Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Right_Said_Fred]

I'm a bit surprised by the strength in pre-market. Not so good for my puts, but it will give me a better entry price or strike on the put spreads.

 

[BornToFly]

FOMC tomorrow and Wednesday. I'm assuming rate decisions revealed Wednesday.

I wish we could get back to a world where nobody cares about the FOMC. I never knew who the heck Powell was until the last two years....

 

[Max Plaid]

FOMC tomorrow and Wednesday. I'm assuming rate decisions revealed Wednesday.

I wish we could get back to a world where nobody cares about the FOMC. I never knew who the heck Powell was until the last two years....

Yeah, and 2 / 5 / 10Y rates, where the hell did they come from??

 

[thenewguy1979]

everyone selling at open....

 

[Knightshade]

I sold some 180c for Friday at $1, and some 185s for 0.50... bring on the steamroller I guess

 

[thenewguy1979]

closed my +157.5P as everyone was selling off. Waiting to reenter depending on FOMC. Why risk it when Macro too strong today.

 

[Singuy]

There's no such thing as a "disengagement rate" for humans- and suggesting there is misunderstands what disengagements are.

Disengagement rate is not accident rate.

They're the human, performing the OEDR task, recognizing something the system is NOT recognizing that needs to be recognized and taking over full control to correct or avoid the issue. There'd be lots of disengagements, with Tesla not having a complete OEDR, that wouldn't necessarily lead to an accident.


Disengagement rate may well be a useful measure of how much the system is improving from one version to another- but does not, inherently, tell us if the system is safe without a human (short of, as you say, some insanely insanely low disengagement rate far in excess of human accident rate).


If you're talking about an L5 system it's even more complex-- because the existing fleet providing the disengagement rate has a lot of selection bias. A super low disengagement rate in southern CA, where the most concentration of Teslas (and the most training data) is from doesn't necessarily indicate one in rural Nebraska where there's relatively little training data and cows wandering into the road or whatever.


Anyway, we already know from previous data the accident rate of FSDb is lower than just a human-- if that's your goal we've already been there for a while.

The problem is you can't remove the human because FSDb does not have a complete OEDR (or any fallback capabilities that L4 and L5 requires). Don't misunderstand "L2 that keeps getting better" as L4. It's fundamentally not.

One can assume a disengagement from autonomous vehicle is correlated closely to an accident from a human driver.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Not touch TSLA till FOMC decision.

Meanwhile going do the 2DTE ICs 10 delta on NVDA this Wednesday after FOMC. Safer with more reward as Yoona mentioned.

@Yoona safe ICs for TSLA and NVDA this week?

 

[BornToFly]

everyone selling at open....

NIO mirrored TSLA. I like to watch both so I can get a feel if it is an EV thing vs TSLA thing.

 

[Yoona]

Not touch TSLA till FOMC decision.

Meanwhile going do the 2DTE ICs 10 delta on NVDA this Wednesday after FOMC. Safer with more reward as Yoona mentioned.

@Yoona safe ICs for TSLA and NVDA this week?

i find 6 delta is safe but will wait 2 or 3 dte

 

[Max Plaid]

If we step back from our emotions and naturally bullish stance on TSLA, who would seriously be buying the stock right now, ahead of what is widely believed to be a very poor P@D, and likely even worse earnings coming up in a few weeks?

Even we've been selling stock, a few with no plans to buy back in

And the number of times I've heard the phrase "already priced in", often from myself, and it never is...

Don't get me wrong, the stock could go up, down, nowhere, I have no clue. Despite all the reading of tea-leaves, it's essentially random

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Man I am thinking about closing my calls. Dl004 bull divergence was about fsd apparently. V12 has rave reviews from practically everyone and something like this might get licensed by legacy auto. The first legacy auto that license the thing will give Tesla 1trillion dollars MC statues overnight.

V12 progress makes me nervous about any CC's I have as well. But I think there's a good chance that if next month does see 12.4 which will supposedly have the ability to summon, park, reverse and it's not really janky, that could be the a mini ChatGP moment right there.

Those are the last need functionality needed for Robotaxi's. Note I'm not saying it would be up the consistency level of Robotaxi, just that full functionality is there.

 

[thenewguy1979]

i find 6 delta is safe but will wait 2 or 3 dte

Compared the premium for 2 and 3 DTE at 6 delta. Lot better due to the IVs. Going try the play on Thursday.
IMO seem the AI hype will continue till at least Q1 earning for NVDA. Might as well go with the flow.

 

[thenewguy1979]

If we step back from out emotions and naturally bullish stance on TSLA, who would seriously be buying the stock right now, ahead what is widely believed to be a very poor P@D, and likely even worse earnings coming up in a few weeks?

Even we've been selling stock, a few with no plans to buy back in

And the number of times I've heard the phrase "already priced in", often from myself, and it never is...

Don't get me wrong, the stock could go up, down, nowhere, I have no clue. Despite all the reading of tea-leaves, it's essentially random

No one buying here based on the forum feedback. It's auntie Cathie Wood.

 

[BornToFly]

Aargh. Closed my -150/+160P for next week at a bit of a loss near the open. I still have my -165/+170 for Friday that is doing well. I missed out on selling CCs near the open. Now I wait to see if we recover because this is just a stupid MMD, or if we drift down the entire day and I really kick myself.

 

[Knightshade]

One can assume a disengagement from autonomous vehicle is correlated closely to an accident from a human driver.

One can assume lots of things. Doesn't make them true.


Very FEW of my own disengagements, for example, are to avoid accidents. Much more often they're to either avoid FSDb making an incorrect navigation decision (with no accident danger) or to avoid annoying other drivers because of weird non-human-like stuff FSDb does that wouldn't necessarily cause an accident.

If V12 is more "human like" I'd expect a significant drop in disengagements for myself even without changing the likely accident rate at all



Also this discussion probably belongs here:

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[thenewguy1979]

Aargh. Closed my -150/+160P for next week at a bit of a loss near the open. I still have my -165/+170 for Friday that is doing well. I missed out on selling CCs near the open. Now I wait to see if we recover because this is just a stupid MMD, or if we drift down the entire day and I really kick myself.

BornToFly take a deep breath buddy. Whatever you do don't bet the whole farm. Seem stuff getting hot and heavy and we do worry about you. Be careful and sometimes take a moment or two and please check in with the team here for supports.

Love,
TheDog

 

[Yoona]

SMCI quick daytrade 37% in 7 mins, closing it now

 

[thenewguy1979]

SMCI quick daytrade 37% in 7 mins, closing it now

View attachment 1029207

I find the IC spread on SMCI is kind of Wonky, unless I go with a wide spread, else the Long can cost more then the Short

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

3/22

3/28

4/05