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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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TSLA has fallen off the mini uptrend so there's a very low chance of breaking 278 by EOW next week. 280Cs should be fine. Whenever this happen (breaking down from an uptrend), my to go scenario will be a bigger triple top / triple bottom setup, which makes 279 again possible, although highly unlikely, but breaking out of it isn't.

253.4 is another strong support here. We're no longer talking about 247-279 retracement as the uptrend has been broken. Now we're talking 212-279. As such, the first significant fib level is the 0.618 @ 253.3. Anchored VWAP runs right below it. Also the 0.382 fib channel line running from 102 cutting right above it. I sold puts, like I said I would.

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Thanks!

Would you say TSLA breaking $253 means time to sell longs (for those of us that get out on downtrends and get back in on reversals back up) because the elevator is likely to drop a lot, or would it be a different level?
 
Looking to buy back the 7 10/20 -c275 today at <6$ (at $250 SP or below we should be there
250 will be there soon I guess because today a weird kind of half-way island reversal from 9/11 can turn out to be another in-between Island tomorrow, which would be very bearish, unless we fill 163.91 today too, which to be honest I don't see happening yet, 258.50 ceiling turning into resistance
 
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Quick update. Closed my short puts since I don't like this.
1695309159044.png
 
We might think it's bad for $TSLA, but imagine what the $NVDA folks are thinking right now after their blow-out Q2 🤷‍♂️

Looks like "they" want a ~260 close tomorrow and they're holding it around 258 - volume looks low, so easy enough to manage

A CT delivery event announcement now would spice things up a bit...

I've done some trades today:

Wanted to leverage my 100x Nov +p200's, but didn't want to bet the farm. Tried an audacious 100x -p250 sell @$4.1 for this week expiry, set that before market open in case there was a push below 250, but never came

Instead I settled on 50x 9/29 -p240 @$1.70, seems a reasonable bet before P&D, and I keep 50x contracts in my pocket for rolling

Next challenge for today was to close out 20x -p270's, they've almost no extrinsic left, so didn't want to wait until tomorrow... I decided to roll and sold 20x 9/29 -p270 @$16.1 on a dip, then BTC the 20x 9/22 -p270 on a pop, so that was a net +$4.2, which is more than the ~$2 that an immediate roll offered

I decided to get a bit "clever" with this strike, so I BTO 20x Jan 2026 +c270 and have a sell order @$3.1 for 20x 9/29 -c270's -> the rationale there is that I can roll the straddle for two years if I want, will almost certainly pay for the calls after a few months, any pop back above 270 gives the put premiums, the call premiums and +$10 on the long calls, seems like a reasonable "bet" to me to harvest some weekly Theta with little risk

So most of my portfolio is long/short LEAPS now, but I have a few weeklies for entertainment value
 
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I don’t think there is enough money and contracts YET in 0DTE on SPY for a 5% flash crash to occur. At closer to 2-2.5% there would be way (and by that I mean an order of magnitude way) more money in any front week/month contracts for buyers to come in and buy and break the 0DTE for that one day.
I mean trading hours. could be a SPY 433 significant break tomorrow afternoon and then a run down badly on Monday. Tomorrow not likely indeed.
AND I HAVE TO CORRECT MYSELF ON THE TARGET, would be 413.85 next FIB level and not 410..
 
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Opened 20x 9/29 -c280s at $1.05 shortly after open. I want to open some 9/29 -p225s, but am looking for a better price than the current ~$0.40.
Give it a day or two.. price action across the board is poor.. I don’t expect TSLA to be spared or avoid what seems to be an objective based, or possibly necessary 8-13% NASDAQ pull back.
 
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