Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

It’s Tesla, it’s macro, it’s secular, it’s EV industry, it’s NOVEMBER, it’s fed rate cuts, etc. I try and discount all this when i apply it to a stock price. What has what weighted impact.. what has what vulnerability. TA is GREAT and AFTER I do my macro and drill down economic analysis, I look to where the TA aligns - or doesn’t. Often, that is where I make the most money. Where my thesis and projection for what is to COME does NOT line up with what the rote TA would predict. TA is instructive. TA is informative. TA is FOLLOWED and used to participate and often move markets. IN the SHORT to at most MEDIUM term. In the end, over longer duration, fundamentals, ECONOMY, politics, consumer demand, competition, etc. etc. will bear out. So, in the short term I can certainly follow the TA and we’ve seen that bear much fruit for sure. I’m an investor and THEN a swing trader and THEN an options buyer or writer more for the near to mid medium term opportunities based on a disconnect between the market and what my thesis indicates.

Thanks but confused but thanks but still confused.....got it TA and the thesis.........still confused. Brain hurts.

 

[Jim Holder]

We know the quarter will be a challenge with a number of factors in play, I guess my big question is if Tesla will provide hope or just more despair on the earnings call.

My purchase strategy is pretty similar, and I am happy to sell another 10-15% of my TSLA holdings above $200-210. I just want to have more cash as we get closer to November.

Each of the previous 4 earnings calls were more despairing than the next. Before the last one I hoped that FOR SURE someone spoke to Elon to be more upbeat, and another taught the CFO to speak more clearly and in English, or better yet have someone speak instead, but was the same grim-reapers all around. Watch everyone position bearish for a fifth repeat of Halloween and instead it doesn't go as bad and bounces because it's priced in...(one can dream...)....

 

[Jim Holder]

Thanks but confused but thanks but still confused.....got it TA and the thesis.........still confused. Brain hurts.

Woof!

 

[Max Plaid]

Earlier I took advantage of the pop and BTC 4x NVDA 3/22 -p970 @$86.1 (net +$40), these written yesterday

Put a limit sell for 7x 3/22 -p900's @$50.1, but it just missed while I was out playing music... went with 5x @$40.1 just before close

It'll do, for the moment

 

[Jim Holder]

We got the obvious MOAT

We got the obvious BOAT

And looks like the BOAT is about to give way to the downside. If that bear flag's measured moved comes to fruition (i.e., downside=length of the flag pole), then $144ish gap fill is definitely in sight (looking at you @tivoboy...)

Also not liking the fact that TSLA has not been rallying in the face of daily ATH's on QQQ/SPY

Bulls need to get the BOING happening in the stock ASAP. Any violation of the BOAT would be hazardous to longs.

Credit: Heisenberg

 

[BornToFly]

This is tough. I'm nervous about selling long dated CCs. Would definitely need a stop loss. Sure, EPS isn't going to be great this quarter, but the new FSD 12.3 videos are incredible. Nobody else will go door to door, including highways, on non-geofenced roads. And Tesla is doing it without tens of thousands of dollars/vehicle in monstrous lidar arrays. As soon as Wallstreet finally sees the light, TSLA may go like NVDA and SMCI. Don't want to be caught with long dated 200 strike CCs when the SP is at 400.

 

[Jim Holder]

This is tough. I'm nervous about selling long dated CCs. Would definitely need a stop loss. Sure, EPS isn't going to be great this quarter, but the new FSD 12.3 videos are incredible. Nobody else will go door to door, including highways, on non-geofenced roads. And Tesla is doing it without tens of thousands of dollars/vehicle in monstrous lidar arrays. As soon as Wallstreet finally sees the light, TSLA may go like NVDA and SMCI. Don't want to be caught with long dated 200 strike CCs when the SP is at 400.

I know you know from hanging out here that the time to sell CCs is that the top of the range, not down here. Unless you think this is the new top of the range and $90 is next…

I’m mainly scalping only these days, selling July/August 2024 -C250’s and -C260’s at daily/weekly highs ($182ish) and closing at inevitable lows ($173ish). Rinse repeat. And if I get run over because of a surprise I’ll just hold onto them. It’s just 10 contracts each (I can write 60 but I follow my rules not to take risks on more down here at lows). If we crack $170 then I’ll prolly sell lots more April or July 2024 -C200 or ATM + my longs and BTC at the new bottom.

