You went from bearish to bullish in under 24 hours.Unexpected close there. We're sitting just under the 2 year trend line. I see quite a few Twitter accounts that focus on charts that think the stock moves to 270'ish area and then pulls back hard (along with assumption that macro's pull back hard too). Idk....if the 2 yr downtrend line gets broken and closes above, I have a hard time seeing the FOMO rally stopping at 270, even if macros pull back some.
One side note, the company I work for is still a pre-IPO company ( as practically every company that planned on IPO'ing in 2022) so I get some insight through the private brokage I use when it comes to the activity level of the private market. And so far at least, the private market has not followed the public market on the rally, even in the past few days, but definitely not over the past 1-2 months.
Now the private market will always lag the public market to some degrees since it's the riskiest of the two investment wise, but I would have expected a strong rebound in the private market off of the Fed dovish pivot. So far nothing. So I do wonder if there's one last decent size rug pull that is ahead of us that big money on the sidelines is expecting before flooding the private market with inflows.
Could be nothing and simply the lag factor for the private market hasn't kicked in soon or could be a sign of something else. Could also be near term scenario where large caps either stagnate for a couple months or sell off somewhat as investors take profits and pour them back into small cap and private investments. Will be interesting to see how TSLA gets treated in that scenario. Yes it's a big cap name....but it's also still down like 35% from its ATH
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
There has been a lot of attitude adjustment since 2pm Wednesday
funny how price sways sentiment in absence of fundamental development.There has been a lot of attitude adjustment since 2pm Wednesday
Haha that’s IF we actually break through the downtrend line and hold it for a couple of days.
If I had to lean one way or the other, I think TSLA is going to get caught up in a macro pullback after failing to break the downtrend. I still think it’s more likely we break the downtrend from the P/D numbers at the begging of Jan…all the way down at 215-220 area…..or V12 release or China FSD could come out and break the downtrend randomly.
I unfortunately think the scenario of macro stocks pulling back or stagnating while micro cap stocks run hard is the most likely scenario and that unfortunately, TSLA will be lumped into a macro stock and trade according
That's all good. I'm going to go short above 260, but that's after catching a $30 move up. $30 here, $20 there and pretty soon we're talking real money. Meanwhile, nothing has changed at Tesla or macro level.Haha that’s IF we actually break through the downtrend line and hold it for a couple of days.
If I had to lean one way or the other, I think TSLA is going to get caught up in a macro pullback after failing to break the downtrend. I still think it’s more likely we break the downtrend from the P/D numbers at the begging of Jan…all the way down at 215-220 area…..or V12 release or China FSD could come out and break the downtrend randomly.
I unfortunately think the scenario of macro stocks pulling back or stagnating while micro cap stocks run hard is the most likely scenario and that unfortunately, TSLA will be lumped into a macro stock and trade according
This last month as been unusually flat for TSLA. I think that most weeks, if you do straddles for $1 premium/side, one side will lose and need to be rolled every week. I don't know if you set stop losses how often they will get triggered. Keep us updated if you experiment....
Edit: The -p side for next week for $1 is at 237.5 strike. We were just there....
Edit 2: Maybe one way to work it is that you say your goal is $1/week. So you open the straddle with $1 premium/side. Set a stop loss of $2 on each side. If it triggers, roll that side for a $1 debit to a farther strike for the same week. So you gave up the dollar on that side. If it hits the stop loss again, roll it for another $1 debit to a farther strike same week, so you just gave up the premium from the opposite side, but maybe you can roll that side in a little to get 0.5. Hopefully this wouldn't happen to often.
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FWIW rolled all my 250 calls out a month to 290 and some cash in pocket once I realized the writing was on the wall for all my shares. 
That’s exactly why I went from a public practice making around 1-2k a day to a private practice making 8-15k a day. Couldn’t stand leaving 30k on the table by closing my short puts in AAPL because I closed too early going to work or something came up at the job and got bumped by Csections and 1 or 2 if my cases were getting cancelled in the public system and payday cut in half. At the private clinic, no emergencies, just joint replacement and ACL reconstruction.
