I'm trying to figure out what to do about the 4,000 shares I had sold back at 160 to increase my margin in case the SP was going to keep dropping. I have sold Puts every week, so I raised the break even from 160 to 187. But with the SP now at 207, if I just buy back the shares I lose $80k. The other option is just keep selling ATM Puts, but if the SP keeps rising, the loss of buying back the shares is going to keep increasing unless we get a pullback. If this is the start of the steam roller to 400 there might not be a pullback.... Selling 300 strike Jan 2024 Puts doesn't really help because the premium only gives an extra $6 on top of the current spread. Thoughts?
I sold all my shares on c150's, but with a net price of $164 if you include the premiums
I don't trust the current bull run, the whole thing is fuelled by a handful of tech mega-caps. Seems ridiculous to me that AAPL, NVDA and MSFT are all close to ATH, the macro economy just doesn't support it
Does that mean the bubble will burst? Not necessarily, stock markets are irrational and random, they go up and down for no apparent reason, but I've seen these moves in TSLA many times over the years, up and down, and got burned badly on several occasions and then again when it reversed after closing out losing positions and opening new ones in the opposite direction
I structured my current trade to either take good profits or buy some TSLA at a low net price
To recall, I have July 21 1:3 -200 straddles written against Dec 2025 c140 & c200's -> the idea is that at expiry, assuming >200 I will close out the lot, current projection is that this will net around $40 per straddle/LEAP combo. If we're ATM, then I'll likely roll the straddle out a month, or maybe to October and adapt to a strangle. If <200 then I could decide to allow the p200's to exercise, the net share price would be $139
If I end up with the shares then I'd be able to go aggressive selling calls with the LEAPS, if I go totally to cash, then I'll start selling puts until it crashes, then I'll reload with LEAPS or shares, probability is that we stay around 200 and I roll
I have considered writing some shitcalls, to cover a sudden massive move to the upside, but I think the time to do that has passed, they're too expensive now, would likely be throwing money down the pan