jeewee3000
Active Member
I've learned not to pinpoint all hopes on just one quarter.How are you guy feeling about Q4? There is no immediate Tesla catalyst at all other than P&D. Retail has run out of ammo and doesn't have the power to turn this ship around. If Q4 doesn't print we are royally screwed IMO. You can tell that many long time members in this forum are starting to panic including myself. I really want to see the Q4 result before I make any rash decisions. Just venting here. I sold a few $210's for next week yesterday.
The state of Tesla is one thing (demand/production/margins), the state of the competition also has an influence on the perception of Tesla's market position.
If Tesla prints a decent Q4, Mr. Market could see this as glass half empty/half full depending on how well/poor other OEMs are doing in this (economic) macro environment.
As long as Tesla keeps growing revenue and profits, whilst others are dropping in revenue/profits, the Tesla story remains as strong as ever. So what if margins don't reach 30% yet, as long as we can stay above 25% that is still stellar. The true cash cows are still coming:
- fully ramped Berlin/Austin production;
- rising FSD revenue if it becomes more potent (fingers crossed of course);
- Tesla insurance;
- ramping Tesla energy (if 4680's reach mass production, we will see all excess batteries flow to storage);
- distant future: Tesla AI/robotaxi/Dojo/Optimus.
Either way I'm quite confident in Tesla stock by let's say JAN2025. That's why I'm using some of my cc gains to fund "safe-ish" investment bets to outperform stock.
Mainly I have bought some bull call spreads:
JAN2025 +300c/-600c. They go for around $2.5k or less now, and generate decent returns should Tesla reach +$450 by then, which I think is likely. I could of course be mistaken and if so, these spreads are just gone (I'm not managing these, just holding till expiration) but I'm not using all my spare cash to purchase these. Max profit = $30k per spread, should TSLA be at or above $600 by then. Which again is possible, it mostly depends on FSD IMO, and if the current macro fears recede. (which feels improbable at this time, but the end of the tunnel should be in sight somewhere in 2023, and 2024 could be the year of recovery. Rarely a market crash takes +3years for strong healthy companies to regain some lost ground).
Not advice. YMMV.