Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

Day #6 tracking QTA generated levels
TSLA respected the box again: Bounced off daily range low, hit absGEX magnet, then lost momo and fell back toward range low.

 

[Jim Holder]

Currently holding
2x 9/29 -C275 @ $2.10
10x 9/29 -C280 @ $1.30
20x 9/29 -C285 @ $.80
20x 10/20 -C300 @ $3.75

Planning to BTC on next leg down/general weakness and go flat before 9/29 EOD. Will add a few on any strength but not expecting much pop at this point.

If TSLA breaks $253 with volume and conviction then I'll likely sell my 6,000 longs and ride it down.

Fun times!

 

[tivoboy]

Currently holding
2x 9/29 -C275 @ $2.10
10x 9/29 -C280 @ $1.30
20x 9/29 -C285 @ $.80
20x 10/20 -C300 @ $3.75

Planning to BTC on next leg down/general weakness and go flat before 9/29 EOD. Will add a few on any strength but not expecting much pop at this point.

If TSLA breaks $253 with volume and conviction then I'll likely sell my 6,000 longs and ride it down.

Fun times!

There might be some nice money tomorrow or early next week for some 9/29 -P 200-220$ ranges.

Never good when they sell the futures hard at the close..

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I opened a small IC position: 9/22 +p250/-p260/-c270/+c280 just for fun. I’ll probably lose it, as it’s an aggressive bet on IV collapse and not SP change. Otherwise, I still have all my shares covered by short CCs, a few 1-3 weeks out, but most into 2024/5 -c300 to -c310s. I’m still worried about a drop back to 220s before returning to 300s+ next year.

Well, that was a VERY interesting ride. Stupid, but interesting. Both short legs went from about $0.50 to $5 and back again (or vice verse). Unfortunately, instead of perfectly timing the closure of each leg, I just held and watched my +$500 profits evaporate to -$800, then back to +$100 at yesterday’s close. This morning wasn’t much better, but I managed to close the short call side at the MMD bottom, wait for a SP jump, then close the long call side, roll the BPS out to 10/06 +p245/-p255 for $0.50 cr, and then pair with-c270/+c280 for another $2.50 cr. Not perfectly timed, but better than nothing.

Finally, with the extra premium from above, I decided to open another IC, this time 1DTE 9/22: +p247.50/-p252.50/-c267.50/+c272.50 for $0.87. I chose odd strikes to make sure I didn’t re-trade something that I had just closed. Again, probably stupid and I will roll the BPS side if we dump again tomorrow. I still have almost all of my shares covered with -CCs, so those will benefit if the SP continues down to the $220 channel bottom. As always, GLTA.

STO 20x 9/29 -c270 @$3.1

That's me done for the week, can relax now and enjoy the show

I had a similar idea, but got greedy with a $4 order that never hit.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I had a posting ready, but it was lost somewhere. It was about my strategy:
- deciding on long entry points for shares, LEAPs and -P 2026 to finance a part of it. Happy to have followed my convictions this week, brought me another happy day:
- Gains on partly closed ARM puts (which IPO/SPAC somebody told us would be different: nehhh, They NEVER are especially in tech)
- Tesla 255 puts sold with 100% profit
- Closed KRE puts with a profit (JPM and WFC lagging, but I trust it will go green soon)
- added long positions Sofi and Palantir, maybe early, but cheaper than I closed them last week. (just 20% bought back, so any drop is another opportunity)
In terms of absolute $ worth it was a neutral day (not bad in a dropping market) and I repositioned mainly to lower strikeprice LEAPS on TSLA PLTR, so better leveraged on the way up.
Margins on (today opened) :
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Sep22'23 262.5 -CALL (tiny bit)
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Sep29'23 300 -CALL (tiny bit)
TSLA NASDAQ.NMS Dec15'23 240 -PUT (tiny bit)

TSLA calls hedged for 50% with (cheaper bought) shares

Today's move into the close is IMHO indicating what I said earlier, leaving an 9/21 island in the middle of what tomorrow will look like a perfect even island reversal, heading to the oversoldnes I personally would like to see. Then think opposite of dec '22 and jan '23, I don't expand on -P if tomorrow is lower, I have NO shares at all, but a few OTM LEAPS
Waiting for the bottom which must be Wycoff-style lower and oversold greatly. If it does not happen, I am cr.w.d and shall not weep, when being forced to go back long above $270 (where I started selling).
Second time this year I follow this course, first time profitably, but not even close to perfection. Sitting on my hands is very difficult, but I remember @dl003 's words, think opposite of what the big boys try to let you think. And never forget the simple way to gain: Sell high and buy low and don't ever fomo. If you are young, DCA in slow, but faster when below 200MA on the stocks you believe in. Concentrate, because you can not follow 20 stocks good enough (if wanted, invest in S&P index instead). When older: maybe switch to something less volatile than Tesla or have nerves as steel.
Concluding and promise to myself:
After this dip is over I stop walking the edge, because it takes too much time and frustration, unnecessary. I want to enjoy what I have worked for and not chase to cover all of my losses instantly and just write some harmless OTM options for a nice diner now and then... driving around my new Tesla model Y with my wife.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

PS Volume far too low to call it a crash already, but elsewhere volumes increase. SPY nearing 429.70 bottom..

