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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Am going to try something today to save CC's.

Last friday my 200cc's expired worhtless, and those were the bulk of my CC position for the week. Fortunately.

I had some lower cc's that I had to roll. They are now 4x 195 cc's for this week and 1x 180cc for next week.

Since P&D is likely to take us up, and that hurts my cc's, I was thinking of alternatives to "just wait and roll".

Some principles that I believe are true (please correct me if false):
1) having multiple higher strike (say ATM) cc's instead of one DITM cc generally means you have higher negative delta so an increase in SP hurts you more with multiple ATM cc's.
2) negative delta is lower for a similar SP rise the further out the expiration date is.

So I'm thinking - if one believes the SP will rise - to bundle all ITM cc's into one "LEAP cc" to minimize negative delta during the runup. Then when I believe SP is close to a top, I pull the LEAP cc forward and split it up ATM, to maximize theta decay and delta during a drop.

I know this requires timing the market, but just avoiding some part of a runup will minimize the unrealised losses from ITM cc's if I theorize this correctly.

So for example I can close all the above cc's (value around $43.xx in total) and sell one JUN2026 -250c (@47.xx currently) for a credit. I then wait out the storm (NOT selling additional calls in the meantime, that would defeat the purpose of my saving-strategy) and when I see a top I close the JUN2026 -250c and split it up into closeby ATM cc's.

Of course if P&D results in a crash I am better off just holding my current ITM cc's. But that's just a risk-reward contemplation.

NFA.
#talkmeoutofitifyouseeflaws,please
 
I've pondered the same thing... flipping to puts is a little disingenuous as you'd be selling the puts when the stock is high and then potentially get into the same issue on the way back down, when you'd need to then flip those puts back to calls at a loss.

Don’t short puts (-P) rise in value the higher SP goes?

Meaning sell short puts like -P300 12/2026 at the start or early part of the run (like here at $198-201) to dampen any loss in the CCs if it marches to $210-$220. Or even cut the CCs and just run with -P. But being careful to cut the -P when the SP stalls out.
 
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Am going to try something today to save CC's.

Last friday my 200cc's expired worhtless, and those were the bulk of my CC position for the week. Fortunately.

I had some lower cc's that I had to roll. They are now 4x 195 cc's for this week and 1x 180cc for next week.

Since P&D is likely to take us up, and that hurts my cc's, I was thinking of alternatives to "just wait and roll".

Some principles that I believe are true (please correct me if false):
1) having multiple higher strike (say ATM) cc's instead of one DITM cc generally means you have higher negative delta so an increase in SP hurts you more with multiple ATM cc's.
2) negative delta is lower for a similar SP rise the further out the expiration date is.

So I'm thinking - if one believes the SP will rise - to bundle all ITM cc's into one "LEAP cc" to minimize negative delta during the runup. Then when I believe SP is close to a top, I pull the LEAP cc forward and split it up ATM, to maximize theta decay and delta during a drop.

I know this requires timing the market, but just avoiding some part of a runup will minimize the unrealised losses from ITM cc's if I theorize this correctly.

So for example I can close all the above cc's (value around $43.xx in total) and sell one JUN2026 -250c (@47.xx currently) for a credit. I then wait out the storm (NOT selling additional calls in the meantime, that would defeat the purpose of my saving-strategy) and when I see a top I close the JUN2026 -250c and split it up into closeby ATM cc's.

Of course if P&D results in a crash I am better off just holding my current ITM cc's. But that's just a risk-reward contemplation.

NFA.
#talkmeoutofitifyouseeflaws,please

 
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Don’t short puts (-P) rise in value the higher SP goes?

Meaning sell short puts like -P300 12/2026 at the start or early part of the run (like here at $198-201) to dampen any loss in the CCs if it marches to $210-$220. Or even cut the CCs and just run with -P. But being careful to cut the -P when the SP stalls out.
Assuming IV remains the same, Puts become cheaper as the SP rises, but my point was that if you get underwater calls then the stock is Cleary on a local high, so selling puts at that moment carries the risk of you a) buying back the short calls at a loss, selling puts, stock falls, puts gain value into another loss situation...

That's why I tend to write straddles in these situations as it's halves the risk
 
Great to be back from Italy. I thought my 205 and 210 calls expiring this Friday would be pretty safe. Generally a good thing it appears to be a nail biter at this point, but wondering if I should role now, or hold through P&D. If I'm wrong & we go up after the report, it may be late to role up in the near term and I hate converting to a long term call.
I'm curious why people are thinking P&D will be a catalyst up this week? I think if they include battery delivery numbers, that could help, but deliveries are likely below street estimates.
 
Much of the time after an overnight gap up TSLA gap fills down same day, sometimes at open or 1-2 hours in. For scalping this may imply to take profit on any long calls/short puts at open pop apex and wait for the retrace to $197-$198 area to re-enter. Tread carefully as it might not work but chances are good. We'll see today. Would be good to see data on this. NFA!
 
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I think the higher we go before P&D, the more likely a rug pull becomes. But who knows. If the numbers are good, we could keep climbing after....
Agree, would have much preferred a flat to slight down day today.

Either numbers are leaky leaky and they're good....or we're about to get a good old-fashioned rug pull.
 
TSLA Performance in the Week Just BEFORE P&D Press Release

1719841640538.png


TSLA Performance in the Week AFTER P&D Press Release

1719841711493.png
 

Wasn't aware of the Russell index move, thanks for sharing! Didn't look at others you mentioned, recovery might have started. Overnight 24 hr market , per the Hood, MSTR $1,472 , up $93 or so... I sold -p1200 for the 5th, wasn't concerned, will take profit AM and be done for the week, if this trend continues. GLTA!
[/QUOTE]

This puppy is volatile! I closed the position, took $1.25 profit, not bad holding over the weekend. The motivation was a short trading week, theta burn, what made sense suddenly didn't after the whuffle Friday to a new index fund. I'll will revert back to 2-3DTE and may stay out of this one until after the dust settles :)

Back to our thread title, let's see what TSLA can do !
 
IMO PD just need to be decent. There's a barrage of good news coming out that can support the pumps.

1. Updated FSD just release - just need good review
2. China Number for June
3. Price increase if true
4. Shanghai Giga

Position carefully team. As dl003 always mentioned dont get in front of the train......
 
IMO PD just need to be decent. There's a barrage of good news coming out that can support the pumps.

1. Updated FSD just release - just need good review
2. China Number for June
3. Price increase if true
4. Shanghai Giga

Position carefully team. As dl003 always mentioned dont get in front of the train......
Nobody cares what dl003 says anyway.
I still see opened CCs in trouble after that dip to 195. what are you guys doing?
 
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