Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[jeewee3000]

How are you guy feeling about Q4? There is no immediate Tesla catalyst at all other than P&D. Retail has run out of ammo and doesn't have the power to turn this ship around. If Q4 doesn't print we are royally screwed IMO. You can tell that many long time members in this forum are starting to panic including myself. I really want to see the Q4 result before I make any rash decisions. Just venting here. I sold a few $210's for next week yesterday.

I've learned not to pinpoint all hopes on just one quarter.

The state of Tesla is one thing (demand/production/margins), the state of the competition also has an influence on the perception of Tesla's market position.

If Tesla prints a decent Q4, Mr. Market could see this as glass half empty/half full depending on how well/poor other OEMs are doing in this (economic) macro environment.

As long as Tesla keeps growing revenue and profits, whilst others are dropping in revenue/profits, the Tesla story remains as strong as ever. So what if margins don't reach 30% yet, as long as we can stay above 25% that is still stellar. The true cash cows are still coming:
- fully ramped Berlin/Austin production;
- rising FSD revenue if it becomes more potent (fingers crossed of course);
- Tesla insurance;
- ramping Tesla energy (if 4680's reach mass production, we will see all excess batteries flow to storage);
- distant future: Tesla AI/robotaxi/Dojo/Optimus.

Either way I'm quite confident in Tesla stock by let's say JAN2025. That's why I'm using some of my cc gains to fund "safe-ish" investment bets to outperform stock.

Mainly I have bought some bull call spreads:
JAN2025 +300c/-600c. They go for around $2.5k or less now, and generate decent returns should Tesla reach +$450 by then, which I think is likely. I could of course be mistaken and if so, these spreads are just gone (I'm not managing these, just holding till expiration) but I'm not using all my spare cash to purchase these. Max profit = $30k per spread, should TSLA be at or above $600 by then. Which again is possible, it mostly depends on FSD IMO, and if the current macro fears recede. (which feels improbable at this time, but the end of the tunnel should be in sight somewhere in 2023, and 2024 could be the year of recovery. Rarely a market crash takes +3years for strong healthy companies to regain some lost ground).

Not advice. YMMV.

 

[traxila]

Selling CC's now is like going to Vegas and plunder all machines.
Of course this only work until it isn't, so I would stay careful.

I keep selling *sugar* calls and making *sugar* money.

Then again this is a pretty shitty situation.

How are you guy feeling about Q4? There is no immediate Tesla catalyst at all other than P&D. Retail has run out of ammo and doesn't have the power to turn this ship around. If Q4 doesn't print we are royally screwed IMO. You can tell that many long time members in this forum are starting to panic including myself. I really want to see the Q4 result before I make any rash decisions. Just venting here. I sold a few $210's for next week yesterday.

I believe record numbers, profits and cash flow are in the bag. MM will try to spin it in the worst light, but this is business as usual.

This does not mean the SP will skyrocket immediately, but short of an economic depression, I do not see what the issues are regarding Tesla’s future, especially with the IRA about to kick in. And there is this Cybertruck thing I heard of coming up I think.

Worst case I see Tesla stabilizing with 3 million per year sales and profits around 15 / share annually in 2025. Even a five to ten percent growth rate should yield a PE of 20 and an SP of 300, especially assuming no debt and big cash on balance sheet. This is a bear case if you ask me.

Bull case is continuation of 40 to 50% growth rate into at least 2028 and an SP that I will not post as it will just seem ridiculous as 2018 to 2020 did and no one will believe it so what is the point.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Again assigned on the 7x -p416.67 June 24 I had rolled 1 month ago.

They keep getting assigned every month.

Now I’ll roll them to 2025.

I don’t know what to do anymore to avoid assignement

 

[ZeApelido]

Again assigned on the 7x -p416.67 June 24 I had rolled 1 month ago.

They keep getting assigned every month.

Now I’ll roll them to 2025.

I don’t know what to do anymore to avoid assignement

Remember put spreads act like call spreads. You can think of your sold puts as a 0/416.67 put spread. So instead you can buy call spreads with long leg very DITM (like $50 or less) and the short leg around $416 and it should exhibit similar behaviors. I think the calls are less likely to be assigned.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Again assigned on the 7x -p416.67 June 24 I had rolled 1 month ago.

They keep getting assigned every month.

Now I’ll roll them to 2025.

I don’t know what to do anymore to avoid assignement

If you roll to 25, can't you lower the strike to (maybe) avoid monthly assignment?

