Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Cherry Wine]

There was little credit left in the current position and I wanted to capture the premium on the new position while I could. With that said, I actually like the setup for another bounce...stock seems like it wants to test that $226-$242ish gap. I'm considering another short-term lotto play. If we get a small dump at the open tomorrow I might take a flier on some call options.

Alright...in for a small buy for 11/17 +c240s...essentially turning my 11/17 -c250s into a debit spread. Conviction is low, so position is sized proportionally. I've been pretty fortunate directionally the last two months so I'm bound to get one of these calls wrong eventually.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Usually 1st 30 minutes of opening are volatile. Macro deflating now......

 

[BornToFly]

Seems to me TSLA is being supported by macros - definitely underperforming Nasdaq this week.

If this is true - a down market day will see the SP fall quit a bit.

Hard to know when the Cybertruck delivery event FOMO starts.

 

[BornToFly]

Despite the strong sell off in the first hour, we still haven't hit the lows of the previous three trading days yet.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Despite the strong sell off in the first hour, we still haven't hit the lows of the previous three trading days yet.

But I guess that will happen (212 today maybe even?) surfing the wave with fewer shares and profit taken on half of my LEAPs/-P. Will only DAY-trade, planning to be back in on somewhere between 212 and a bit above 215 (if 215 holds again, I am getting more convinced of not hitting 205-212 before a next significant rise (240 gap-fill) and stronger believing in 240-212-340-300-ATH).

 

[EVNow]

Hard to know when the Cybertruck delivery event FOMO starts.

Not expecting much of anything on CT. Market seems to have written it off as a niche car that won’t affect the financials much in 2024. Slow rollout and Elon saying how difficult it is to manufacture doesn’t help, either.

 

[juanmedina]

Not expecting much of anything on CT. Market seems to have written it off as a niche car that won’t affect the financials much in 2024. Slow rollout and Elon saying how difficult it is to manufacture doesn’t help, either.

How long will take the Cybertruck to pass the Ford lighting monthly sales? My guess is not that long; Ford sold 3,712 lightings in October.

 

[BornToFly]

Not expecting much of anything on CT. Market seems to have written it off as a niche car that won’t affect the financials much in 2024. Slow rollout and Elon saying how difficult it is to manufacture doesn’t help, either.

Nah. All FUD. Market is pretending, but the excitement of the Delivery event will make it obvious. Just look at the videos of all the bystanders/regular folks going crazy every time it drives by. Nobody ignores this thing.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Anyone still holding AAPL Puts or closed during the morning pump? Seem to be deflating now along with Macro.

Waiting to hear from DI003 if gameplan has changed?

 

[BornToFly]

Looks like MY and M3 are getting a price increase in China. I don't think the SP is going back to 212 without a big macro drop, and I expect markets to keep trending up even if they rest for a day or two.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Anyone still holding AAPL Puts or closed during the morning pump? Seem to be deflating now along with Macro.

Waiting to hear from DI003 if gameplan has changed?

I sold half of it to buy the odds that AAPL will be above 190 on nov 24. So either big move will bring in money, hovering 180-ish will loose all of it...

 

[OrthoSurg]

Anyone still holding AAPL Puts or closed during the morning pump? Seem to be deflating now along with Macro.

Waiting to hear from DI003 if gameplan has changed?

Didn’t close them yet
Juste because I didn’t have time this morning
Too busy at work

 

[EVNow]

How long will take the Cybertruck to pass the Ford lighting monthly sales? My guess is not that long; Ford sold 3,712 lightings in October.

Beating Ford lightning sales will not move the market. Beating F150 on the other hand ..

ps : Just want to add an obvious thing. TSLA valuation is nothing like Ford or GM or VW. Comparison to how their EVs are doing is not useful. It’s all about Tesla competing against expectations.

Model 3 started as a BMW 3 competitor and has done well. Model Y too compared to RAV4 or CRV. So, how does CT do compared to Ford F-150 ?

 

[BornToFly]

Short sellers are so weak! We are going to close above 220 again. My 230CC just won't die.

 

[EVNow]

Short sellers are so weak! We are going to close above 220 again. My 230CC just won't die.

We have had in the past 3 or 4 weeks when the SP closed about the same strike in a row. We may get a repeat barring big news.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Short sellers are so weak! We are going to close above 220 again. My 230CC just won't die.

Didn't you check the post from Yesterday from big dog, Max Plaid? He holding up the market

Guess they ran out of steam.....But seem like Macro is not too bad hence keep SP up.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Didn’t close them yet
Juste because I didn’t have time this morning
Too busy at work

Perhaps that a good thing. AAPL back down to below 182.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Anyone still holding AAPL Puts or closed during the morning pump? Seem to be deflating now along with Macro.

Waiting to hear from DI003 if gameplan has changed?

Still holding. I bought 1x 11/24 @ 170 for $0.33 and I'm waiting to get my free beer ($.06) gain for joining in with you guys.

 

[intelligator]

I don't know how to read the candles but there are more candy AAPL red 15m than green AAPL, rsi and stoch show momentum is weakening. Same for me, beer money at best, small risk for the fun nonetheless. TSLA also looks like it has some business to close out downtown, near 210. I set a close order for a little over half the break even at .80 , should hit at 215 if we can touch and go.

EDIT: but it can change, can't it ... see what we get the afternoon...

 

[EVNow]

Or worse - had a good close on Tuesday, didn't take it, and got to sweat out the rest of the week to see if I'd need to roll; if I'd taken the good close then I'd have opened a replacement position on Wed or Thurs.

This is actually risky, right ?

Let us say you have 230 CC.
- You can close on Tuesday if the option goes below 0.10. You want to do that in case the SP goes up rest of the week.
- But if you sell next week's CC, you might end up with it nearly ATM by the end of this week !

This has happened to me. I close early because of SP movement and sell next week's option. But a sharp reversal would make my option ATM (or ITM !) this week itself. So I've one more week for expiration and I'm staring at possibly DITM option.

Isn't it better to close early sit the market out till Friday / Monday ?

ps : Also, if we use the usual % OTM, it would be riskier because of larger number of days. Delta based selling would even out the risk, though.

pps : Now 197.50 put I sold for 50 cents is at 0.08 cents. Should I close it and open a new put tomorrow ? If so at what strike ? I'd probably open 190 at 50 cents (currently 42), for an improvement in strike.

The dilemma is because when closing early we are avoiding residual risk. But by opening a new position we are negating that residual risk avoidance move. Lets take a look at two of the possibilities -

1. SP moves down and closes at 200, safely above strike of 197.5. In this case it would have been better to close early (so as to avoid anxiety) but open new position only on Friday (or next Monday) for a strike of something like 175 or 180, a much better strike.

2. SP stays around 220. In this case closing early doesn't provide any benefit - but opening next week's put early either improves strike or gets us more premium.