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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Just my stream of thoughts:

I've noticed a different kind of divergence: stock price & IV. This Monday we traded and closed higher than last Friday but somehow call IVs were lower, especially considering Monday tends to kick off the week with higher IVs. This may mean that bullish bets via options are drying up. The stock may still make another high to finish the ending diagonal pattern, but this divergence, in my opinion, affirms that should mark the top of wave 1.

My way of hedging against unexpected news, ie Hertz 2.0:

If you are stuck with ITM CCs, consider this strategy:

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What we're looking at is a 200/210/220 call butterfly paired with a 160 short put. It can give you protection against a "melt-up" scenario in which macro news becomes rosy for the next month or 2. If TSLA close next week around 210, you'll profit $10 per contract. To pay for this, sell a 160 put. Should be ok according to my TA. If TSLA drops, your ITM CCs will get rescued. Win-win for little risks.

At this stage, one should be more afraid of "melt-ups" than some insane spike. Internals show that bullish bets are drying up so any spike should trigger massive profit taking. Melt-ups, on the other hand, are much more annoying to deal with. Now, if BRK files its 13D saying that it bought TSLA, buckle up. Nothing can protect you from something like that, but we do what we can with the tools we have.
Again, a new rescue strategy that I'd like to learn.
Can you walk me thru another example?
I have a Mar17 META 140c (100 shares @155).
Are you saying this is rescueable?
 
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Buying LEAPs at the right moment can be very impressive. Returns since December 28th
 

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Buying LEAPs at the right moment can be very impressive. Returns since December 28th
Not as impressive on my leaps as I started averaging in around share price $160 but kept at it - average cost of my January 2025 $200 leaps is $35 each.... now at $70 each.
Annnddd now writing safe OTM calls against them now that we are over my strike of $200.
 
Not as impressive on my leaps as I started averaging in around share price $160 but kept at it - average cost of my January 2025 $200 leaps is $35 each.... now at $70 each.
Annnddd now writing safe OTM calls against them now that we are over my strike of $200.
And not as impressive at those 10x Jan 2021 -c650's I bought 5th September 2019 - total purchase cost $1000... if held to expiry they would have been worth $3.6M 😂 but I sold them too soon, but luckily before the C19 crash, 220x the initial value
 
I'm thinking of rolling for minimal debit, -c170 to 2/17 -c177.5 ... it adds 2.5 to strike and more importantly, 2.10 of extrinsic, at about .35 now, too close for comfort, too near callable. I'm only going to next week, expecting that I'll have a better roll opportunity to something higher should we roll back to the low 190s , high 180s. I don't know or foresee, just taking this risk for a better move later this week or next. Ultimately, shares will get called if I do nothing today. Based on Monday and Tuesday gamma exposure and OI. open interest increased for p160-p165 subtle, more so p175-p190. c200, c210, c220 increased as well. Rolling a week rather than locking up the shares for call writing by rolling out months is a risk I am willing to take today.

TSLA-TotalGamma-07Feb2023.png
TSLA-TotalGamma-06Feb2023.png
 
I'm thinking of rolling for minimal debit, -c170 to 2/17 -c177.5 ... it adds 2.5 to strike and more importantly, 2.10 of extrinsic, at about .35 now, too close for comfort, too near callable. I'm only going to next week, expecting that I'll have a better roll opportunity to something higher should we roll back to the low 190s , high 180s. I don't know or foresee, just taking this risk for a better move later this week or next. Ultimately, shares will get called if I do nothing today. Based on Monday and Tuesday gamma exposure and OI. open interest increased for p160-p165 subtle, more so p175-p190. c200, c210, c220 increased as well. Rolling a week rather than locking up the shares for call writing by rolling out months is a risk I am willing to take today.

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You mean -c175 to -c177.5, or -c170 to -c172.50?

Do you have enough cash to straddle with some puts? Then you'll either get some free premium from puts that stay OTM or the calls will go OTM and you'll be even happier...
 
You mean -c175 to -c177.5, or -c170 to -c172.50?

Do you have enough cash to straddle with some puts? Then you'll either get some free premium from puts that stay OTM or the calls will go OTM and you'll be even happier...


Good catch. -c175 to -c177.5

Not enough cash , tied up in a far out CSP ... but i like the thought for when i do have the cash. --> Pls share what it'd look like using the roll i have in mind.
EDIT: :) it's a straddle , same strike, same expiry ... wasn't thinking clear.
 
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Good catch. -c175 to -c177.5

Not enough cash , tied up in a far out CSP ... but i like the thought for when i do have the cash. --> Pls share what it'd look like using the roll i have in mind.
EDIT: :) it's a straddle , same strike, same expiry ... wasn't thinking clear.
Yes, the idea being the ITM calls are very unlikely to go OTM, so take some put premiums with essentially zero risk, not zero, of course, but you get the idea