Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Day #5 tracking QTA generated levels, not bad so far!

View attachment 975659

Is this info you can give us BEFORE it happens?

Well, I didn't close out the -p270's, partly because I was in band rehearsal when we peaked for the day, also probably going to roll them, so better to wait until Friday - these are now paired with Dec 2025 +p270's, so I'll just take the weekly Theta until they go OTM or very ITM, and if the latter happens I'll throw them to mid-2024

 

[Jim Holder]

Is this info you can give us BEFORE it happens?

Lol. Posted the ranges earlier at market open. I wish too it’d predict the moves but it’s impressive how TSLA respects the levels it suggests nonetheless. Lately I’ve been shorting (selling calls) at touches of the top of the daily range and BTC on hitting low of the daily range when it does for some intraday scalps. Also buying calls there sometimes for the bounce. Fun!

 

[khill]

actually I'm not looking for 255 anymore. 260 maybe.

Is that because Tesla was relatively very strong compared to the rest of the market today?

 

[dl003]

Is that because Tesla was relatively very strong compared to the rest of the market today?

This leg is already long in the tooth. I still fully expect a much steeper drop if PD disappoints, but for the remaining 7 days it just wouldnt look right if that happened. I can see maybe 257 by Monday. The Fed today sounded a bit more hawkish than anticipated, but the tech earning season starts in 8 trading days and normally this is not the time for the market to crash. Anyway, I didnt think a change of $5 would cause quite a stir. Maybe Im wrong. Personally I would prefer more pain here but somehow I feel like this is close to it.

 

[khill]

This leg is already long in the tooth. I still fully expect a much steeper drop if PD disappoints, but for the remaining 7 days it just wouldnt look right if that happened. I can see maybe 257 by Monday. The Fed today sounded a bit more hawkish than anticipated, but the tech earning season starts in 8 trading days and normally this is not the time for the market to crash. Anyway, I didnt think a change of $5 would cause quite a stir. Maybe Im wrong. Personally I would prefer more pain here but somehow I feel like this is close to it.

Thanks, this helps.

 

[Max Plaid]

Now that's an ugly pre-market today, question is whether it's a head-fake - we saw in recent weeks that deep red PM reversed in main, and vice-versa, will that trend continue

For my part, looking to resell 100x -p??? for this week's expiry, 255's should be OK given the big put presence 260 and below, but if the macro is going to dump, maybe not?

One thing for sure, I want to be out of those short puts before P&D

 

[SpeedyEddy]

In my opinion first thing is to fill the gap 150-155 downward and if that is not enough we come to (and should be happy seeing!) a wycoff dip below last low which I don’t want to name as the 101.81 (that really would be shocking, filling the last $97 gap that was left early januari as I was assuming much too long to HAVE to happen, holding me back from buying back in) but I guess 230 would be the target, maybe the gap to 180 even. For today I bought a bit, too early, premarket @260.50 but will double my holdings @250.50, counting on at least a DCB from there to 255 or even 263 at which point (if on low volume) I would go bearish again. Now is especially not the time to go -P IMHO. -C could be dangerous as well, so I just hold on to stocks, until the path gets cleared. Guess my Friday P 255’s will be worth a lot later today. I had a sell order ready, that maybe I will even stretch out further.

 

[juanmedina]

We should see a bounce here, right? I wish I had gotten defensive like some of you guys but I was waiting for the IV to kick in next week before P&D. I did buy a bunch 200p for October 6 and I will probably buy more next week if we are up.

And what is up with the Cybertruck? Q3 is essentially over and nothing.

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA generated levels for today:

Range high: $262.31
Range low: $253.39

STO 5x 9/29 -C280 @$1.30
Starter position

 

[elasalle]

Was expecting something different ..
..rolled sold CCs to Jan 24 360 CC's and got me 6 Dec 25 250 Calls .... and 18 more shares with the loose change
Calls mainly against Jan 25 250 Calls .. so some more theta decay and still wanting to keep the calls till like Mar 24

cheers!!

