Good luck! Many of us are in the same boat if that’s any comfort.
Is the idea of parking the -C200’s out to October anticipation of a meaningful dip where you’ll BTC at less loss?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Good luck! Many of us are in the same boat if that’s any comfort.
Is the idea of parking the -C200’s out to October anticipation of a meaningful dip where you’ll BTC at less loss?
scubastevo80
Member
I am of a different opinion, but I'm also someone sitting on all cash and some TSLA puts right now since all of my shares were called at lower circa $200 prices. I think margins will continue to compress (given the volume increasing narrative) and wall street won't like that. You'll get a reversion until either Cybertruck volumes or FSD uptake becomes more meaningful. Said another way, I think this run, which is also predicated on this rush to AI-related plays, will revert and there will be better entry points. That said, I'm not willing to call a top given this stock tends to run and run and run in either direction.
I'm looking to sell more puts on a down day at this point.
I believe he is just using the roll to generate some profit to spring a few of them up to the higher strike in December. (Sacrificing some to save a few, so they don't all go down). Maybe he also gets lucky in October, but I'm doubting it at this point.
I thought that in the Q1 call they said Q1 margins were the low point because of one time expenses. As Berlin and Austin ramp margins should improve on higher volumes. Even if margins stay the same earnings will improve on volume.
ASP is about $3k-$4k lower this quarter than last. There is no chance margins won't decrease.
KTC Lurker
Member
How is this being tracked? Why so certain?
jeewee3000
Active Member
But the cost savings from larger volume (more units sold) and the constant cost reduction culture will counterbalance the drop in ASP somewhat. The only question is how much.
You can look up my previous posts. There have been discussions on this matter in various threads.
COGS per unit improved by $1k last quarter, for reference.
I think Cybertruck will actually be the reason we will see a drop later this year. This product has so many new technologies for Tesla that further delays are almost guaranteed. I think we will see a few Cybertrucks being delivered this Autumn but no meaningful deliveries after that for half a year or more (the same thing happened to Model 3).
Having said that: this stock currently only wants to go up, even if it’s on fumes. The TA goal of $270 has been reached. Late last week I moved my 10 x -p250 up to 10 x -p260 for an extra $5 in premium. I also have 10 x -p225.
john tanglewoo
2012 Roadster Owner
I had loaded up on 20 so apologies for mistype.
I rolled out of these 20 today 1yr to June 2024 -c350 for a net credit of 27k plus the 11k I took in on the original sale.
As these 20 contracts make up less than 4% of my overall portfolio, I may very well be okay with letting them get called away at 350.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
I have not been watching this thread lately, so I assume this to be posted earlier, but now we have cleared 166 (the old 800..) and tested it successfully as bottom today I think the upside-down head and shoulders will make the neck-line to top-of-head distance from the neckline (200) up, which makes exactly 301 to come soon (and that must be an in-between top, because this run is too much, too fast). I will sure be wrong again (because "my 145" after the 217 top never was reached and, my money like always being where my mouth is, made me a very big miss in profit again (I was out of stock during my vacation in may because of this wrong conviction). But from TA this is my view (and saw @dl003 making a call like this last week). So I bought some very expensive stock to follow my conviction again. No options yet, but will add some -P too.
Still Shorting NVDA with -C DITM btw. Still Runs more than I thought and is ridiculously priced@ 160 P/E that even is too much for a software company (that NVIDIA is not and never will be). It is based on an outlook that seems to be just a number out of the big hat. Ridiculous indeed. it will fall. hard..
TSLA on the other hand now even has a few more gaps to fill, I guess the ones from 190 and above could be targeted after the soon to reach 300 top.
Still Shorting NVDA with -C DITM btw. Still Runs more than I thought and is ridiculously priced@ 160 P/E that even is too much for a software company (that NVIDIA is not and never will be). It is based on an outlook that seems to be just a number out of the big hat. Ridiculous indeed. it will fall. hard..
TSLA on the other hand now even has a few more gaps to fill, I guess the ones from 190 and above could be targeted after the soon to reach 300 top.
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willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Have you considered a trailing stop? I've got some shares I want to dispose of as well; considered selling at 233, but instead I waited for 250 and set a -6% trailing stop. So far it's been keeping up with the rally very well, and it has taken the emotion out of timing an exit for me.
myt-e-s-l-a
Member
Rolling again to improve position. Strike price from 250 to 260 and expdt from 3d to 8d.
TSLA @ 271.10
BTC +10x CC tsla 230623C250 @ 22.05
STO -10x CC tsla 230630C260 @ 17.40
for debit $4.65
Very nice move!
I'm not familiar with the mechanics of a trailing stop order. Does your way mean that you won't be able to sell at the peak but you may be able to sell at 6% below the peak?
How do you guys handle capitulation when short calls become too red and get redder each day?
These are on a few naked calls (14x -C250 7/14, $8.02 extrinsic, red -$42k, it paid $28 premium, so $278 net for shares; or 19x -C240 9/15, $17.40 extrinsic, red -$80k (!), it paid 5.62/share so net $245.62). It was bad hygiene that I let them go so red. Mainly hopium that the run wasn’t sustainable.
Better to BTC now before SP runs more, take the loss ($42k and/or $80k) and make it up on share appreciation or still wait for a dip (which is still not coming)?
My fear is of them going redder and redder.
When do you say enough is enough? I know it depends on everybody’s particular circumstances, though are there some rules of thumb that you use?
Also does “bleeding the extrinsic” first before BTC still work when the share price is racing (can it outpace the gain of waiting)?
These are on a few naked calls (14x -C250 7/14, $8.02 extrinsic, red -$42k, it paid $28 premium, so $278 net for shares; or 19x -C240 9/15, $17.40 extrinsic, red -$80k (!), it paid 5.62/share so net $245.62). It was bad hygiene that I let them go so red. Mainly hopium that the run wasn’t sustainable.
Better to BTC now before SP runs more, take the loss ($42k and/or $80k) and make it up on share appreciation or still wait for a dip (which is still not coming)?
My fear is of them going redder and redder.
When do you say enough is enough? I know it depends on everybody’s particular circumstances, though are there some rules of thumb that you use?
Also does “bleeding the extrinsic” first before BTC still work when the share price is racing (can it outpace the gain of waiting)?
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By vowing never to sell uncovered positions ever again. I lost 6-figures after the Hertz deal (too many call spreads) that was never recovered. I currently have overrun short calls that I don't worry about, because I can just roll them out and up with the shares backing them. If they eventually get called away, then it just means my gains were capped and I'd have cash to sell more cash-secured puts.
So just bite the bullet and close them? I know I could roll and try to reduce contracts with the credits, etc but that seems to just be putting off the inevitable. Also is waiting for extrinsic to bleed out a thing or that doesn’t apply when the share price is racing?
No, it's that I get +~$10 per contract, so for every 4x I roll I can also sell a Dec -c300 and reduce the -c200's by 1x, so in this case 20x -c200 -> 16x -c200 & 4x -c300
And I have 6 months still to roll the lot, but need to deal with the July expiry and after playing about with the options calculators I don't see much benefit from waiting any longer, just deal with them now
Of course one could argue to roll the whole lot up $10 - $15 strike, that's another approach. Also you can just leave the -c200's in place and sell puts and keep the cash, each approach has pros-and-cons
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Correct. The peak since I've placed the order is $271.53, so my stop was last updated to $255.22. If the SP climbs above $271.53 without first touching $255.22, the stop will continue to climb as well.
There is some risk on sharp moves, as once it hits the stop, it will convert into a market order; but a market order placed at $255.22 is still likely to fetch me a better sale price than my initial instinct to sell at $233.
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