Shut down +750p-850p/-1360c+1460c for 40% gain. Yeah, a little closer to SP on calls side than I should have gone. Interesting that I opened this while SP was 1115, closed at 1157, value burned off in 5 hours. Will review all data points again tonight, reset to a new position tomorrow.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
same here... STO 3.15 BTC 1.27, 62% daytrade gain, round 2 tom (rinse repeat 6Δ = 2σ = 94% chance of success)
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Odd PA stuck at $178-$179 when MM GEX will support moves all the way to $185 (the green bars on left, slowed by the red on right) 
Maybe it's the 0.236 fib?
Maybe it's the 0.236 fib?
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
BTO jan '25 C 180@ 34.45 against some shares.
(earlier on I closed some long-term -puts with almost no profit)
(earlier on I closed some long-term -puts with almost no profit)
i sold Jan 25 270's CCs for $10(again) ...
if it dips by 0.50 I make around $1500 and can close it, and wait for a bounce, which I did today one time roundtrip.
As soon as I sell, I am using proceeds to then sell 2-3 ATM PUTS and further try my luck that way
to make $1500 at 0.05-0.08 Delta, the risk of a vertical short spread is a lot
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Volume’s been low and stock is weak AF on a big NASDAQ up day. I think the fear of weak delivery numbers will be an overhang the next few weeks and then ER after that if numbers are as weak as expected. Nobody has FOMO on this stock right now.
I’m wondering if maybe the quarterly expiration on Friday is holding us up around 180 for now? The SP dropped hard the week after the January options expired this year.
Holding -c180/182.50/185 for Friday and bought some +p175 for this week and +p170 fo next.
I’m wondering if maybe the quarterly expiration on Friday is holding us up around 180 for now? The SP dropped hard the week after the January options expired this year.
Holding -c180/182.50/185 for Friday and bought some +p175 for this week and +p170 fo next.
Are you saying maybe a huge drop after OPEX or capped because of OPEX and may see some relief after? If drop, to where do you think?
I’m mostly flat on shorts (short calls/long puts) except for a few -C260 9/20 which I’ll hold in case we fall more. Was thinking of buying a few +P175 out to June (they cost more but don’t bleed as much while waiting) but consolidating here a few days and surviving $172 today makes it a bit hard to justify.
It isn't helping that China weekly numbers continue to come in soft.
I don't think the next 3 weeks look pretty
I’m wondering if the inertia of all the contracts that have accumulated are keeping the SP near max pain for this week (via delta hedging or MM rebalancing or whatever). So what happens next week if we still have no buyers?
I fear it could go…lower than this. But I have no idea and would love to be wrong. I’ve just learned the importance of protecting against downside after the last couple years so I’m going to hedge a bit.
TSLA Seers like @tivoboy was preparing for a high likelihood of TSLA being <$180 mid- to end of March way back when we were trading up at $220 and sold calls up there and cashed in nicely down hereIt isn't helping that China weekly numbers continue to come in soft.
I don't think the next 3 weeks look pretty
That’s the way it’s done for sure!
@tivoboy are you setting up the other way now buying LEAP calls down here (which strike/DTE?) or wait-and-see for now/may be in for more pain?
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I'm not buying any equity or LEAPS just yet.. WOTE
Are you going to wait to see if that 146 gap fills or just start buying starting in the 160's?
(If the stock ends up breaking down past 170)
I've pretty much posted the game plan and it hasn't changed...it's an @t vs. @dl battle royal at the moment... one sees an absolute floor and the other sees a trap door. As I've said before, I CAN see a 14x drop somewhere here, but that takes me out another 90 days.. but I'm going to ACCUMULATE in the mid-mid/high $16x range, and accelerate down to $15x. TWT
Thanks for this. Can you elaborate a bit on what you’re seeing in 90-days (June/July), is that to coincide with Q2 P&D, court cases, proxy vote, rate cut, massive macro correction which will drag TSLA with it, or just waves/chart based?
It’s Tesla, it’s macro, it’s secular, it’s EV industry, it’s NOVEMBER, it’s fed rate cuts, etc. I try and discount all this when i apply it to a stock price. What has what weighted impact.. what has what vulnerability. TA is GREAT and AFTER I do my macro and drill down economic analysis, I look to where the TA aligns - or doesn’t. Often, that is where I make the most money. Where my thesis and projection for what is to COME does NOT line up with what the rote TA would predict. TA is instructive. TA is informative. TA is FOLLOWED and used to participate and often move markets. IN the SHORT to at most MEDIUM term. In the end, over longer duration, fundamentals, ECONOMY, politics, consumer demand, competition, etc. etc. will bear out. So, in the short term I can certainly follow the TA and we’ve seen that bear much fruit for sure. I’m an investor and THEN a swing trader and THEN an options buyer or writer more for the near to mid medium term opportunities based on a disconnect between the market and what my thesis indicates.
We know the quarter will be a challenge with a number of factors in play, I guess my big question is if Tesla will provide hope or just more despair on the earnings call.
My purchase strategy is pretty similar, and I am happy to sell another 10-15% of my TSLA holdings above $200-210. I just want to have more cash as we get closer to November.
I will begin to be in the cash raising phase by May.. I had ~ 225K written in calls across portfolios through end of this week. I’ll keep ~ 88% of that overall. Had a little NVDA called away but at $900.. at this point WTFC…I’m now working to write even more calls than that for May/June expiration.
Overall, the strategic positioning will be short SPY, short QQQ, long VIX, short most of the tech sector with a few exceptions. NOT long TSLA unless I get my entry prices, and at that point I’m still willing to accept another 15-20% drop before any recovery. There will come a time, to buy LEAPS and to lever back into either sectors or indices… IMHO, that time is not right now. Not with leverage. I’m still long, but writing.
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