 

[BornToFly]

I know you know from hanging out here that the time to sell CCs is that the top of the range, not down here. Unless you think this is the new top of the range and $90 is next…

I’m mainly scalping only these days, selling July/August 2024 -C250’s and -C260’s at daily/weekly highs ($182ish) and closing at inevitable lows ($173ish). Rinse repeat. And if I get run over because of a surprise I’ll just hold onto them. It’s just 10 contracts each (I can write 60 but I follow my rules not to take risks on more down here at lows). If we crack $170 then I’ll prolly sell lots more April or July 2024 -C200 or ATM + my longs and BTC at the new bottom.

Yeah, I was countering some of the gloom and dome posts. The SP may go down below 160, but I think FSD will cause a violent move at some point. The question is when. I think we are getting closer based on the latest videos. Cybertruck is also proving to be a much bigger hit than even I had imagined. The ramp and eventual sales numbers will be glorious.

 

[Jim Holder]

Yeah, I was countering some of the gloom and dome posts. The SP may go down below 160, but I think FSD will cause a violent move at some point. The question is when. I think we are getting closer based on the latest videos. Cybertruck is also proving to be a much bigger hit than even I had imagined. The ramp and eventual sales numbers will be glorious.

Personally I think any "FSD" induced violent rally is 2+ years out if not more. Long way to go still IMO

 

[Jim Holder]

The strategic positioning will be short SPY, short QQQ, long VIX, short most of the tech sector with a few exceptions.

Can you share with us some SPY/QQQ short positions you're considering and when to put them on, so those of us who want can follow ATOR?
Also, while "each chart its own" is a thing, especially in EW, do you think TSLA will take a further drubbing when the indices and tech sector corrects sharply or it's been beaten enough it'll just consolidate in range or move slightly in sympathy?

 

[elasalle]

This is tough. I'm nervous about selling long dated CCs. Would definitely need a stop loss. Sure, EPS isn't going to be great this quarter, but the new FSD 12.3 videos are incredible. Nobody else will go door to door, including highways, on non-geofenced roads. And Tesla is doing it without tens of thousands of dollars/vehicle in monstrous lidar arrays. As soon as Wallstreet finally sees the light, TSLA may go like NVDA and SMCI. Don't want to be caught with long dated 200 strike CCs when the SP is at 400.

upside problems are better than downside problems ...
you will have 1-2 rolls to Jan 26, Jun 26, Jan 27 ... as your underlying shares keep going up ...
nothing happening until comp package is resolved .. in terms of major announcements ... (I think)



e.g at $270, I know almost exactly how many extra millions my portfolio would have ... (Delta*SP appreciation) ... cheers!!

 

[BornToFly]

upside problems are better than downside problems ...
you will have 1-2 rolls to Jan 26, Jun 26, Jan 27 ... as your underlying shares keep going up ...
nothing happening until comp package is resolved .. in terms of major announcements ... (I think)



e.g at $270, I know almost exactly how many extra millions my portfolio would have ... (Delta*SP appreciation) ... cheers!!

Yeah, I had a new plan for dealing with my 2+ year old +170/-195 BPS. I was able to roll it last week at no cost to April 12th. My goal is to make about $15 in premium, sell shares or let them get called away by CCs, and then sell the +170 to make the -195 CSP to get the shares back. So I had sold 180CC for over $5 for this Friday. Then try again next week. Normally I don't go ATM but I have 4 more weeks to get premiums before the final phase of the plan.

 

[Discoducky]

Personally I think any "FSD" induced violent rally is 2+ years out if not more. Long way to go still IMO

I'm actively watching the V12.3 drives and am looking for signs it could be closer, but just not seeing it currently.

For instance: If FSD can navigate 50 busy (shooting the gaps) roundabouts in a row successfully (no critical disengagements or honking), I'm going to buy calls (and I NEVER buy calls).

