Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[LBM4]

I've never seen as many "@CommunityNotes" requests on Twitter as to the Tweet by Reuters pointing to that article.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1642562600377409537

Hell, that was the first article in my Google news feed. It garnered more attention than any other, I'd bet.
Pisses me off that the stock is down $7 and change at opening, based off a made up number, regardless if Tesla beat every other quarter in terms of production and sales. The stock should be way up based on that, not some analysts figures.

 

[intelligator]

At this pace, 4/6 -c190 might expire ... who would have though that we'd have this crazy price action after a near meet or clear beat

 

[SpeedyEddy]

No 0DTE SPY expectations from me today, because digesting P&D is all that matters and WS still seems to be wondering what estimates really were....
I will explain for these morons
IF estimate < delivery THAN it = BEAT! Estimate = 421 Delivery = 422, 421<422=BEAT , so no reason for sell-off.
Maybe look at rolling 4 quarters too confirm this is the best Q1 beat we have ever had?
Look at coming valley of death, do you really think EV-manufacturing will grow as fast as ICE-market dumps?
If TESLA makes a compelling EV, ON WHICH THEY EVEN CAN LOWER PRICE WITHOUT HAVING ANY LOSS, do you think people will stop buying cars or will they only stop buying ICE-cars?

 

[juanmedina]

I closed some of my $220's for this week and rolled some of the $215's to next week for $1.9. I am keeping the rest of the $215's for this week hopping they go ITM. We need some Cybertruck news or something; I am nervous about ER.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I closed some of my $220's for this week and rolled some of the $215's to next week for $1.9. I am keeping the rest of the $215's for this week hopping they go ITM. We need some Cybertruck news or something; I am nervous about ER.

I expect ER to be awesome, not only on the vehicle front. (On the vehicle cost side AND on the Stationary Battery-side sell side (time to include these in P&D next time))
I am not nervous about the company Tesla, which exactly does what it says in a mind-blowing way, only Ford is doing this, but their outlook has nothing to be excited about (still liking their open approach)
I am only nervous about banks, China, Russia

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Also STO -CC 207.5 4/6 so my expectations are totally sideways for the rest of the week. Next week too, so maybe sell some calls 15-20% away already,
(But I managed to get the worst premium of the day on both P and C)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTC -CC 207.5 4/6 at 33% profit already and rolled all my -P162.50 for 4/28 to -192.50 for 4/6, nice dip to catch bigger premium, this time really hitting the intraday bottom (for now), as I expect a nice recovery into thursday. Planning to countertrade most of extreme moves this week!
WS will realise it's faulty on this one. For now short term bullish. Last Gap-up is filled already, but there is one slightly below at 189. I'd suggest we'd take that one out this week too and then look at the upside into AND after ER.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Is there anyone here, influential enough, to request for Megapacks being included in future P&D. (I will ask Rob Maurer too.)

 

[juanmedina]

I expect ER to be awesome, not only on the vehicle front. (On the vehicle cost side AND on the Stationary Battery-side sell side (time to include these in P&D next time))
I am not nervous about the company Tesla, which exactly does what it says in a mind-blowing way, only Ford is doing this, but their outlook has nothing to be excited about (still liking their open approach)
I am only nervous about banks, China, Russia

True but right now WS is focus on the auto side. The stationary battery side it's still too small to make a difference. I might go into ER with very aggressive covered calls depending on where the stock is at. I agree I am not worried about Tesla at all long term but I am worried about the stock short term. The high interest rates and layoffs all over the place are scaring potential buyers.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

True but right now WS is focus on the auto side. The stationary battery side it's still too small to make a difference. I might go into ER with very aggressive covered calls depending on where the stock is at. I agree I am not worried about Tesla at all long term but I am worried about the stock short term. The high interest rates and layoffs all over the place are scaring potential buyers.

short term you should never have any feeling, being in and out usually ends up in you having less shares. Just buy when you can and never sell until you really need the money (I am a moron on that one too, sometimes, as in day-trading, but I promised y'all and myself not to be low on stock overnight anymore). And on megapack I can only say: Watch and be surprised. It is growing a lot faster than auto with a lot more GM, so it will overtake auto in a matter of quarters, EPS-wise. Auto deliveries 44% YOY Megapack deliveries 152% YOY. Gross margin Megapack believed to be around 40% this year. That matters! (oh yes and new product will be revealed that will probably be even better (or why else would you introduce a new Battery-product))

 

[EVNow]

Also STO -CC 207.5 4/6 so my expectations are totally sideways for the rest of the week. Next week too, so maybe sell some calls 15-20% away already,
(But I managed to get the worst premium of the day on both P and C)

With P&D and ER there is a two step reaction of the market
- Traders, retail & hedgies react immediately comparing actual to expectations
- Analysts come up with their upgrades / downgrades etc in a day or two. Large investors react to that.

