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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
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ChiefRollo
Member
that’s pretty good; I would have preferred 210.03.vanna was bullseye 6 days ago in predicting
here was the snapshot at that time
if we superimpose the gamma walls back then, that's how i derived 192-210
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^^^ Using Friday's chain, are you seeing 180/182-200 for 3/1 ?
vanna was bullseye 6 days ago in predicting
here was the snapshot at that time
View attachment 1021522
if we superimpose the gamma walls back then, that's how i derived 192-210
View attachment 1021525
Below is Tradytics Vanna data for 3/1, can you check if it looks the same/close in your tool so I can know that Tadytics is fairly accurate? Trady shows mix of red and green on both sides of spot, unlike the one you posted that has green to the right of spot and red to the left.
Also what do the green and red Vanna bars imply in your Vanna tool?
Thank you.
yes, 1σ
vanna doesn't behave like gamma
+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet
- if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
- if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)
- if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
- if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
vanna is most effective in ~20Δ ranges, it will be 0 ATM (ie vanna isn't used to predict bullseye like tall gammas but can be used to predict range)
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Thank you.
Heres' what Tradytics is showing for Vanna for the coming week expiration 3/1, does it match or is similar to yours?
Plain Vanna
VannaGEX
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Summary of TradyTics's explanation of their Spot GEX:
Critical note: GEX bars are not predictive of targets, but of dealer support fueling momentum as trading moves toward them
Green bars above spot= Fuels bullish momentum, the larger the bar the stronger the effect
Red bars below spot= Fuels bearish momentum, the larger the bar the stronger the effect
Green bars below spot= Support/pinning
Red bars above spot= Resistance/pinning
Small/no Gamma bars=illiquid zone/prices can move faster inside them
EXAMPLE
TSLA 3/1 expiration:
BULLISH
1) There's dealer resistance from $190 to $197.50 (red bars to the right of spot)
2) If we get past the resistance, then dealers join and help fuel move (green bars after $197.50) until $202.50 where there's dealer selling/resistance (red bar).
3) Get past that and dealers really join the bullish momo all the way to $205.00/$207.50 (red bar)
BEARISH
1) $190 is greased to the downside (the red bar below spot), indicating dealers fueling momentum down if market begins to sell.
2) Some dealer support (i.e., brakes) appears @ $187.50 (small green bar)
3) If trading gets below that then we have a ghost zone (i.e. possible freefall) if TSLA continues to sell down
4) Dealers will help accelerate downtrend at $185 (red bar) all the way until $175.00 (green bar)
Critical note: GEX bars are not predictive of targets, but of dealer support fueling momentum as trading moves toward them
Green bars above spot= Fuels bullish momentum, the larger the bar the stronger the effect
Red bars below spot= Fuels bearish momentum, the larger the bar the stronger the effect
Green bars below spot= Support/pinning
Red bars above spot= Resistance/pinning
Small/no Gamma bars=illiquid zone/prices can move faster inside them
EXAMPLE
TSLA 3/1 expiration:
BULLISH
1) There's dealer resistance from $190 to $197.50 (red bars to the right of spot)
2) If we get past the resistance, then dealers join and help fuel move (green bars after $197.50) until $202.50 where there's dealer selling/resistance (red bar).
3) Get past that and dealers really join the bullish momo all the way to $205.00/$207.50 (red bar)
BEARISH
1) $190 is greased to the downside (the red bar below spot), indicating dealers fueling momentum down if market begins to sell.
2) Some dealer support (i.e., brakes) appears @ $187.50 (small green bar)
3) If trading gets below that then we have a ghost zone (i.e. possible freefall) if TSLA continues to sell down
4) Dealers will help accelerate downtrend at $185 (red bar) all the way until $175.00 (green bar)
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According to StockWaves, if TSLA remains weak (below $200-$205), this may be how it'll play out:
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Seem 3/1 range will be between 500 and 512 on the Gamma and Vanna Chart. Some recovery week of 3/8 and more drastic drop on 3/15 and 3/22? No Vanna on those weeks yet?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
If we bounce past 197.5 chance of reaching 202.5. If not 165 and below will playout. This may aligned with that SPY dumb mid of March per Yoona's chart.
Thanks Jim and Yoona.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
They all went to the NVDA and SMCI be the house forums. Just crickets here…..
@Yoona I investigated TradyTics’s Spot Gamma tool further and learnt that it is not equivalent to Vol-Land’s “Dealer Hedging Requirements.” It’s just plain GEX. I apologize for false excitement.
I reached out to TradyTic’s developer Haider and asked him if they have the data equivalent somewhere else, I’ll post if I hear back.
I reached out to TradyTic’s developer Haider and asked him if they have the data equivalent somewhere else, I’ll post if I hear back.
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