Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

5. Layer in

Fantastic tips again, nr 5. being most valuable to me! Never thought of such an approach.
Thanks.

 

[Jim Holder]

And with that I mean as a minimum top. 340 would not even surprise me very much. But it will be punished hard. Parabolics always mirror..

Can you share how you are playing this week and next?

 

[dl003]

Wouldn't lower interest rates boost sales (margins) and sentiment, or so far that's way off so it doesn't count right now (Dec-Mar)?

correct. thats part of the gradual shift in the narrative. nothing Tesla did on Thursday deserved a 5% pump in the SP.

 

[Jim Holder]

correct. thats part of the gradual shift in the narrative. nothing Tesla did on Thursday deserved a 5% pump in the SP.

Perhaps then it qualifies as a technical breakout (long consolidation, tapping at resistance, many eyes on it, greed, etc pushed it through). If that’s the case, it might just be running on fumes and not get too high (unless a short or gamma squeeze gets triggered), hence your sentiment to tilt short over $260. Is that about right?

 

[elasalle]

Perhaps then it qualifies as a technical breakout (long consolidation, tapping at resistance, many eyes on it, greed, etc pushed it through). If that’s the case, it might just be running on fumes and not get too high (unless a short or gamma squeeze gets triggered), hence your sentiment to tilt short over $260. Is that about right?

isn't there a saying that the "market is forward looking" ?
Surely just Elon selling shares in open market was not the only thing that got us from ATH to almost ~120 last year ...?
Of the mag 7, what else has yet to test it's ATH? Of these, I think TSLA is the one that is most affected by interest rates...

 

[thenewguy1979]

correct. thats part of the gradual shift in the narrative. nothing Tesla did on Thursday deserved a 5% pump in the SP.

Self induced euphoria when you have people with lots of cash and the expectation is rate cut coming soon - which can impact high $ purchases. Either that or expectation Q4 is going be a blowout. I think both can be at play. But when Euphoria end and reality sink in that when the pump stop unless big catalyst are known.

 

[Jim Holder]

Gary didn’t get shares in time so he downgrades

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736509537710993601

 

[Jim Holder]

Cary suggests taking profits at/near the green line ($255-$262) and prepare for rotation down to retest $235 area or even lower over next several weeks. But keep an eye if TSLA closes above $262-$265 then get back in for possible $278 and even $300+ over next several months.

 

[Knightshade]

Gary didn’t get shares in time:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736509537710993601

Most Q4 delivery estimates are around 475-480k... Garys own is 476K.

How does he come up with 2.4M for 2024? Where's the other 500,000 deliveries coming from? Even if we're optimistic and think 100k with be cybertrucks-- there's no semi ramp in 2024, there's no compact car in 2024... S/X sales have remained below their years-ago peaks... he thinks there's another 500k 3/Y sales above 2023 #s to be had (with no IRA credits on 2 out of 3 Model 3 trims and unclear if enough capacity and batteries to produce them?)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

in response to @Jim Holder. Of course I am talking about my MA4X divergence theory. As expected divergence is set and direction is set, history repeating would imply at least 25% move up before reverting with a vengeance within 3 months (but it can be a few days as well)
First of all I stay cautious, because of the fact it can be busted this time.
I play it by the week and have set up the 3 months play, which is safe until a 3-5 %correction (=personal threshold for closing and going back to naked stocks and at 10% down personal threshold for selling stocks even (partly). I have published a lot of my moves, so you can know that I bought extra stock (partly) on margin to catch delta and maximised that by selling the 265 call for coming week. So 265 +premium -250 max Profit. Shares dropping below 250 by more than premium would be the bummer. But going where my MA4X mouth is: we will not yet correct. We all saw what happened on Friday, magma boiling, driving callwalls for last friday and next weeks higher.
My other trades were -P245 12/22 -P247.50 12/29 -P250 2024/1/16 -P241.67 2024/03/15
+C295 2024/2/16 (freebee, dinner-money, but who knows..)
further more doubled down on 2026 Jan +C510. As soon as that will have gained enough I will take it down to (1x)DITM LEAP-level.
As pointed out I will close (almost?)all of it on a 3-5% drop in a day or any heavy bearish macro-event. Because I was early on most ot the minus P I have some wiggle-room. An early crash would hurt. Once 265 is (b)reached, not so much
3% drop is threshold below 265. 4-5% if we go higher.
As you all know, I am mostly behind the homedesk so can move quickly.(mostly busy with my cinematic/photography-hobbies with one eye on SP. ) I want to make a few big hits before I return to safer weeklies, once in a while riding heavier waves and daytrading obvious moves.
Fridays I sometimes test a new approach. With Theta out of the way, getting a hunch about SP-course on the minute chart based on patterns and volume you can buy lots of options in the expected direction and make a nice amount of money in a few minutes with a low (only premium) risk. On a loss you close and try again. Mostly the other way until you go positive and then quit soon, before you go negative definitely. Don’t press it. Take the money and run. Mostly will do for a dinner or a weekend away. So your partner is happy with the trading one as well. Because: what are you doing it for exactly?
(Last Friday I did not try as nothing was very clear and the moves were too small and slow. although in the morning I nailed closing price, but later lowered it incorrectly because of volume and I did not see the 252.50 call wall was rising so fast. Should have traded that..)

