SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Okay, so more of us agree on dire moments to come, then let’s not do what led us into losing money end of last year and this time write calls instead of puts now and only once bottoming out write puts !
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I’m not certain about the going down to 146 after ER part. We are looking at a classic flat correction still - shallow by nature. the bottom should be contained within the downward channel which, when taken in conjunction with the time limit, doesnt allow much downside below 160. However, SPY is also in a dire state. Im still trying to reconcile between their charts. SPY is about to begin a nasty downtrend but for some reason, TSLA is already halfway to the bottom? Something is not right here.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
According to my (grey) downward channel there is an even much lower bottom possible (but fundamentally not likely IMHO)
The (green)upward short-term would be broken @ 173/174 and than any gap below is a candidate for the bottom IMHO, so surely 144
The (green)upward short-term would be broken @ 173/174 and than any gap below is a candidate for the bottom IMHO, so surely 144
Last edited:
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
SPY only is not so close to the short-term bottom of the short-term uptrend as TSLA. TSLA is the amplified SPY so to say (normally deviates double the % delta too, that is why it is so interesting to day trade (as a sort of derivate of SPY!))
Last edited:
I'm only talking about the current downward channel outlined in white. This is considered a shallow retracement still and the bigger trend is still up. The run up from 102 - 217 was either the start of a new bull market, or the first leg up of a zig zag correction to an even bigger downtrend (414 - 102). Either way, until TSLA makes another leg up from 160/146, the currently overarching trend is still up. Timewise, we have until mid June to finish this second leg up before the clock starts ticking. SPY chart doesn't agree though, argg.
Premarket is not worth much these days. That must be the fourth substantially lower opening or drop in a row.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Yes, (second of) gaps-down to later be filled (I hope "crushed")
[Edit, 1st fill seems to be underway /Edit]
[Edit, 1st fill seems to be underway /Edit]
Last edited:
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
FYI I sold -C for NVDA and Meta May 5th (as I want to rather stop shorting TSLA and think these are in much worse position, NVDA being as well overbought as a possible falling knife, but Meta is on the wrong track big time. )
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
0DTE Options call (only 1 to cover it all, I expect today)
[SPY 407 D trading levels indicating room between 405 and 407, the latter being MAXpain too]
[TSLA 184 W(= D today ;-) trading levels at current SP, MAXpain being Higher 190, but falling due to big volume on lower option-strikes momentarily)]
So at the moment I would expect a little rise into the close for TSLA and a little downward movement for SPY, option-wise.
[SPY 407 D trading levels indicating room between 405 and 407, the latter being MAXpain too]
[TSLA 184 W(= D today ;-) trading levels at current SP, MAXpain being Higher 190, but falling due to big volume on lower option-strikes momentarily)]
So at the moment I would expect a little rise into the close for TSLA and a little downward movement for SPY, option-wise.
Bullish comments from FED hawk Bullard turned the direction of the markets... 185 close anyone?
You'll be pleased to know I STO 20x 4/14 -c185 @$5.1 to encourage the stock a bit
You'll be pleased to know I STO 20x 4/14 -c185 @$5.1 to encourage the stock a bit
I was thinking about the same strike yesterday too, but I ended up just rolling my -c195 4/6 to -c190 4/14. The low volume pop this morning doesn't mean much.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Closed 4/6 -c190 this morning at the low for pennies, just now closed 4/6 -p180/+p715 to capture 40% credit. 4/6 -p160/+p130 are worthless, I'm not seeing a risk there but may close out for good measure just the same. Hope we have a workable pattern for next week ... have a nice weekend all !
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
First Gap-down closed & TSLA green finally, maybe @dl003 's 190+ (white line) still possible?
I am yet not too optimistic, because Tesla was behind most stocks to turn green today.
I am yet not too optimistic, because Tesla was behind most stocks to turn green today.
I am actually bullish on SPY - there will be pull backs, but I think we are heading to 420, and probably even higher than that, probably potentially up to 430.
No, I'm a bit bearish on TSLA for the moment and can easily roll up and out if it reverses from here
Obviously I have zero idea, but I'm thinking will be flat next week, then obviously volatile the week after, so looking to get out of these and go into earnings without any weekly positions (for once)
I also sold 20x 4/14 -c195's @$2.1
Still have 20x -185 straddles for today that came good -> waiting for the Theta to drain out of those, then when those are closed I'lm thinking to sell 20x 4/14 -p170 shitputs for $1.1
Last edited:
185s? Check out MaxPain for next week, there were 40,000 c200s traded today. That far OTM, suggests that someone knows something. Normal bets for a weekly are less than 5000-10,000 contracts and closer to ATM, maybe $5 over.
I was considering selling 45x -c210's or 215's for next week with the idea that IV will stay flat along with the SP and close them on Monday if they decay to a few cents. IV dropped a few % since morning for next week but I can see an IV spike to keep these flat on Monday. Looks like we're out of the danger zone of closing below 182.24 for the elevator down. But I share your bearish sentiment, and see a flat week ahead, just unsure with the ER around the corner if we have on last push up.
Similar threads
