Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[BornToFly]

Alternate EW update: Could be today's high was it for "iv" of (i) and possibly the start down to $170-$160 area.
If TSLA gets over the recent high and exceeds $211, then the lows are probably in.

Definitely. All the charts are saying we could go up OR down from here.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTO SMCI C700 (2/234) $ 78.97

STC $81.20 (bit too late but still... profit)

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760326883135442952

 

[Jim Holder]

Definitely. All the charts are saying we could go up OR down from here.

Lol. Of course. But when patterns emerge on the chart to support the probability (not certainty) of one direction preferred over the other, then it's worth paying attention IMO.

 

[ChiefRollo]

Lol. Of course. But when patterns emerge on the chart to support the probability (not certainty) of one direction preferred over the other, then it's worth paying attention IMO.

That’s all we can (try to) do. If it were any easier, we would be doing something else.

 

[BornToFly]

Fed Minutes release at 2pm Eastern today. There is some concern of a rate Hike coming. Hopefully the market responds positively to the Minutes.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

quant vanna 190-210, gamma 200

(i trust vanna more than gamma)

There literally is no put-wall-protection whatsoever for next Friday, so I guess we might revisit 190 before getting 210. Today's top I count as 200 reached, but not crossed . And I hope Jim's EW warning , which should be fueled bij an NVDA ER-miss for sure, will not be the path to follow. I seriously doubt NVDA missing any target, so stay with my "$TSLA crossing 200 within 2 days" (not today obviously, so it will happen tomorrow if ER NVDA okay).

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Fed Minutes release at 2pm Eastern today. There is some concern of a rate Hike coming. Hopefully the market responds positively to the Minutes.

oh yeah, forgot about those as well. Surely can be a catalyst for macro moving within trading hours, so we could be bracing for two giant moves today of which 1 AH.

 

[Jim Holder]

3/8 looks quite odd at the moment

 

[Yoona]

There literally is no put-wall-protection whatsoever for next Friday, so I guess we might revisit 190 before getting 210. Today's top I count as 200 reached, but not crossed . And I hope Jim's EW warning , which should be fueled bij an NVDA ER-miss for sure, will not be the path to follow. I seriously doubt NVDA missing any target, so stay with my "$TSLA crossing 200 within 2 days" (not today obviously, so it will happen tomorrow if ER NVDA okay).

3/1

market participants (gamma) expecting 197.5-210

dealers (vanna) will try 185-210, small chance of 220

if OI walls match gamma walls, probability is higher

 

[Jim Holder]

2-HR RSI currently <72 = Bearish divergence?
Also lower RSI the 4HR on today's pop = more bearish divergence?

(@dl003?)

4-hr

 

[Jim Holder]

3/1

market participants (gamma) expecting 197.5-210

dealers (vanna) will try 185-210, small chance of 220

if OI walls match gamma walls, probability is higher

View attachment 1020453

Thanks. What do you think is going on 3/08? Seems to be a strange GEX chart (all over the place).

 

[Yoona]

Thanks. What do you think is going on 3/28? Seems to be a strange GEX chart (all over the place).

3/28 is very bullish but it's too early to tell

cluster of tall greens is "stronger wifi signal" than the small reds

a second confirmation (perhaps from vol.land) would be great

 

[Jim Holder]

3/28 is very bullish but it's too early to tell

cluster of tall greens is "stronger wifi signal" than the small reds

a second confirmation (perhaps from vol.land) would be great

View attachment 1020457

I made a mistake, typo, I meant 3/08, sorry:

 

[Yoona]

I made a mistake, typo, I meant 3/08, sorry:

View attachment 1020461

3/8 180-220, more bullish than bearish

 

[Jim Holder]

3/8 180-220, more bullish than bearish

View attachment 1020462

Thanks. All the red GEX walls down at $150-165 look ominous. Why they're there is curious.

 

[Max Plaid]

STO 50x 3/1 -p190 @$4.1

So essentially flipped 2/23 60x -p200 -> 3/1 50x -p190 / -c210 strangle, which is way more comfortable, small cost there, but not a lot

Still have 50x put contracts to deploy if needed, plus -c175's to offload if the SP drops

 

[thenewguy1979]

Definitely. All the charts are saying we could go up OR down from here.

good Analysis!

 

[BornToFly]

I don't know what to make of NVDA sell off the last two days going into earnings in a few hours. Is it a case of "somebody knows something," or is it just scared investors taking some profits...?

 

[dl003]

2-HR RSI currently <72 = Bearish divergence?
Also lower RSI the 4HR on today's pop = more bearish divergence?

(@dl003?)

View attachment 1020454
4-hr

Divergences occur when price makes a new high. Price has not made a new high yet.