 

[Priyankp]

Here for Yoona!

 

[juanmedina]

Here for Yoona!

We are about to get flooded

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Most Q4 delivery estimates are around 475-480k... Garys own is 476K.

How does he come up with 2.4M for 2024? Where's the other 500,000 deliveries coming from? Even if we're optimistic and think 100k with be cybertrucks-- there's no semi ramp in 2024, there's no compact car in 2024... S/X sales have remained below their years-ago peaks... he thinks there's another 500k 3/Y sales above 2023 #s to be had (with no IRA credits on 2 out of 3 Model 3 trims and unclear if enough capacity and batteries to produce them?)

Runrate 480+40%=632 times 4. Now you show me 1 year below 40% growth, then we talk.

 

[Priyankp]

all you guys DO know this already and you are a much more educated crowd than those in Twitter... imma just preaching to the choir here

1. Don't sell options with income in mind: "I gotta make $x this week". That's how you will quickly lose money, because no one can predict where the stock will go and, meanwhile, you're betting on a fixed strike due to income desire. Rather, sell with success in mind: "Based on TA, what delta or OTM% will make me win this week?" Income will be smaller, but probability of success is very high. (Trust me on this, I have proven stats.) I personally try to not go below 1 standard deviation from previous Friday Close, no matter what TA lines say. So you left a lot of money on the table. That's still better than weekly loss or rolling for debit or rolling with no income for weeks.

2. Do not go all-in, betting the farm especially at the start of the week because of "theta harvesting." Theta is overrated. One can many times get better prems on Wed than Mon. Patience is key.

3. At the risk of stating the obvious, wait for move with momentum before selling. That's where we get the high credits. If i see a sudden vertical spike up or down, that's my cue.

4. If selling IC, don't sell both sides in one transaction. If the day reversed, one side is quickly underwater. Wider width is much, much better than more contracts with narrow width: you want the IC to mimic a Short Strangle for easier rolling. Also, cheaper if rolling for debit.

5. Layer in. This is probably my #2 most important learning from the years. (#1 is Don't Lose Capital). If you have room for 12 contracts, do only 3 a day. This averaging will smooth out the week's unrealized loss, if any. Mon down: 3 BPS. Tue up: 6 BCS. Wed up again: 3 BCS. Thur down: 6 BPS. Sell only the side that's moving until all 12 are filled. On each day's sell, watch for the new delta or OTM%. So the Wed BCS should be different strikes than the Tue BCS, because you're de-risking and not getting stuck-up only on a particular strike due to "tall call wall or put wall." That's why you see my IC with many legs. Each day's new legs are moving in the direction of the stock. My IC is growing AND following the money. If the stock moved too far by Friday, then i only need to roll Monday's 3 legs, not all 12. 9 legs are safe this week. That means 75% win rate instead of rolling everything for debit. That's very important lesson from layering: only 3 out of 12 strikes are at risk of being breached. If the 3 are rolled out to many weeks, i still have 9 to make income.

6. To get extra income, I mirror this week's trades into next week. So if Mon i sell 12/22 16 delta BPS, i will also sell 12/29 16 delta BPS at the same time. Just taking advantage of the spike. Both should/will have diff strikes. Then close everything on Fri and be all-cash on the weekend, unless next week's is a loss so i will let that ride out.

7. Don't sell on Fridays, the Risk/Reward ratio is awful and gamma is at the highest at 0DTE (ie riskiest day to trade).

8. Avoid noise: FUD, China numbers, analyst ratings, AI, FSD, etc. TA lines are often reliable, but don't bet based on them. Sure, "242 is strong resistance". But i'd rather be at 262.5 (smaller income and protected by 250/260 even numbers) than at 245. Don't trust heatmaps which can be faked. I trust tall gamma walls but don't stay too close to them, just in case. Last Friday was classic example. All week long, everyone was sure about MM defending the 250 call wall and tall 250 gamma wall but both failed.

