Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

Ok, thanks, I learn more about GAAP every day, but I think that Tesla has a more JIT kind of approach for goods to be delivered and inventory maybe for max 5 weeks or so. The best warehouse being no warehouse. (I don’t know if you know but in fact Tesla uses the docked trailers as temporary warehouses all the time, at least in Berlin!)
[edit; not in your hometown indeed /edit]

100% for the actual production it’s a JIT approach, with maybe 1-2 days physical in plant, maybe a week onsite, but its more about when did they sign a contract and or pay for the material going into the car. SOME companies book cost at contracting, some book cost at delivery, some book cost at PAYMENT which could be months if not quarters later depending on terms. I don’t think they can move the pricing around, and they certainly cannot change it often without running afoul of GAAP and audit requirements. My guess is they are using contracting for pricing, so it would be older and most likely HIGHER FIFO pricing than where it was when installed/used or delivered or paid. I’m sure someone somewhere has done this analysis.

Off topic: I helped setup a factory in Alabama about 28 years ago for a German OEM. We had rail cars brining in parts, completed engines, materials for 2-3 days of production, and the rail cars hauled out completed vehicles. We called that JIT. ;-)

 

[juanmedina]

Any thoughts about the sell off just now? I am tempted about doing some buy writes because I have no upside and I think I will be able to roll up the calls. I sold a few $257.5/$250 BPS.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Any thoughts about the sell off just now? I am tempted about doing some buy writes because I have no upside and I think I will be able to roll up the calls. I sold a few $257.5/$250 BPS.

Seems market-wide.

 

[elasalle]

Closed 6 Mar 350 put’s for a quick 3K, risk off
If there is sell off before 4 pm will add them back…

Stuck to plan, sold 5 Jun 24 300 PUTS for $52+ each ... just incase SP goes up else IV, and existing CC's will do the job

 

[Max Plaid]

Stuck to plan, sold 5 Jun 24 300 PUTS for $52+ each ... just incase SP goes up else IV, and existing CC's will do the job

Do weekly IV variations have an impact on LEAPS?

 

[elasalle]

Do weekly IV variations have an impact on LEAPS?

it does.(or could be other vectors, like vega etc., but definitely prices do increase, decrease around a binary event) Not sure of the proper Black Scholes, math etc, but observation. If SP stays stagnant today, I expect the prices to drop tomorrow.
e.g. 2 days back, Tesla SP was up by $2, Jun 350 Calls were up by $6, I ended the day in my personal account with a loss for day.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

EPS ok opex bit high

 

[Max Plaid]

EPS ok opex bit high

Looks like a beat pretty much everywhere, but margins down quite a bit - I see it a neutral to positive, shouldn't provoke a huge move in either direction, but let's see what comes out of the earning's call, these are often brining more volatility than the shareholder deck

 

[dl003]

@dl003 would this be the 296 ceiling which we bumped our head into (and…. Did you do IT -besides closing the ATM -P)

Im still holding those -310Ps. Opened them at 276 so not sweating it yet.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Looks like a beat pretty much everywhere, but margins down quite a bit - I see it a neutral to positive, shouldn't provoke a huge move in either direction, but let's see what comes out of the earning's call, these are often brining more volatility than the shareholder deck

But energy is booming (GM taking off now, business-part growing) so for close followers this IS significant, but not enough to go through 300 tomorrow, as hitting forecast ALWAYS will disappoint shareholders the day after…

 

[SpeedyEddy]

So only a huge announcement at earningscall can bring us to 312 tomorrow as far as I can guess.

 

[dl003]

With this result, even if 298 was the top, which I doubt, I don't see us pulling back any further than 240 by the end of August.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Agree on that

 

[Jim Holder]

With this result, even if 298 was the top, which I doubt, I don't see us pulling back any further than 240 by the end of August.

I take it you didn’t sell @$296-$298 and still long?

 

[dl003]

I take it you didn’t sell @$296-$298 and still long?

When I said a long position, I was referring to a short put. I don't sell my shares.

 

[Jim Holder]

When I said a long position, I was referring to a short put. I don't sell my shares.

Thanks for clarifying! When you wrote Delta long to $296 and go flat, I misread that as shares.

 

[traxila]

These are great earnings for a company still in major ramp mode that will continue to ramp for a minimum of five years.

Don't think they are good enough to catapult the SP from here as far as shortsighted WS is concerned.

I write this because I am almost always wrong and as such we will see 350 by end of next week.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Earningscall does not reveal much but 1time opportunity in Q3 to transfer FSD to a new car WILL intensify orders(mine for sure!!!!) Talks with an OEM on licensing FSD is huge news. That will not reach WS because WS does not count in (much of) FSD (same for teslabot)

 

[BornToFly]

Wow, the ER call dropped the SP around 4%. I don't know if we have had this bad an ER call before. This helped my naked calls and may help me rebuy some shares.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wow, the ER call dropped the SP around 4%. I don't know if we have had this bad an ER call before. This helped my naked calls and may help me rebuy some shares.

Need I remind you of the nightmare that was the Q4'21 earnings call? Stock tanked the day after that call. I believe that was the first call after which Elon said he would only be present when needed, came onto the call for a product road map update, then gave no road map whatsoever and proceeded to crap all over the idea of a "Model 2" (for lack of a better term). I remember having the worst feeling after that earnings call I've ever had from any Tesla earnings.

EDIT: Yes, this was the call I was thinking of: "The CEO also said the company is not currently working on a $25,000 compact electric vehicle, contrary to the ambitions he announced at a Tesla Battery Day presentation in 2020."


Tomorrow will have me wondering what to do with the 15 7/21 $270 puts I bought yesterday and this morning.