Considering that whatever comes out of Elon's mouth has caused the earnings call stock to drop with like a 90% correlation, what you speculate here doesn't jive with consistency.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
IMO it’s better to stay away from earnings. Sure the stock could be north of 1000$ but it could also do the opposite. If you already have stock or looking to get in at that price I get it but it’s a gamble. Do a spread just to be safe?
I'm reverting back to this scenario.
However, the daily candle is too bullish. I'm watching 187.5 next. If it can trade over 187.5, then it will confirm that what's happened since 199 is a correction, which many still doubt. Whether that correction ended at 168 or will end at low 160s, that's up for debate. Historical momentum patterns suggest that low 160s makes more sense, but today's candle is too bullish, resembling a 3rd wave.
I sold 190C for 6/28 this morning but cut it soon after. Tomorrow I'll buy some more 165/160 put spreads exp 6/7 and hold until 187.5 is broken and just watch PA. As long as it doesn't lose 180, the trend is up. Look for 187.5 to be turned into support once broken. My safe CC strike for weekly is 210, a ways away so there's a risk of paper loss if it spikes tomorrow after I sell. Next week that strike is paying 0.62. Seems good.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Thanks dl003. Those Puts Spread gotten cheaper.
Based on NVDA PA last couple of days have there been any changes to where it's potentially heading after ER?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Been awfully quiet lately without seeing much of @BornToFly , @Yoona , and @SpeedyEddy
Hope everyone are doing OK.....
I know Yoona stop trading TSLA but I do missed seeing those lovely SMCI, NVDA Charts along with her daily commentaries.......
Hope everyone are doing OK.....
I know Yoona stop trading TSLA but I do missed seeing those lovely SMCI, NVDA Charts along with her daily commentaries.......
smart money pouring into SMCI/NVDABeen awfully quiet lately without seeing much of @BornToFly , @Yoona , and @SpeedyEddy
Hope everyone are doing OK.....
I know Yoona stop trading TSLA but I do missed seeing those lovely SMCI, NVDA Charts along with her daily commentaries.......
TSLA joined the party
Thanks for the update. Can you share the TradingView tab with the smart money indicator
Smart money index (SMI) or smart money flow index is a technical analysis indicator demonstrating investors sentiment.Thanks for the update. Can you share the TradingView tab with the smart money indicator
The index was invented and popularized by money manager Don Hays. The indicator is based on intra-day price patterns. The main idea is that the majority of traders (emotional, news-driven) overreact at the beginning of the trading day because of the overnight news and economic data. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart, experienced investors start trading closer to the end of the day having the opportunity to evaluate market performance. Therefore, the basic strategy is to bet against the morning price trend and bet with the evening price trend. The SMI may be calculated for many markets and market indices (S&P 500, DJIA, etc.)
The SMI sends no clear signal whether the market is bullish or bearish. There are also no fixed absolute or relative readings signaling about the trend. Traders need to look at the SMI dynamics relative to that of the market. If, for example, SMI rises sharply when the market falls, this fact would mean that smart money is buying, and the market is to revert to an uptrend soon. The opposite situation is also true. A rapidly falling SMI during a bullish market means that smart money is selling and that market is to revert to a downtrend soon. The SMI is, therefore, a trend-based indicator.
Smart Money Index (SMI) — Indicator by HPotter
Smart money index (SMI) or smart money flow index is a technical analysis indicator demonstrating investors sentiment. The index was invented and popularized by money manager Don Hays. The indicator is based on intra-day price patterns. The main idea is that the majority of traders (emotional...
www.tradingview.com
The Smart Money Flow Index - Wall Street's best kept secret
Get access to Wall Street's best kept secret - the Smart Money Flow Index (SMFI). Our proprietary indicator helps identify the buying behavior of smart money vs dumb money in the U.S. stock market-
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It got rejected really hard at 187.42 in AH and it’s been bleeding ever since. Nice call to watch for that level tomorrow and of course if 180 can hold. The selloff after hours almost feels like somebody has news, may be a downgrade by a major firm?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Strange action for sure but we did have a 6.5% day so maybe just profit taking. Usually these downgrades etc go to their clients first so that’s what I meant by someone has news.