 

[Yoona]

174 breached, maybe 169-170 is next

170 breached, maybe ~166.19 is next

stay safe out there especially next week (cpi, fomc, opex) - i will reduce positions before monday and BTC all CC, better safe than sorry

as for my 12/16 -p175, perhaps roll into -p160/+p140, to be decided monday

 

[SebastienBonny]

Looks like we bounced from todays low for now...

 

[dl003]

These dirty bastards resorted to another fake China headline to fully fill the gap. The hell is the SEC doing all day?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Looks like we bounced from todays low for now...

Hope everyone benefited from that dip. All my $169.69 buys hit, so just about out of cash once again. Cash is so low now that I’ll be required to take assignment on the put side of the straddles if we don’t bounce back above $185 by January. Oh well. Also, missed adding a couple more shares because the bounce was faster than my trading fingers. So, now the big question is whether the big drops are done, or is $166 still in play tomorrow? Then, will they really try to push down to the first original pre-split price in the $150s? Unfortunately, I fear that anything is possible by 12/31 so I decided NOT to close my CCs , just picked up shares instead. Still resent these buying opportunities. GLTA and stay safe.

 

[intelligator]

These dirty bastards resorted to another fake China headline to fully fill the gap. The hell is the SEC doing all day?

may be harsh for me to say about their no-action position, it's all criminal IMO

 

[CrunchyJello]

Hope everyone benefited from that dip. All my $169.69 buys hit, so just about out of cash once again. Cash is so low now that I’ll be required to take assignment on the put side of the straddles if we don’t bounce back above $185 by January. Oh well. Also, missed adding a couple more shares because the bounce was faster than my trading fingers. So, now the big question is whether the big drops are done, or is $166 still in play tomorrow? Then, will they really try to push down to the first original pre-split price in the $150s? Unfortunately, I fear that anything is possible by 12/31 so I decided NOT to close my CCs , just picked up shares instead. Still resent these buying opportunities. GLTA and stay safe.

Grabbed a Dec23 160p for $5.10. Satisfied with every credit!

 

[Chenkers]

We're totally disconnected from the Macros at this point with shorts just walking it down at will. $175 was always going to provide stiff resistance with the first Call wall now sitting there. Hopefully the Put wall at $170 provides some MM support.

 

[adiggs]

I've completed some share to leap conversions today, selling shares (some yesterday, some today) in the 170-174 range, and buying Jan '25 200 strike calls for 52 to 52.50. An increase of 3:1 in position count - share price may indeed keep going down from here, but this looks awfully close to a significant bottom. No idea yet if I'm holding these for a year+ or just taking quick profits over the current earnings cycle, or what. The risk / reward just looks too good to me to pass this up.

I expect that I will start selling cc as soon as the share price reaching $200, whenever that is.


EDIT: also added 180 strike cc for next week in an account that I manage almost exclusively as cash / income. Don't want to sell at this price but 3.50 credit and the possibility of needing to roll this (alleviating put side pressure) leads me to taunt the share price.

 

[Yoona]

as of noon, PM Low 170 acting as intermittent supp

 

[Yoona]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600858842123816960

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I just couldn’t help myself because of the irony of it, so hoovered up another 4 shares at $169.42 to round out my small account to 420 shares! Ok, now I’m seriously done until more premiums come in. Down to less than $800 cash in that account, with 4x 185 CCs.

 

[vikings123]

as of noon, PM Low 170 acting as intermittent supp

View attachment 882782

169 low will be key. Dan called the action in real time and with precise targets. 169 breaks and then we see 166 which is our 52 week low.

166 will be a HUGE area so I hope that holds. Maybe they come for it tomorrow.

I have some cash from the shares I sold in the 185-190 range. Sold some Jan 24 150 puts today for 27$. Saving up the remaining cash to buy LEAPS but not in any rush. I will give the stock every chance to hit a double bottom(166). If not I will wait for it to break 180 for the upside.

 

[Jim Holder]

These dirty bastards resorted to another fake China headline to fully fill the gap. The hell is the SEC doing all day?

100% though nothing will happen of course.

Where are we in the EWT process currently, any relief/pop coming soon? Selling any CC’s?

 

[SebastienBonny]

We’ll have PPI tomorrow, so I would wait until tomorrow to sell cc’s for next week.

 

[adiggs]

I managed to goof up one of my share to leap conversions, selling shares in one account and buying leaps in an account with margin. Buy hey - I made 2.30 on the round trip error in the margin account!

Really gotta double check which account I'm working in