Not advice!

later i'll show some mind-boggling stats... Which Works Better? Rolling for Same Strike or Rolling for 5-Strike Improvements or Rolling for 10-Strike Improvements? How Many Weeks Before They Go OTM If I Keep On Rolling My ITM?

next week is probably 240-260/265 for now:

View attachment 1000238
View attachment 1000243

all you guys DO know this already and you are a much more educated crowd than those in Twitter... imma just preaching to the choir here

1. Don't sell options with income in mind: "I gotta make $x this week". That's how you will quickly lose money, because no one can predict where the stock will go and, meanwhile, you're betting on a fixed strike due to income desire. Rather, sell with success in mind: "Based on TA, what delta or OTM% will make me win this week?" Income will be smaller, but probability of success is very high. (Trust me on this, I have proven stats.) I personally try to not go below 1 standard deviation from previous Friday Close, no matter what TA lines say. So you left a lot of money on the table. That's still better than weekly loss or rolling for debit or rolling with no income for weeks.

2. Do not go all-in, betting the farm especially at the start of the week because of "theta harvesting." Theta is overrated. One can many times get better prems on Wed than Mon. Patience is key.

3. At the risk of stating the obvious, wait for move with momentum before selling. That's where we get the high credits. If i see a sudden vertical spike up or down, that's my cue.

4. If selling IC, don't sell both sides in one transaction. If the day reversed, one side is quickly underwater. Wider width is much, much better than more contracts with narrow width: you want the IC to mimic a Short Strangle for easier rolling. Also, cheaper if rolling for debit.

5. Layer in. This is probably my #2 most important learning from the years. (#1 is Don't Lose Capital). If you have room for 12 contracts, do only 3 a day. This averaging will smooth out the week's unrealized loss, if any. Mon down: 3 BPS. Tue up: 6 BCS. Wed up again: 3 BCS. Thur down: 6 BPS. Sell only the side that's moving until all 12 are filled. On each day's sell, watch for the new delta or OTM%. So the Wed BCS should be different strikes than the Tue BCS, because you're de-risking and not getting stuck-up only on a particular strike due to "tall call wall or put wall." That's why you see my IC with many legs. Each day's new legs are moving in the direction of the stock. My IC is growing AND following the money. If the stock moved too far by Friday, then i only need to roll Monday's 3 legs, not all 12. 9 legs are safe this week. That means 75% win rate instead of rolling everything for debit. That's very important lesson from layering: only 3 out of 12 strikes are at risk of being breached. If the 3 are rolled out to many weeks, i still have 9 to make income.

6. To get extra income, I mirror this week's trades into next week. So if Mon i sell 12/22 16 delta BPS, i will also sell 12/29 16 delta BPS at the same time. Just taking advantage of the spike. Both should/will have diff strikes. Then close everything on Fri and be all-cash on the weekend, unless next week's is a loss so i will let that ride out.

7. Don't sell on Fridays, the Risk/Reward ratio is awful and gamma is at the highest at 0DTE (ie riskiest day to trade).

8. Avoid noise: FUD, China numbers, analyst ratings, AI, FSD, etc. TA lines are often reliable, but don't bet based on them. Sure, "242 is strong resistance". But i'd rather be at 262.5 (smaller income and protected by 250/260 even numbers) than at 245. Don't trust heatmaps which can be faked. I trust tall gamma walls but don't stay too close to them, just in case. Last Friday was classic example. All week long, everyone was sure about MM defending the 250 call wall and tall 250 gamma wall but both failed.

Not advice!

later i'll show some mind-boggling stats... Which Works Better? Rolling for Same Strike or Rolling for 5-Strike Improvements or Rolling for 10-Strike Improvements? How Many Weeks Before They Go OTM If I Keep On Rolling My ITM?

next week is probably 240-260/265 for now:

View attachment 1000238
View attachment 1000243

This is golden stuff! Agree with the above, we all are coming here for Yoona’s gold!

 

[Jim Holder]

Most Q4 delivery estimates are around 475-480k... Garys own is 476K.

How does he come up with 2.4M for 2024? Where's the other 500,000 deliveries coming from? Even if we're optimistic and think 100k with be cybertrucks-- there's no semi ramp in 2024, there's no compact car in 2024... S/X sales have remained below their years-ago peaks... he thinks there's another 500k 3/Y sales above 2023 #s to be had (with no IRA credits on 2 out of 3 Model 3 trims and unclear if enough capacity and batteries to produce them?)

I think he is counting on a new assembly line(s)/expansion(s) to allow more qty. Next earning call should shed some light (although personally I hope they stop giving forward guidance).

