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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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I agree with you that my reaction is "fun to say". But on the other hand, in my opinion, the reaction of dl003 leaves so much room for interpretation.

You can see my reaction as a challenge. Maybe dl003 gets right.

BTW, just to make sure, I don't intend to offend somebody. And again sorry for my poor English.
I don’t mean to challenge you, I am asking if you have anything that explains your conviction other than just being contrarian. I’d love to learn what it is.
 
Market posturing into P&D is unclear. This is either still a bull flag forming or a flat correction wave 2 before wave 3 of C, the most destructive leg down, begins. If between now and EOD tomorrow we can break above and hold 200, then P&D will be a beat and up we go. Otherwise everything is up in the air.

Last week I made the call for us to visit 210-215, before lowering it down to 205. That was based on 2 conditions: SPY to visit 404-406 this week and the bullish flow from last week to continue on. Today SPY did tag 404.5. However, the bullish flow could not survive past last Friday and MM was able to crush gamma and all those call buyers. Today calls are picking up a little, as customary to this period before Sunday's report.

Our bullish consolidation phase ends tomorrow and this looks exactly like it should, troubling both bulls and bears.

View attachment 923096
As far as I know, I was the only one calling for SPY 404-406 at 389 last week.
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Long term I'm unquestionably a TSLA bull. Short term I'm neither a bull nor a bear. Where the chart says go, I go. When we broke 200 and held for half an hour this morning, I closed 2/3 of my 230C for a very narrow loss (almost all due to broker's commission) and opened 185Ps for next week. Closed half of 185Ps at 207.5 and ended the week decently in the green although I opened them 230Cs while market was still undecided. I told myself selling early in the week would bring more hassles than it's worth but I did it anyway. Guess what? TSLA did hit half way between my 205 and 210 targets. 😀

If it's not already clear by now: I think we're going up early next week. Whether it's gonna be a real rally or a bull trap remains to be seen. SPY has some more room to run although a pullback is gonna be due soon. A pullback at first, not a crash as previously opined.
 
If it's not already clear by now: I think we're going up early next week. Whether it's gonna be a real rally or a bull trap remains to be seen. SPY has some more room to run although a pullback is gonna be due soon. A pullback at first, not a crash as previously opined.
I think today's price action means the market is betting on a decent beat of P&D. So, if there is a decent beat, we should see some more upward movement. A miss can make the SP fall for sure ...
 
Here is Troy's estimate BTW.

Thing to remember is he has been quite close (~5% or less). But that 5% can make a lot of difference in terms of SP reaction ...

IMO today's price action seems to imply a much bigger beat than 427k vs 421k.

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FOMO ? ... though I've to say today's price action looks different than last quarter.

View attachment 923534
Curiously though, was just today... Rest of the week was flat... maybe window-dressing by funds, especially those now enabled/emboldened by Moodys' rating upgrade?

To be fair, tech is now in a bull market, and although initially sluggish, TSLA seemed to pull the indexes up and then the rest responded, and it became. self-fullfilling prophecy..

So no, I don't think it was FOMO, unless FOMO has been happening all week, but negated but the manipulators until the pressure got too much
 
Jeeze, do I regret those -c195's I wrote yesterday, and yet the stock had been capped all week up until the moment I wrote them, typical!

Anyway they were sold for $2.15, just bought them back for $12, and rolled to July -c250 for $12.50

I too regret opening a BCS Thursday at -202.5/+207.5 , today I had to eat most of it for about $7 while the SP was at 206.5 ... I didn't have the courage to open another for next week nor did I want to send that spread to June or July , 230 short leg just seemed too low, but what do I know. Instead, I bought shares with the rest of the credits I earned so far this year. Will reset Monday or Tuesday once we get a sense of where SP will go from here.
 
And ... he was off by about 5% last 2 quarters ;)



Possibly worth distinguishing he was at roughly 2% or less error rate on production quarter after quarter after quarter.... same used to be true on deliveries until the last two... because before that both numbers were typically within a few thousand of each other, while last 2 quarters they were tens of thousands of cars apart.

Speculatively due to Teslas supposed unwinding of the wave (or lack of demand if you listen to the Q folks). Troy this time did put his two numbers almost 20k apart, by far the largest gap he's put between them perhaps in recognition of this new paradigm...so will be interesting to see how it turns out.
 
I closed my -210CC for 0.02 30 minutes before close as a precaution. I should have sold 240CCs for next week, but I was at the airport and distracted. Hopefully we get a nice bounce on Monday, but I fear the usual "sell the news" scenario. I don't have anything open over the weekend. I just didn't want to play with fire. Have a nice weekend everyone.
 
Curiously though, was just today... Rest of the week was flat... maybe window-dressing by funds, especially those now enabled/emboldened by Moodys' rating upgrade?
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Today’s run up is going just like I predicted (caused by sustained ETF buying so they can show TSLA ownership by EOQ in their reporting). Unfortunately, I thought the 200 call wall would hold and, therefore, earlier in the week, sold -c200s at $0.75 and -c205s/+c215s at $0.25 (part of IC). Ooops. Just rolled to 4/6 -c215s for $0.70 and closed the -c205s/+c215s, for just a little small profit. The extra premium from the +p180s/-p190s was more than enough to compensate. All out for this week, trying to decide if I should sell BPS, BCS, ICs, or nothing for next week. Hmmmmmmm.
Decided to do nothing. I’ll give them Monday/Tuesday to evaluate the P/D numbers, then sell ICs on Wednesday for 2-3% premium. That’s plenty of return for me. Yoona-style: Don’t get greedy.
 