What happens rest of the week depends on (2) above. (1) just cancelled out the FOMO / speculation that happened on Friday. Oh yes, nobody knows ... it was just FOMO.

 

[LBM4]

Currently down $12 and change per share. Short sellers, I'm guessing? Hope to see a rally at the end of the day.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Ok I give one shot at 0DTE because everything is smoothing out now: I Think It will stay that way ending $TSLA approximately between 194 and 195.
All the SPY options indicate sort of a freeze for today and slightly lower for the end of the week. (My guess for TSLA would be intermediately lower today, tomorrow or wednesday, is still possible, picking up a bit of speed on thursday),
As always: Weird things that Macro move not included!!

 

[EVNow]

Currently down $12 and change per share. Short sellers, I'm guessing? Hope to see a rally at the end of the day.

By watching a lot of TSLA trader related videos, I'm getting a better understanding of short term SP movement.

There are a lot of traders who watch various resistance / support levels. They are either day traders or very short term traders. They will buy calls/puts, buy stock/short etc as the price moves. These are not the same long term shorts we have come to know (TSLAQ folks) for years ago. They don't have much understanding of the fundamentals - they don't even care about those. They are mostly technical traders. They will short (or buy puts, which is basically the same thing) when SP breaks some support level. They will buy stock / calls when SP breaks above some resistance level.

Ofcourse today we also have all those speculative buyers from Friday exiting.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

That one* did not age very well and in a fast way as well. Somebody still thinks it's not done about pushing. I am not into Elliot-waves, so hoping for @dl003 to shine a little light, because last TSLA chart did not completely match with reality. We ran up into the "green" direction, but now it is broken, so my logic would be a fall that even could involve a 160 in the coming weeks (well before earnings). That is not proper EW-ing, but wild guessing based on history.
*I Think It will stay that way ending $TSLA approximately between 194 and 195

 

[Max Plaid]

By watching a lot of TSLA trader related videos, I'm getting a better understanding of short term SP movement.

There are a lot of traders who watch various resistance / support levels. They are either day traders or very short term traders. They will buy calls/puts, buy stock/short etc as the price moves. These are not the same long term shorts we have come to know (TSLAQ folks) for years ago. They don't have much understanding of the fundamentals - they don't even care about those. They are mostly technical traders. They will short (or buy puts, which is basically the same thing) when SP breaks some support level. They will buy stock / calls when SP breaks above some resistance level.

Ofcourse today we also have all those speculative buyers from Friday exiting.

Yes, no doubts a lot of call buyers offloading, also causing a little Gamma squeeze down as the MM's adjust their books

All this over a fake "miss" narrative setup by a few bad actors, and even then we're talking 9k vehicles, utter nonsense...

For my side, I exited all my short calls earlier, the -c200's and July -c250's looking to resell, that opportunity didn't yet arrive, obviously

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

STO 10x TSLA 230421P180 @ $5.50 (Earnings 4/19/23)

and closed my C205, C210, C215 covered calls for 8.5k profit

Deliveries were soft and largely in-line with estimates.
Need margin and profitability data to see the whole story.

TSLA @ 192.90

 

[juanmedina]

STO 10x TSLA 230421P180 @ $5.50

and closed my C205, C210, C215 covered calls for 8.5k profit

same here; closed all my covered calls and it doesn't feel like a win .

 

[CHGolferJim]

Yes, no doubts a lot of call buyers offloading, also causing a little Gamma squeeze down as the MM's adjust their books

All this over a fake "miss" narrative setup by a few bad actors, and even then we're talking 9k vehicles, utter nonsense...

For my side, I exited all my short calls earlier, the -c200's and July -c250's looking to resell, that opportunity didn't yet arrive, obviously

We are marginally below Thursday’s trading range…….not too concerned about the Friday blip. Have made a note to consider short-term calls the days before the next P&D.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Regarding short-term calls, I have done some 0DTE options lately