Not sure if folks know my background...but I have some experience with this code

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm actively watching the V12.3 drives and am looking for signs it could be closer, but just not seeing it currently.

For instance: If FSD can navigate 50 busy (shooting the gaps) roundabouts in a row successfully (no critical disengagements or honking), I'm going to buy calls (and I NEVER buy calls).

Not sure if folks know my background...but I have some experience with this code

I’ve been on the Autopilot/FSD promise wagon since our first 2017 Model S. That’s seven years ago. Each of those years we were basically told by Elon “by the end of this year” it should be solved. I’m now in a 2022 Model X with the same promises

I’m used to it by now and it doesn’t bother me much as the Tesla fanatic I am. I have fun with what it can do and enjoy the incremental improvements as they come.

As for FSD adding materially to the bottom line, that’s waaay off in the future, if ever IMO. And to reconcile that with Elon saying how without FSD Tesla is just a car company (and will be valued as such) well, just look at today’s share price and where it’s heading for a taste of that

BTW Elon on where we stand with FSD (hot off the press tonight):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767748545925226795

 

[elasalle]

I'm actively watching the V12.3 drives and am looking for signs it could be closer, but just not seeing it currently.

For instance: If FSD can navigate 50 busy (shooting the gaps) roundabouts in a row successfully (no critical disengagements or honking), I'm going to buy calls (and I NEVER buy calls).

Not sure if folks know my background...but I have some experience with this code

Hey you know 300K lines of old code got removed right? cheers!!

 

[Knightshade]

This is tough. I'm nervous about selling long dated CCs. Would definitely need a stop loss. Sure, EPS isn't going to be great this quarter, but the new FSD 12.3 videos are incredible. Nobody else will go door to door, including highways, on non-geofenced roads.

I mean, not door to door EVERYWHERE yet... but there's ones in china operating in for example a nearly 200 square mile part of the capital-- and the story mentions China overall has nearly 10,000 miles of road open to autonomous vehicles- with millions of autonomous miles driven year year

Driverless taxis to start paid service in capital

A larger fleet of driverless taxis will soon be available for hire in the capital city as the Office of the Beijing High-Level Autonomous Driving Demonstration Zone has decided to launch the commercial operation of autonomous vehicles and expand their serviceable area.

www.chinadaily.com.cn

Meanwhile Teslas are still driving 0 autonomous miles annually (barring the 12.2 miles driven in 2019 at L3 for a demo video, or the 500 L3 miles driven in 2016 to cobble together the largely fraudulent 2016 video)

 

[Max Plaid]

This is tough. I'm nervous about selling long dated CCs. Would definitely need a stop loss. Sure, EPS isn't going to be great this quarter, but the new FSD 12.3 videos are incredible. Nobody else will go door to door, including highways, on non-geofenced roads. And Tesla is doing it without tens of thousands of dollars/vehicle in monstrous lidar arrays. As soon as Wallstreet finally sees the light, TSLA may go like NVDA and SMCI. Don't want to be caught with long dated 200 strike CCs when the SP is at 400.

One of the reasons why I bought a few extra Jun 26 +c200's, to cover the 20x Dec 2025 -c190's that I wrote to hedge the -p190's...

But will we get any "aha" moment on FSD or will it be a gradual thing, can't imagine any epiphany before Q1 results? I mean these videos have been out there a long time and anyone paying attention will see the improvements

Maybe when FSD is available outside of the US it will help, US media being so totally negative in EV's right now

I will continue to write 100x weekly CC's at what I think is a sensible strike, not necessarily a safe one, which around here is 190, for the moment, already wrote next week's last week for +$3.1, again these written against +c200 LEAPS and can be rolled out to +C300's to escape

As of now the stock is being ignored, nobody wants it, and I do wonder where it will go if P&D and earnings disappoint

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767869394560884864

 

[ProfessorZoom]

View attachment 1027227
Credit: Heisenberg

What's the significance of the 144.3 gap? There's plenty close to that right below 144.3 and some above

 

[Jim Holder]

What's the significance of the 144.3 gap? There's plenty close to that right below 144.3 and some above

View attachment 1027361

Just some levels to keep in mind