 

[Knightshade]

This leg is already long in the tooth. I still fully expect a much steeper drop if PD disappoints, but for the remaining 7 days it just wouldnt look right if that happened. I can see maybe 257 by Monday.

Or this morning apparently!

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Give the guy a break he's mostly more right than the rest of us.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I did not wait out the 250.50 but got 60% of shares desired @ 256 and a bit. Think we're getting a pause to rethink positions for half an hour or so

 

[EXOTIC1]

Makes no sense to me that TSLA is down significantly more in last few sessions than the legacy auto makers over the last week. Wall Street is a joke.

 

[dl003]

Makes no sense to me that TSLA is down more than the legacy auto makers over the last week. Wall Street is a joke.

Made any sense TSLA jumped from 247 to 278 based on robotaxi that isn't even on the road yet?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

occasionally still looking at SPY 0DTE's and people are making losses like hell. If the bottom (433) breaks things can go very ugly in a flash crash to 410 in a matter of hours. Thinking about making powder dry now.

 

[tivoboy]

As silly as it might appear, I think it was Fed related.. and we’re clearly in the higher for longer narrative and prediction.

For Tesla, and autos that’s going to keep lending rates higher for longer, which puts downward pressure on borrowing and thus buying. We’re sitting at about 300-325 bps higher than Feb 2022 rates, and it does have an effect on purchasing decisions.

I fully expect domestic OEM’s and Tesla included to start BUYING DOWN lending rates. Domestic OEM have already started this and will increase their buy down. Tesla historically hasn’t really done this, but I believe they will soon begin. We could start seeing it within days. I’d put it at probably somewhere between 150-200 bps buy down. ~ 2.99-3.99% rates for 700+ buyers.

To that end, I still continue to think we’ll see disproportionate downward pressure on our trading vehicle, so I’m taking a gentleman’s (or gentle-ladies) bet with dl003 that we’ll see sub 255/250.

still short the 7 -c275 10/20 (19.5) but i’d like to buy them back and sell some closer to the money 10/20 for higher premium.

Looking to buy back the 7 10/20 -c275 today at <6$ (at $250 SP or below we should be there)

 

[tivoboy]

occasionally still looking at SPY 0DTE's and people are making losses like hell. If the bottom (433) breaks things can go very ugly in a flash crash to 410 in a matter of hours. Thinking about making powder dry now.

I don’t think there is enough money and contracts YET in 0DTE on SPY for a 5% flash crash to occur. At closer to 2-2.5% there would be way (and by that I mean an order of magnitude way) more money in any front week/month contracts for buyers to come in and buy and break the 0DTE for that one day.

 

[Jim Holder]

@dl003 First, thanks for being so generous with your time and your excellent analysis, we all benefit from it (and TMC needs a tip jar!)

What NTM levels are you seeing that can be safe-ish to sell calls for 9/22 and 9/29?
(I know we said not a good idea to sell calls now before P&D but maybe given the weakness overall it's okay to take a shot and feed off the chop?)

 

[dl003]

@dl003 First, thanks for being so generous with your time and your excellent analysis, we all benefit from it (and TMC needs a tip jar!)

What NTM levels are you seeing that can be safe-ish to sell calls for 9/22 and 9/29?
(I know we said not a good idea to sell calls now before P&D but maybe given the weakness overall it's okay to take a shot and feed off the chop?)

TSLA has fallen off the mini uptrend so there's a very low chance of breaking 278 by EOW next week. 280Cs should be fine. Whenever this happen (breaking down from an uptrend), my to go scenario will be a bigger triple top / triple bottom setup, which makes 279 again possible, although highly unlikely, but breaking out of it isn't.

253.4 is another strong support here. We're no longer talking about 247-279 retracement as the uptrend has been broken. Now we're talking 212-279. As such, the first significant fib level is the 0.618 @ 253.3. Anchored VWAP runs right below it. Also the 0.382 fib channel line running from 102 cutting right above it. I sold puts, like I said I would.