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Decided to do nothing. I’ll give them Monday/Tuesday to evaluate the P/D numbers, then sell ICs on Wednesday for 2-3% premium. That’s plenty of return for me. Yoona-style: Don’t get greedy.

2-3% return would be essentially an ATM/ITM call after the IV crush... Not risky at all :p.

I am looking forward to joining the wheel crowd. My losses last year were so big that I should be able to trade in my after tax account tax free for sometime.

Seriously how many trades can you do at 2-3% return before it goes bad? What kind of return have you seen on previous years selling options?
 
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At a guess I would think ROIC, no? c210's are prices around $6, which makes them 2.8% return

@ReddyLeaf and I trade IC similar by opening one side at a time. If we stay flat *after* Monday/Tuesday chatter, I may consider an IC that is .10 delta or less like this.

Let me see if I can exemplify , correct if I am wrong please. Take a 4/6 +p177.5/-p182.5 spread which is -.34 and .60 , .26 net credit to open. For 1 contract, that's (.26 * 100 share) / $500 margin = .052. Add the other side with a 4/6 -c235/+c240 spread for .66 and -.40, thats .26 net credit to open. The beauty is that for the same margin of $500, you now have a 10.4% return if both sides expire. The key is to manage the IC such that when one side is going ITM, close the winner early for pennies, assume the ITM side will persist, get out at 50%. My mistake Friday was to walk away and coming back two hours later to find the BCS to be fully underwater. A stop loss order at half the open credit would have been the ticket.

Have a nice weekend all!
 
What do you mean by 2-3% ? What premium does it work out to ... I've been targeting 30 cents minimum on spreads. Rather low ...
Net $0.30 on $10 spread is 3%. See below.
At a guess I would think ROIC, no? c210's are prices around $6, which makes them 2.8% return
No, this was for spreads not CCs or CSPs. I rarely get even 1% on those anymore. Even then, I was only close enough to ATM on those when I was doing straddles/strangles.
@ReddyLeaf and I trade IC similar by opening one side at a time. If we stay flat *after* Monday/Tuesday chatter, I may consider an IC that is .10 delta or less like this.

Let me see if I can exemplify , correct if I am wrong please. Take a 4/6 +p177.5/-p182.5 spread which is -.34 and .60 , .26 net credit to open. For 1 contract, that's (.26 * 100 share) / $500 margin = .052. Add the other side with a 4/6 -c235/+c240 spread for .66 and -.40, thats .26 net credit to open. The beauty is that for the same margin of $500, you now have a 10.4% return if both sides expire. The key is to manage the IC such that when one side is going ITM, close the winner early for pennies, assume the ITM side will persist, get out at 50%.
Yes, @intelligator explained it perfectly. However, for myself, I prefer $10 spreads for the easy mental math, though I sometimes go $15 or even $20. There are reasons/benefits to wider or narrower spreads that I’m slowly starting to understand (I won’t reiterate because @adiggs has several informative posts on the subject). What I will say, is that I prefer to open spreads as close to expiry as possible and with the long leg below $0.30-$0.50. Reason: The farther OTM (long) legs decay faster than the nearer (short) legs, which is the opposite of what we option sellers want. This behavior has less financial impacts at 2-3 DTE. Adiggs explained that the long leg is buying “insurance“. Since this insurance decays away, just like the profit (short) side, I try to minimize the cost (and loss) of this insurance.

So a typical example for me would be, on up mornings, ideally before the MMD, enter BCS side: sell -c235s at $0.68, buy +c245s at $0.26 = $0.42 net / $10 risk = 4.2% return on risk. Then, after the MMD enter the BPS side: sell -p185s at $0.83, buy +p175s at $0.26 = another $0.57, for a total of $0.99 (9.9%). These examples used Friday’s closing prices from the MaxPain website. If opened on 2DTE, then one could expect about 30-50% daily premium decay if the SP and IV remain approximately constant. One side decays more than the other if the SP doesn’t stay constant, and IV usually stays constant late in the week (except for event weeks). I really like those odds.

The trader can adjust the IC midpoint up/down (depending on belief the SP will rise or fall), widen the central distance, and/or widen the spread legs, all to fit trader’s preference and risk tolerance. Furthermore, the entire trade can be closed early (say 50%, 75%, 90% of max premium), or just one side closed (winning or not) at a time. For example, last Thursday I opened -p180s/+p190s to pair with previously opened -c205/+c215s. After waking up Friday morning to see the rising SP, I closed everything when we broke the $200 call wall (which I didn’t expect). I made very little (less than $0.05) on the call side, but by closing early I didn’t lose the entire $10 spread. Scary, but this is the risk with spreads. Could have left the put side to gain the entire $0.80 premium, but it automatically closed at $0.10 because I wanted to live my life Friday instead of watching the SP.

Another aspect to my personal trading of spreads: I have some short- and long-term CCs open, so I am more worried about SP rise than SP drop. Therefore, I sell the BPS side closer to the SP than I do the BCS side. Profits go into buying back those longer term CCs. Once I close all of those, I will probably reduce risks farther and widen the IC spread to even lower premiums..
 
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