 

[Jim Holder]

FWIW Cary says below $266 is a sustained sell signal and no reason to be long.

Closing below $253 brings $240’s.

If there’s a DCB to $268 to consider shorting it since it’ll likely rotate back down.

It’ll take a close over $268 for any new upside.

 

[bballshinobi]

FWIW Cary says below $266 is a sustained sell signal and no reason to be long.

Closing below $253 brings $240’s.

If there’s a DCB to $268 to consider shorting it since it’ll likely rotate back down.

It’ll take a close over $268 for any new upside.

That Youtuber basically just draws a bunch of channels. His "prediction" is only accurate when the stock is NOT moving i.e. floating in an up or down trend, but is useless when you have a trend change. IIRC, he was just calling for $305 a few weeks ago because "the trend is up". If you want to use a youtuber for stock prediction, I think Ron Walker is actually better even though he doesn't talk about TSLA.

 

[tivoboy]

FWIW Cary says below $266 is a sustained sell signal and no reason to be long.

Closing below $253 brings $240’s.

If there’s a DCB to $268 to consider shorting it since it’ll likely rotate back down.

It’ll take a close over $268 for any new upside.

We made several runs to try and clear~ $275 with confidence and conviction, and sadly didn‘t. “In this run”
I’m sure @dl has a nice chart with his “triple top” represented and what the next wave - most likely down looks like. We’ve already seen the projections, so why fight the trend?

As you said, any low confidence DCB should and will be sold. We saw pretty much that today, it was actually buying and not Call buying that made that move and it lasted a New York Minute.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, that was a VERY interesting ride. Stupid, but interesting. Both short legs went from about $0.50 to $5 and back again (or vice verse). Unfortunately, instead of perfectly timing the closure of each leg, I just held and watched my +$500 profits evaporate to -$800, then back to +$100 at yesterday’s close. This morning wasn’t much better, but I managed to close the short call side at the MMD bottom, wait for a SP jump, then close the long call side, roll the BPS out to 10/06 +p245/-p255 for $0.50 cr, and then pair with-c270/+c280 for another $2.50 cr. Not perfectly timed, but better than nothing.

Finally, with the extra premium from above, I decided to open another IC, this time 1DTE 9/22: +p247.50/-p252.50/-c267.50/+c272.50 for $0.87. I chose odd strikes to make sure I didn’t re-trade something that I had just closed. Again, probably stupid and I will roll the BPS side if we dump again tomorrow. I still have almost all of my shares covered with -CCs, so those will benefit if the SP continues down to the $220 channel bottom. As always, GLTA.


I had a similar idea, but got greedy with a $4 order that never hit.

How are you determining your target premiums? Used to be OptionsCalculator for me, but now I use OptionStrat as the former has a very clunky interface, which although not perfect (as IV moves rapidly and I'm not sure it adapts to that in real time), gives a pretty good indication as to what SP you need to get that premium. OptionsStrat you can move the strike, export and IV around quickly with sliders - this is available in the free version

To get $4.1 for -c270's yesterday, we needed to hit 263 and above - that's the sort of trade I would try for in the opening 10 minute IV spike and volatility, they sometimes stick and I would have placed the order before market open, but yesterday would never have hit, and in any case, I didn't decide to buy the 2026 LEAPS and sell against them until the daily downtrend look set

$3.1 I setup when the stock was being capped at 258, but looked like it was trying to break out. So I went for it and it filled - you need patience for these, it took about an hour... if it had not worked I was going to take whatever was on offer end of the day

 

[dl003]

We made several runs to try and clear~ $275 with confidence and conviction, and sadly didn‘t. “In this run”
I’m sure @dl has a nice chart with his “triple top” represented and what the next wave - most likely down looks like. We’ve already seen the projections, so why fight the trend?

As you said, any low confidence DCB should and will be sold. We saw pretty much that today, it was actually buying and not Call buying that made that move and it lasted a New York Minute.

At this point I dont know what next week is going to look like, but my wildest projection for the next 6 months is a big triple top with 298 being the first peak and 279 the 2nd. So a lot more pain to come is the default scenario.

