Q2 is shaping up to be better than anticipated. Risk is more to the upside than downside IMO, especially considering options market positioning for >$205 next week. Maybe that’s the next spike the experts here are referring to.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Q2 is shaping up to be better than anticipated. Risk is more to the upside than downside IMO, especially considering options market positioning for >$205 next week. Maybe that’s the next spike the experts here are referring to.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Big rug pull today. All well - better for repositioning into next week.
Is this the aftermath of the debates from last night? Cannot see why Market is tanking after cool PCE.
Those M&M should be investigated for Market manipulation
Is this the aftermath of the debates from last night? Cannot see why Market is tanking after cool PCE.
Those M&M should be investigated for Market manipulation
I'm no TA expert, just seems to be basing around here.
(BTW QTA Daily range FTW...)
GEX pin range:
(BTW QTA Daily range FTW...)
GEX pin range:
Tesla Stock Finally Cracked $200. Here's Where the Rally Goes Next. — Barrons.com
Jun 28, 202412:56 EDTTesla stock rose past $200 for the first time in almost three months, part of a series of gains that are raising the stakes for the shares ahead of the EV maker's second-quarter delivery report.
Shares were up 1.7% in midday trading at $200.84, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
Tesla stock hadn't traded above $200 since March 1. "Getting through [$200 can] be psychologically significant," says Frank Cappelleri, a technical analyst and founder of the research shop CappThesis. Investors tend to like it when stocks reach round numbers.
Shares of the EV company are on one of their impressive runs. Through midday trading Friday, Tesla stock was up almost 20% from its June lows, reached just before Tesla announced that shareholders reapproved the 2018 compensation package that awarded CEO Elon Musk some 300 million incentive-laden stock options.
The pay-package vote removed a concern that had been weighing on Tesla stock, catalyzing the recent run. But the gains raise the likelihood of increased stock volatility after the company reports its second-quarter delivery results on Tuesday.
Current Wall Street estimates are for deliveries of about 420,000 vehicles, down from 466,000 cars in the second quarter of 2023. Beating 420,000 should be a win for the stock, while a lower number could mean weakness.
Options markets imply shares will move 5%, up or down, following Tesla's delivery report. Shares have moved an average of about 3%, up or down, following the past four reports. They dropped almost 5% after Tesla reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter deliveries.
Fairlead Strategies technical market analyst Will Tamplin points out that Tesla stock faces some resistance near its 200-day moving average around $207 a share and that a move past that level means shares could run to $220 to $225. A good delivery result would help propel shares toward that $220 to $225 zone.
On the other hand, a weak result should send shares back down toward $170, he said. Tamplin isn't making a fundamental call on deliveries. His analysis is based on where shares have run into resistance, or had support, in the past.
The second-quarter earnings report comes a few weeks after the deliveries news. It has even more potential to move the stock. Tesla shares have moved an average of 11%, up or down, following the past four quarterly reports.
Through midday trading Friday, shares were down about 19% year to date. Slowing sales growth, uncertainty over Musk's pay, and falling earnings estimates have weighed on investor sentiment in 2024.
Looks like my CCs at 185 and 187.5 for this week will be called away (trading shares). I have some 192.5 CC that I rolled into next week's 197.5 with some credit. I believe my next cost bases is at 205 so I'll be fine to let these go soon too. Haven't sold puts for months so psychologically feels a little better to see a down day so I can sell puts.
What's the chance we see a pop when P&D is released? I see a drop is more likely.
What's the chance we see a pop when P&D is released? I see a drop is more likely.
It’s a tough call IMO.
Numbers are looking less bad than anticipated + weekend still part of June which can see further delivery push.
I’m not taking risk into P&D counting on a down move because option market was right this week (trifecta Gamma/Vanna/Delta showing green @200) and next week looks same for 205 as of now.
Of course we can still see both sides of the range but I’m treating it that risk is to the upside, unless other factors throw a wrench. NFA
I’d much rather the rug pull happen today/Monday before P/D numbers come out on Tuesday morning. So pull back below 200 and the P/D numbers act as the catalyst to break through convincingly.Big rug pull today. All well - better for repositioning into next week.
Is this the aftermath of the debates from last night? Cannot see why Market is tanking after cool PCE.
Those M&M should be investigated for Market manipulation
Much better setup than it crossing 200 only to break back down under 200 after the numbers are out
wednesday morning i guessed no way TSLA is going to close 205 this week (i can't find any OI/gamma/vanna to support that; did you see the bull trap at 203); actual close=197.88
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Approaching escape velocity. Nice V into Closure. The only Mag7 that closed green.
Haven't seen such strength for quite some times.
BTO 202.5C exp 7/12 @197.5 into closing.
NVDA position all closed out. Bummer thought we hit 130 this week.
Haven't seen such strength for quite some times.
BTO 202.5C exp 7/12 @197.5 into closing.
NVDA position all closed out. Bummer thought we hit 130 this week.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I guess now we can say all the stars are aligned.
With all the excitement heading into next week - FOMC Minutes, 4th of July, PD, BBQ mmmmm,....... the weekend seem longs even before it started
MSTR, CVNA and SMCI got moved to Russell 1000 index from R2000. That explains the volume spike at 4 pm closing cross and subsequent dramatic price plunge in the minutes before close. Hoping for a recovery and lesser volatility next week.
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