Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

you will see it unfold, no not 50% growth forever, but we are in the lower part of the S-curve only. Driving a Tesla is wanting to buy one. That is the secret sauce. But let us not focus on only cars. I guess people here I do not have to explain the rest Of the promising business. Energy exploding right now promising on Teslabot, challenging next smaller EV, FSD, licensing FSD, rent out DOJO. The growth story is far from over.
p.s. Highland was only a test for how to do Juniper even better, without a dip in Production.

 

[DarkKnight83]

Rates are no coming down soon. Even if it does ecomony will be down. Rate cuts won’t help 2024 numbers.

 

[juanmedina]

You expect a 40% increase in production in Q1 of 2024?

From where?

Because otherwise those #s don't work that way.

Plus you're gonna need to find buyers for those extra vehicles. Given there's already thousands in inventory discounts at the 480k run rate that seems unlikely unless we're slashing margins again?

40% YoY growth (down from 50 I guess), every single year, forever, isn't a thing. Even Elon has pointed this out.

When they have next-gen factories starting to ramp I expect you'll see a lot more than 50% YoY. But 2024? From where? Selling to whom?




Again -where?

Fremont is full AFAIK... (in fact they're going to need to lose a bit of production time in order to retool for Highland in 2024).

Austin AFAIK has no lines being added currently except the ones speculated to be for the next-gen car-- which won't be material in 2024 deliveries.

Berlin isn't even running the CURRENT lines at full capacity, just 2 shifts instead of 3, because they haven't the demand for justify the third shift.

Shanghai is cranking, but already retooled for highland and I'm unaware of any 40% capacity bump being built out there either- let alone ready for Q1. Are you?

Plus see again they'll need to find another 400k buyers for 400k more 3/Y even if they find somewhere to get the batteries and factory lines to build them.

Rates coming down might help a bit- but that's ALSO not a thing that'll be significantly happening by Q1.

IRA (and other countries) subsidies dropping out for at least some models will do the opposite of help there- and that IS happening in Q1.

And we have this additional problem. They unions in Europe can do some damage:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736691844753346862

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

And we have this additional problem. They unions in Europe can do some damage:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1736691844753346862

I doubt it would affect anything. They don't seem to understand that Tesla management doesn't respond to threats, and they don't hold enough shares to significantly move the needle.

 

[jeewee3000]

I doubt it would affect anything. They don't seem to understand that Tesla management doesn't respond to threats, and they don't hold enough shares to significantly move the needle.

True. We're talking one day of average $TSLA volume at best, I believe. More likely much less, but the data is lacking. In other words this would not have the impact like one of Elons selling sprees.

 

[Knightshade]

you will see it unfold, no not 50% growth forever, but we are in the lower part of the S-curve only.

Tony Seba powerpoints aside, that doesn't change the physical and economic reasons hitting 2.4M in 2024 seems to be fueled by hopium instead of where will the cars come from and who will buy them at current prices.

Driving a Tesla is wanting to buy one. That is the secret sauce.

Sure. But TAM at a given price is also a thing. Elon himself has called out the issue is not a lack of people who WANT to buy one- but a lack of people who CAN.

(and that's ignoring where like 500-600k more production without any new factories, and seemingly no new lines being under construction right now)

But let us not focus on only cars. I guess people here I do not have to explain the rest Of the promising business. Energy exploding right now

Sure- but that seems like a goalpost move from discussion of vehicle deliveries?

And while its a great business growing quickly that one is much FURTHER to the left on the S-curve than auto... Last I knew the chinese megapack plant isn't scheduled to even START production until 2H2 2024? In which case it won't be material to 2024 financials, so you're left with just the one CA plant. It's not nothing but it's not 500k cars of revenue either.

promising on Teslabot

$0.00 improvement in revenue or earnings there for 2024.

, challenging next smaller EV

$0.00 impact to revenue or earnings in 2024. (arguably negative given the capex cost of development/line building/ground breaking in Mexico)

, FSD, licensing

This. Is. Not. A Thing.

