Tastes bittersweet to meNothing better than holdings puts when your favorite stock is going down.
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Tastes bittersweet to meNothing better than holdings puts when your favorite stock is going down.
My pessimistic view is big money is going to sit this out for two quarters. It is a lot of inventory build, which is going to cut Q2 production and reduce margins further. Tesla the company has a problem.... But, somewhere between $125-140 REALLY does for longer duration LARGE investor pools..
what are margins on the megapack? BTW, not asking explicit, just curious where the greatest returns will come from."Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh.”
Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?
Not really. I mean it will help because it's a significant jump from Q4's deployment and Tesla's gross margin on Energy hit a all time high in Q4 even though deployment/revenue was lower than Q3. That was actually a very positive sign."Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh".
Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?
"Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh.”
Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?
I doubt it can be meaningful. There are a lot of other margin gotchas out there to make it noise."Tesla also reported record Megapack installations for the first time on a delivery report: 4,053 MWh.”
Can that be any meaningful help for EPS?
ER is now 4/23It’s hard to tell how many locations are really DELIVERY locations, but some numbers are in the high 480, so with say 500, that would mean 100 cars at each location, or in transit, or sitting at a factory on average? Wouldn’t we have seen reports of that?
My personal thesis for some of the things we WERE seeing, like most M3 Highland deliveries for Mar being pushed back to May-June (that just miraculously showed up as now available and ready for delivery) was a quarterly PUSH into Q2, since Q1 was going to be a throwaway for sure.
What will happen now, is analysis of the E that is coming, which frankly could be NEGATIVE, and will buyers look past that as the anomaly that it MIGHT be, or will we get another mkt push down when those numbers come out. That’s about two weeks out on 4/17
With those numbers I would have a expected a -30% dayOnly 5% down that's nothing burger. Is anyone buying puts here?
With those numbers I would have a expected a -30% day
That’s about two weeks out on 4/17
My feeling, wait till ER numbers get adjusted today and overnight.overnight +91%, closing soon
edit : strategy is ideally wait 1 day before new STO (ie play next day's trend coz today might reverse)
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IMO, we aren't down more due to seemingly winning the price war in China and I was honestly waiting to buy more long-term shares if we went into the 140s.With those numbers I would have a expected a -30% day
I did, as insurance for more downgrades and another ER debacle.Only 5% down that's nothing burger. Is anyone buying puts here?
Yep. And this time I was hedged. Now that the number is out I feel like we go below 160$ before ER.Now I understand why they threw away 1 month of free FSD
IMO people are getting too excited about FSD 12.3. I plan to use a wait and see approach, not in any rush to deploy cash. Seems like this 1 month free FSD trial is the last demand lever Elon is using to help improve numbers. It is also a very risky approach based on the reviews I have read. Sure there are glowing reviews but there are also some reviews that make you feel this is not ready for wide release. I trust Tesla team but don't trust the new customers to pay full attention.
I feel like we will continue to chop in this range until April 1st. I don't see us trading north of 200 or south of 160 at least until ER. 160 before ER might happen if P&D is anywhere close to Troy's latest estimate. In other words I will wait for a clear break either to the upside or downside before I deploy my capital for LEAPS.