Maybe nothing and it’s just profit taking.
Since when is a .9% after hours move something to talk about?
I don’t even think you could say it got “rejected” because after hours trading volume is immaterial to regular trading hours volume
So how does one extrapolate validity of data on the Dow Index to growth stocks such as TSLA?Smart money index (SMI) or smart money flow index is a technical analysis indicator demonstrating investors sentiment.
The index was invented and popularized by money manager Don Hays. The indicator is based on intra-day price patterns. The main idea is that the majority of traders (emotional, news-driven) overreact at the beginning of the trading day because of the overnight news and economic data. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart, experienced investors start trading closer to the end of the day having the opportunity to evaluate market performance. Therefore, the basic strategy is to bet against the morning price trend and bet with the evening price trend. The SMI may be calculated for many markets and market indices (S&P 500, DJIA, etc.)
The SMI sends no clear signal whether the market is bullish or bearish. There are also no fixed absolute or relative readings signaling about the trend. Traders need to look at the SMI dynamics relative to that of the market. If, for example, SMI rises sharply when the market falls, this fact would mean that smart money is buying, and the market is to revert to an uptrend soon. The opposite situation is also true. A rapidly falling SMI during a bullish market means that smart money is selling and that market is to revert to a downtrend soon. The SMI is, therefore, a trend-based indicator.
View attachment 1049338
Smart Money Index (SMI) — Indicator by HPotter
Smart money index (SMI) or smart money flow index is a technical analysis indicator demonstrating investors sentiment. The index was invented and popularized by money manager Don Hays. The indicator is based on intra-day price patterns. The main idea is that the majority of traders (emotional...
The -c960 was sold for $40, and I have enough puts in play to easily replace the shares, along with another 6 blocks left. My goal this year with options is just to pay taxes and ideally make sure that the broader portfolio is at least flat. I do want to accumulate NVDA, but I want to pare more TSLA and AAPL to do it. ("Un"fortunately, >80% of those shares' value is unrealized capital gain, and I am cautious about my total annual realized capital gains for business reasons.)
If you have the cash or margin to cover it, I think you can go higher on the OTM strikes for selling puts safetly. There is a solid estimate of where earnings should be, NVDA has room for a beat, and if they want to tell a tale of caution it only will impact one quarter of earnings. The upside for NVDA is IMO under-appreciated-- analysts see 2-3 quarters of prosperity while I see 6-8.
Its just a big level so purely technical. of course they can bring out some news to justify it.
I knew 188 would reject it on 1st attempt. I just didnt know for sure we would reach 188, especially after yesterday. What yesterday told me was if 179 wouldnt reject it today, it could spike hard to make up for all of that back and forth. That brought us back here, just right under 187.51. This is similar to June of last year.
Ultimately, it has to go parabolic to break out of this upward channel.
June last year
So either this is a false breakout and it will come back inside the channel, to eventually break down to low 160s. OR, we are about to get bombarded with news and it goes parabolic, defying all common sense.
I have been very careful to sidestep this.
Ultimately, the end game Im looking for is this
With MACD, 2nd panel, reaching peak bullish momentum
RSI and MFI, 3rd and 4th panels, both showing bearish divergence from an overbought zone.
That doesnt mean the stock will get rejected right away. Last year, it did sell from 278 to 240, but then got picked up again after a 20k PD beat.
The tricky thing is whether we will reach this on the daily timeframe.
Right now daily RSI and MFI wont reach my topping zone until 210+.
With MACD, 2nd panel, reaching peak bullish momentum
RSI and MFI, 3rd and 4th panels, both showing bearish divergence from an overbought zone.
That doesnt mean the stock will get rejected right away. Last year, it did sell from 278 to 240, but then got picked up again after a 20k PD beat.
The tricky thing is whether we will reach this on the daily timeframe.
Right now daily RSI and MFI wont reach my topping zone until 210+.
Bottom line are you saying if we see a chance to close -C190 6/28 tomorrow at b/e or not too much loss to do so and see if we take out $188?
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Sold a 180 call around 180 to try to goose the the stock. Seems to be working. Not sure if I care about rolling it forward or not, but any advice would be taken into consideration. Living dangerously in these dangerous times.
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