Elon said they'd license superchargers too, and it took 7 years for anyone to actually take him up on it. And superchargers actually exist unlike >L2 FSD.

That said-- even if they DID magically sign a deal tomorrow, it'd require significant vehicle redesign from whatever OEM did it- so again no help for 2024.

rent out DOJO

Also not a thing in 2024.

Tesla has barely scaled any DOJO for themselves, and need tons more.

. The growth story is far from over.

Nobody suggested it was? Just that 2024 will be an unusually low year for it on the vehicle side. In fact I specifically called out I expect that growth to go back to eye watering once next-gen production starts scaling. But that's not 2024.

p.s. Highland was only a test for how to do Juniper even better, without a dip in Production.

Huh? How do you retool a manufacturing line without any dip in production at all?

 

[juanmedina]

True. We're talking one day of average $TSLA volume at best, I believe. More likely much less, but the data is lacking. In other words this would not have the impact like one of Elons selling sprees.

I am more worried about how they can affect deliveries if they union strikes keep spreading to other countries.

 

[elasalle]

sold 135, Dec 29 th 300 CCs (against Jan25+ Calls) for .41 cents .. to kick off the week.

 

[intelligator]

Considering a roll of 12/22 -c257.5 to 2/16 -c260 , $14 credit to pickup a loss I had to take to buy back a DITM BCS. It'd tie up the shares for writing CC , benefit is the restore of roughly the same loss from a gone bad BCS last month. I can manage the 2/16 up or down or buy back , whichever comes first. Anyone have a strong opinion with regards to pullback the next 60 days?

 

[thenewguy1979]

Considering a roll of 12/22 -c257.5 to 2/16 -c260 , $14 credit to pickup a loss I had to take to buy back a DITM BCS. It'd tie up the shares for writing CC , benefit is the restore of roughly the same loss. I can manage the 2/16 up or down or buy back , whichever comes first. Anyone have a strong opinion with regards to pullback the next 60 days?

Wicked and DI003 all say watchout for pullback at the 260/265 levels.

 

[dl003]

bumping up against 257 POC. If we pull back here, fine.
If we go up to 264, or gap up to 264 tomorrow, I'll short big time back to 250.

 

[Yoona]

 

[thenewguy1979]

SPY is overextended - due for a pullback anytime soon. That would perhaps coincide with Tesla dropping. If 264 and pullback would be heck of a bull trap....

 

[Yoona]

RSI Overbought

 

[tivoboy]

Selling 10x 2/23/24 -CC265 @~18. Same price as last week, but 5$ higher strike. IFWT.

update: not sure why this didn’t post ~ 30 min ago.

 

[Knightshade]

I am more worried about how they can affect deliveries if they union strikes keep spreading to other countries.

I don't think they can, at least not beyond the nordic states.... Germany for example specifically disallows sympathy strikes which is why the union there rejected calls to action.
(and AFAIK even within the other nordic states it's only deliveries going through those states to the one in question that are impacted)- so it wouldn't be nothing but it'd be very very small as a % of overall deliveries....I'd be a lot more concerned about the impact of losing the various EV subsidies (either to deliveries if nothing else changes, or to margin if Tesla adjusts pricing for this)

 

[CHGolferJim]

Selling 10x 2/23/24 -CC265 @~18. Same price as last week, but 5$ higher strike. IFWT.

update: not sure why this didn’t post ~ 30 min ago.

Wow, that’s a good premium. Thanks, I may roll 4 x 22Dec$260 to that, netting $13 in 2 months, very good.

 

[Yoona]

quick $2k to start the week, i'm out

 

[Jim Holder]

bumping up against 257 POC. If we pull back here, fine.

Sold a bunch of longs and short puts @258. How low can this retrace get do you think to get back in?

 

[BornToFly]

quick $2k to start the week, i'm out

View attachment 1000675

Does this mean that you think 280 is possible this week? Or are you hoping to do the same trade multiple times for even more premium?

I have 265CCs for Friday that I'm watching closely and trying to decide how I want to manage...