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Yeah - looking for the closest free roll up and out now....Just roll up and out
I definitely have a Super Power. I can instantly make the SP do the opposite of what I post. To help those with ITM CCs - The SP is DEFINITELY, OBVIOUSLY, GOING TO 1200 BY FRIDAY!!Maybe looking at a +10% today.
Sorry to pick this up again, but this could be a good experiment for split rolling.In Autumn of 2019, when the stock was hovering just above 400, my brother sold 15 calls 800 for Jan 2023 (for which he got 100.00 credit each). That covered 1500 of his 2000 shares. He felt that after the big run-up (he had already 5x his investment) the stock would take a long breather, and certainly would not double again soon. The timing was unlucky though, as the S&P 500 announcement followed shortly after and Tesla the company continued to deliver.
He has since been reluctant to look at the stock and the options, regretting his decision. Recently I evaluated his position. Buying back the calls was much too expensive, but it turned out he could roll them out by one year to January 2024 and raise the strike from 800 to 960 without paying any premium. So he did that today. If they ever get exercised he will get 240k more for those 1500 shares.
Well this runup kind of caught me.. so the point of 100% loss went way past already. Did a kind of split-roll here.Are you going to roll or close that position and what is your trigger point? 100% loss?
It feels like Elon’s sale is a done deal. We’re moving on. But I don’t think we’ll be testing 1300-1400. Feels like a FOMO to get a good price before returning to prior levels.That 1100 call wall is impressive - I'm wondering if the MMs are simply shaking the tree up there to see if weak hands (me ) fall out....
Very undecided was to do... actually wanted a quiet non-babysitting week, kicked my 900/700 BPS to the curb on Monday when Elon was being Elon....thought 1105 was safe for the week. Famous last words aging like milk.
On the one hand I'm glad to be in a position to have to potentially manage an ITM CC, on the other hand I am now convinced that fair OTM BPS are going to be my game until there is a clear direction and Elon has officially completed his 10% sale.
It feels like Elon’s sale is a done deal. We’re moving on. But I don’t think we’ll be testing 1300-1400. Feels like a FOMO to get a good price before returning to prior levels.
Which I think were a bit unjustified/overshot. I would hope we don’t exceed 1150-1200 in the next few weeks. Now, going into December that’s closing in on Q4 deliveries and possibly new factory news. So, 1300-1400 might start getting priced in before the official ER numbers.
I think the market figured out that his sales don’t really tank SP.I'm good with that, as long as we close this week @ 1101
On a more serious note, the F4's don't support the notion that the deal is a done thing. He's got tons of options to exercise and shares to sell still.
I wonder if this has now simply been accepted, or an OTC / block trade deal has been struck for the remainder?
I think the market figured out that his sales don’t really tank SP.
HFs played out the news and seem to not get involved more on no news, so don’t look like a threat at the moment.
Taxes get calculated here by calendar year (as I assume in most countries).it is a loss in the current week/month however you keep your spread sheet
This is why I believe we need to track two different numbers. They trend towards matching each other over larger time frames, but can be very different over shorter time frames.I think the only way to avoid the week showing a large loss is to track everything on a cash basis instead of paper gains/losses. But that has its own disadvantage, namely, that if the stock keeps going down and you keep rolling then everything can look fine on the sheet — while you have a bomb hanging over your head growing larger and larger but not reflected in your numbers.
According to E*Trade my annual gains did take a big hit when I rolled everything… so while my cash is OK it probably is more reflective of reality to book the large loss now, and hopefully a corresponding gain later when the stock price recovers sufficiently.