Now that I have listened to Pierre Roberge video saying TSLA had a buy impulse, stochastic over 60, actually at 97, SP should technically go up. If Elon decides to tweet some crazy things and sell half his TSLA, it doesn’t have the same impact as it did before. So I just threw away more money with 2 new LEAPs
Just found out my friend here in Utah, that also put down a reservation the first night, just configured his Cybertruck! I'm so jealous. He is about 40,000 better than my night one reservation number.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Guys - just curious anyone here quit their job to do this full times. Or other words dont have a jobs and do selling full times?
Wondering mind was thinking how would anyone able to do jobs required full times concentration and in between bombarded with the crazy up and down this week?
Sometimes I’m hitting my head on the wall when the stock does a V and Im stuck in a meeting.
Wondering mind was thinking how would anyone able to do jobs required full times concentration and in between bombarded with the crazy up and down this week?
Sometimes I’m hitting my head on the wall when the stock does a V and Im stuck in a meeting.
I had quit for other reasons, but now have the time to day trade. But I actually did better when I was working! I had the most losses when I tried to day trade full time. So I've quit the "full-time" trading! Now I try to avoid looking at the screen between 9am-noon to force myself to make more "conservative" trades.
So from this perspective, the answer is "you don't"! Do your job, trade what you can and just make sure you have a plan B, so you don't need to care about what happens during the day. Just an opinion.
This is my income source now that I've retired. But that's misleading - better to say that this is my better-than-dividend income, using Tesla (a company that doesn't pay dividends) stock. That's the idea anyway.
I retired because I had the resources to retire without doing this. This increased my confidence in retiring early. I do this because I think I'll do somewhere between somewhat and a lot better than a typical retirement portfolio, and with lower risk. Or at least risk that is under a lot more direct and personal control.
I tried to retire in 2022, handing in my notice and started counting down the days, but work begged me to stay and then another key person left at short notice, so I felt guilty and decided to carry on. Tried again this year when my contract came up for renewal, told them that inflation made my daily rate too low expecting a "take it or leave it" response, was going to use this as the catalyst, but they gave a 10% increase instead - very annoying!
However, as I'm in Europe, US markets open 15:30 here, so it's mostly happening in the evenings and doesn't much impact normal business hours, but it is like holding down two jobs and quite exhausting at times as it makes for 14 hour days
I have set a $$$ target on my portfolio and told my wife once I hit that I plan to stop - not "retire" exactly as I will just assume trading as my full time job
I had some vacation time recently where our road trip got cancelled, I decided to keep the days off work and I found the extra badwidth that gave me to think about my trades and strategy was really helpful
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
No real time but deducting by maxpain volumes while maxpain O.I. was showing much lower levels, so that can only be forming walls. so exactly that picture that says it all.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Move to Europe and you only miss the best part, opening hours.p.s. I quit my job with just a fraction of the shares some of you got. I am not a big spender though, except for Tesla cars, Nikon, Sony and DJI gear for my hobby of making photos and videos, only for charity and family so far. Using these turbulent times to trade and diversify more. I will try to move money from topping shares to lagging but promising ones.
Tesla is lagging BTW , but near topping as well, so I bought extra shares on margin, hoping to catch delta as well as the premium on the -C265 as wel as delta on the LEAPs and -P. But I will partly de-risk around SP 265 for sure, although I still think of SP 295 being in sight, being the only one thinking so over here, based on a non proven theory. (But if it turns out to be right a fifth time, it grows stronger. )
One thing is clear, a parabolic market never ends sideways and the top is impossible to predict. A 5% drop in a day would make me cautious.
Have a nice weekend, thanks for all of your valuable input!
Job and investing, is fine.
Job and investing, and selling longer dated covered calls is fine,
Job and investing, selling covered calls and TRADING calls and puts, is NOT fine.
Ideally this needs to be done with CSP and TSLA CC's, then you could let the losing side assign/exercise and wheel it in the other direciton
Benefit of that is you're not getting issues with Delta like you do when writing against lober dated calls and puts, as I'm going
The other possibility is to stay totally in cash and write IC's, but definitely risk on those - imagine you have $2m cash, to get 1% on that for next week you'd need something like +p220/-p240/-c270/+p290 -> those short positions aren't so risky if fully covered, but with a pure spread they are IMO
What other ways to make 1%, $20k on $2m weekly?
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