HOWEVER, and this is extremely important, the 280-291 gap has not been filled yet and we don't know P&D and ER yet. So, until the 2023 uptrend is broken, always be on the lookout for one final bull trap to clear out all the shorts, filling the gap, before going down for good. If the stock keeps crashing from here, and it's not that far from testing the lower trendline from here, then obviously the gap will have to wait. Maybe we'll pull a Q1 2022 ER move or maybe it's going to be a Q3 2022 P&D. I'm still going to be flat on weeklies by EOW next week.

 

[UncaNed]

View attachment 976016

@SpeedyEddy Is that ultra red? Why does my ordering finger keep trying to click it's way towards tesla.com's order page all of a sudden?

Sorry off topic, but I can't help myself. A million thanks to you (and so many others here) for your contributions to this thread.

 

[dl003]

I had high hope for 320+ this year but this chart says the final rally had been frontloaded too much. Aka there's been a tremendous effort by big players to offload their shares long before numbers are released. Plus, my friend and confidante has nearly convinced me that we might have had our 5th wave at 298 so now everything starts to make sense. I trust him more than anyone else in this business but he and, by extension, I won't be proven right until we've bottomed out exactly the way it looks here before making new ATHs. So we'll see.

 

[juanmedina]

At this point I dont know what next week is going to look like, but my wildest projection for the next 6 months is a big triple top with 298 being the first peak and 279 the 2nd. So a lot more pain to come is the default scenario.

HOWEVER, and this is extremely important, the 280-291 gap has not been filled yet and we don't know P&D and ER yet. So, until the 2023 uptrend is broken, always be on the lookout for one final bull trap to clear out all the shorts, filling the gap, before going down for good. If the stock keeps crashing from here, and it's not that far from testing the lower trendline from here, then obviously the gap will have to wait. Maybe we'll pull a Q1 2022 ER move or maybe it's going to be a Q3 2022 P&D. I'm still going to be flat on weeklies by EOW next week.

"Before going down for good" to what level?

Hold has not work out here at all. If we are still under $300 by January we would essentially have done nothing for the last 3 years. Any thoughts about 2024? I see a lot of post saying that 2024 is going to be a hard year. I am still hoping for an end of year rally in which I am considering selling a large portion of my holdings.

 

[EXOTIC1]

Will TSLA hit $300….. before $200?

anyone with thoughts on this. I’ve owned the stock for 8+ years. I’m very much an amateur at this but may just take my profits and move to another stock. The ups/ downs have been interesting over since 2015 with this
Thx in advance

 

[SpeedyEddy]

@SpeedyEddy Is that ultra red? Why does my ordering finger keep trying to click it's way towards tesla.com's order page all of a sudden?

Sorry off topic, but I can't help myself. A million thanks to you (and so many others here) for your contributions to this thread.

Midnight Cherry Red from Giga Berlin (LR) as you can see in my tag.

 

[dl003]

"Before going down for good" to what level?

Hold has not work out here at all. If we are still under $300 by January we would essentially have done nothing for the last 3 years. Any thoughts about 2024? I see a lot of post saying that 2024 is going to be a hard year. I am still hoping for an end of year rally in which I am considering selling a large portion of my holdings.

I don't agree that holding has not worked out here at all. Looking back, we were what? $26 on January 1st 2020? How many stocks have 10x in not even 3 years and still kept their gain? Holding has worked out beautifully if your entry was good and unfortunately, most entries since 2021 has been crap. But that doesn't mean the stock is hopeless. On the contrary, it's stronger than most things you'll find on the Street. It just needs more time to digest the 10x gain and that's a lot of gain to digest.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

That Youtuber basically just draws a bunch of channels. His "prediction" is only accurate when the stock is NOT moving i.e. floating in an up or down trend, but is useless when you have a trend change. IIRC, he was just calling for $305 a few weeks ago because "the trend is up". If you want to use a youtuber for stock prediction, I think Ron Walker is actually better even though he doesn't talk about TSLA.

And very repetitive ("again..") plus You have to speed up to at least 1.5 (as for most YouTubers. Sam Evans (electric Viking, bit of a copycat, but very productive)2x even.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I don't agree that holding has not worked out here at all. Looking back, we were what? $26 on January 2020? How many stocks have 10x in not even 3 years and still kept their gain? Holding has worked out beautifully if your entry was good and unfortunately, most entries since 2021 has been crap. But that doesn't mean the stock is hopeless. On the contrary, it's stronger than most things you'll find on the Street. It just needs more time to digest the 10x gain and that's a lot of gain to digest.

100%

 

[dl003]

anyone with thoughts on this. I’ve owned the stock for 8+ years. I’m very much an amateur at this but may just take my profits and move to another stock. The ups/ downs have been interesting over since 2015 with this
Thx in advance

Sir, this is a Wendy.