at/near $210.99 and flipping short like +P170 puts for 90 days out (to preserve time/delta) for the rotation down. But if doing so to stay prepared to reverse if TSLA closes above $210.99.

View attachment 1018811

View attachment 1018812

View attachment 1018813

175 is the low until it hits 209, then if its really bearish another big leg down can begin. I say this because in every other crash in the past, the stock always retraced at least 0.381 before a new major leg down began, if there was one. not 0.5 or 0.618. 0.381 at 209. So Im not saying there will be another leg down after 209 but my plan for the bounce stops there.

 

[ChiefRollo]

175 is the low until it hits 209, then if its really bearish another big leg down can begin. I say this because in every other crash in the past, the stock always retraced at least 0.381 before a new major leg down began, if there was one. not 0.5 or 0.618. 0.381 at 209. So Im not saying there will be another leg down after 209 but my plan for the bounce stops there.

Thank you. I appreciate you.