 

[UncaNed]

(awfully nice to hear from you, even if its only 4 letters )

Last forum post that I yelled a four letter word and nothing else, I got thrown out of.

Glad Yoona is back!

 

[Jim Holder]

in response to @Jim Holder. Of course I am talking about my MA4X divergence theory. As expected divergence is set and direction is set, history repeating would imply at least 25% move up before reverting with a vengeance within 3 months (but it can be a few days as well)
First of all I stay cautious, because of the fact it can be busted this time.
I play it by the week and have set up the 3 months play, which is safe until a 3-5 %correction (=personal threshold for closing and going back to naked stocks and at 10% down personal threshold for selling stocks even (partly). I have published a lot of my moves, so you can know that I bought extra stock (partly) on margin to catch delta and maximised that by selling the 265 call for coming week. So 265 +premium -250 max Profit. Shares dropping below 250 by more than premium would be the bummer. But going where my MA4X mouth is: we will not yet correct. We all saw what happened on Friday, magma boiling, driving callwalls for last friday and next weeks higher.
My other trades were -P245 12/22 -P247.50 12/29 -P250 2024/1/16 -P241.67 2024/03/15
+C295 2024/2/16 (freebee, dinner-money, but who knows..)
further more doubled down on 2026 Jan +C510. As soon as that will have gained enough I will take it down to (1x)DITM LEAP-level.
As pointed out I will close (almost?)all of it on a 3-5% drop in a day or any heavy bearish macro-event. Because I was early on most ot the minus P I have some wiggle-room. An early crash would hurt. Once 265 is (b)reached, not so much
3% drop is threshold below 265. 4-5% if we go higher.
As you all know, I am mostly behind the homedesk so can move quickly.(mostly busy with my cinematic/photography-hobbies with one eye on SP. ) I want to make a few big hits before I return to safer weeklies, once in a while riding heavier waves and daytrading obvious moves.
Fridays I sometimes test a new approach. With Theta out of the way, getting a hunch about SP-course on the minute chart based on patterns and volume you can buy lots of options in the expected direction and make a nice amount of money in a few minutes with a low (only premium) risk. On a loss you close and try again. Mostly the other way until you go positive and then quit soon, before you go negative definitely. Don’t press it. Take the money and run. Mostly will do for a dinner or a weekend away. So your partner is happy with the trading one as well. Because: what are you doing it for exactly?
(Last Friday I did not try as nothing was very clear and the moves were too small and slow. although in the morning I nailed closing price, but later lowered it incorrectly because of volume and I did not see the 252.50 call wall was rising so fast. Should have traded that..)

Thank you. We’ll get some excitement for sure, will make up for the previous boring weeks.

Fun times ahead.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Thank you. We’ll get some excitement for sure, will make up for the previous boring weeks.

Fun times ahead.

So we aiming for the moon then plunging back to Earth. Going to sell Puts till we drop...

No matter what happen we are in for a ride or 2.

 

[john tanglewoo]

Yoona, welcome back!

 

[Knightshade]

Runrate 480+40%=632 times 4. Now you show me 1 year below 40% growth, then we talk.

You expect a 40% increase in production in Q1 of 2024?

From where?

Because otherwise those #s don't work that way.

Plus you're gonna need to find buyers for those extra vehicles. Given there's already thousands in inventory discounts at the 480k run rate that seems unlikely unless we're slashing margins again?

40% YoY growth (down from 50 I guess), every single year, forever, isn't a thing. Even Elon has pointed this out.

When they have next-gen factories starting to ramp I expect you'll see a lot more than 50% YoY. But 2024? From where? Selling to whom?

I think he is counting on a new assembly line(s)/expansion(s) to allow more qty. Next earning call should shed some light (although personally I hope they stop giving forward guidance).

Again -where?

Fremont is full AFAIK... (in fact they're going to need to lose a bit of production time in order to retool for Highland in 2024).

Austin AFAIK has no lines being added currently except the ones speculated to be for the next-gen car-- which won't be material in 2024 deliveries.

Berlin isn't even running the CURRENT lines at full capacity, just 2 shifts instead of 3, because they haven't the demand for justify the third shift.

Shanghai is cranking, but already retooled for highland and I'm unaware of any 40% capacity bump being built out there either- let alone ready for Q1. Are you?

Plus see again they'll need to find another 400k buyers for 400k more 3/Y even if they find somewhere to get the batteries and factory lines to build them.

Rates coming down might help a bit- but that's ALSO not a thing that'll be significantly happening by Q1.

IRA (and other countries) subsidies dropping out for at least some models will do the opposite of help there- and that IS happening in Q1.