Swaggy has a historical chart: Options Max Pain - Calculations for SPY
It's supposed to go back 1 year, but I can't get that option to work, at least not with Safari
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
It's supposed to go back 1 year, but I can't get that option to work, at least not with Safari
So I take it your little world doesn't have any sort of macro correction/pullback?
Doesn't matter how much we believe in Tesla, if the market corrects here (and it sure does look like it will before it goes materially higher), then TSLA is gonna be pressured just as much, if not more, as other stocks.
I’d be careful committing to either direction fully at the moment.
What is your M4X showing currently?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
MA4X has played out and fulfilled 25% downward as I explained a (few?)week(s) ago. So now we are in nowhereland. all-time-lows-line (red-dotted) still there so we could hit that around 140 or higher technically. But it does not have to, I guess soon we will enter the old purple wedge again that has to be broken upward, for the stock to gain momentum. (So above 250)
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Tesla is lagging and has had it’s hit before and everybody knows that, even WS. Plus if there is a Macro correction it will not last past march in my world, referring to other election years where march is year low. I do not believe a recession, but watch the first ratecut carefully. That can induce a short but big sell-off. But That will not happen anytime soon in my world.
I'm with ya on the general sentiment that whatever the macros correct to, it has to happen soon. But my timeframe for that macro pullback in the next 2-3 months and not just March. I do think March is the most likely month for it to happen.
But I'm not willing to reposition to a full on bullish strategy until I see how low TSLA goes when that macro pullback happens.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I believe this shows the max pain and share price values as of each Friday close, and MP could have changed dramatically during the previous week. What I’m curious about is whether MP a week or two ahead of time predicts with any accuracy future SP. For example, does MP as of a Monday “day zero” predict SP for “day 11”?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I’m now holding -c190/195/197.5/202.5 after doubling some contracts to roll up. But I think there’s more risk to the upside in the short term now that we’ve overtaken and are holding 200, on higher volume than last week.
I wonder if the big boys are starting to load up for the ER while we’re languishing down here around 200. Based on this week’s pattern, maybe they buy in the morning and then let the stock drift down the rest of the day, then do it again the next morning.
I wonder if the big boys are starting to load up for the ER while we’re languishing down here around 200. Based on this week’s pattern, maybe they buy in the morning and then let the stock drift down the rest of the day, then do it again the next morning.
If they were knowledgeable about TSLA, they would buy in the afternoons
TSLA dropped all the way to 175 while the macro's were hitting ATH's. That's the exact opposite of what I wanted to see.
There's no way to know if that 175 will hold in a macro pullback or not. We just have to wait for the pullback to happen and see if it does hold. But until that macro pullback happens, it's hard to go full on bullish on TSLA.
Can you explain in simple words why a rate cut might induce a selloff, isn’t a rate cut what everyone’s waiting for—especially for Tesla that’s interest rate sensitive—and any hint of a cut sooner always boosted equities instead of hurting it. In fact when data came out that the rate cut may be delayed the markets softened on the news.
It's been shown that almost all of the time, the first rate cut is associated with impending recession/recession already started as the Fed (throughout history) is always too late to cut.
Having said that, if we are in a true goldilocks scenario (which a lot of data shows we are), then this time could be different. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the market sells off in March because the Fed does NOT cut rates.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Historically, the first ratecut is issued when something broke. So not the ratecut but the reason will induce a sell-off if severe enough. In history there is only one exception in many cases.
If they’re big buyers, the SP will be going up whenever they buy - so if they bought in the afternoon we’d be seeing a different pattern with the price rise in the afternoon.If they were knowledgeable about TSLA, they would buy in the afternoons
Look at the volume drop off right around 8:30 ET today, which is the start of the slow drift down. Looks to me like that’s when the buyer stopped buying. We were above average volume in the morning but then traded less than 100M shares today.
maybe sell-off in macro because expectations already baked in etc ..
but net positive for tesla, cars, homes in general ... loans get cheaper ...
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Similar threads
