Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Yoona]

Little dog tried but margin was through the roof (3000) per Contract. But the tradeoff is much higher % OTM approaching 90+% OTM.

But it's the planning that count. I can do a $5 spread and keep the same strikes. Less winning but almost same risk level. Don't approach it from an income point of view like Yoona said - that's hard to do sometimes.....

correct, the difference between $5 spread and $30 is the speed of decay because of the long leg

ie $30 will reach 50% profit way earlier than the $5 does (more chances of 2nd round) and less chance of max loss due to higher breakeven point

 

[Yoona]

no, the sky is not falling

we are still inside 1 STDDEV from Prev Fri Close, looks like a normal week

next 2 days probability is 237-259

 

[InTheMiddle]

Just remember, FRIDAY 12/22 of all things is FED PCE day.. they’re FAVOURITE metric and IF it comes in seasonally COLD, well we could be short term off to the races again. I don’t THINK that is going to happen, I think overall Friday will be down - well we got the move I planned for Thurs/Fri TODAY.. but stay frosty (no seasonal pun intended) if you‘re trying to close out short calls.

Thanks for the reminder! All the more reason to have closed out the CCs today rather than leaving them to (presumably) expire on Friday. Flexible is hugely useful - if an opportunity arises tomorrow that is worth the PCE report uncertainty, then happy to go for a 3rd round trip this week, but doing nothing for the rest of the week is fine, too.

 

[Jim Holder]

no, the sky is not falling

we are still inside 1 STDDEV from Prev Fri Close, looks like a normal week
View attachment 1001563

next 2 days probability is 237-259

View attachment 1001564

Would you mind sharing how to evoke the probabilities screen in TOS to show the data you are showing in the 2nd screenshot (probability analysis chart)?

 

[Yoona]

Would you mind sharing how to evoke the probabilities screen in TOS to show the data you are showing in the 2nd screenshot (probability analysis chart)?

 

[Jim Holder]

View attachment 1001587

Thank you

 

[DarkKnight83]

no, the sky is not falling

we are still inside 1 STDDEV from Prev Fri Close, looks like a normal week
View attachment 1001563

next 2 days probability is 237-259

View attachment 1001564

How do you calculate STDDEV? How many days do you take?

 

[Yoona]

How do you calculate STDDEV? How many days do you take?

i wrote a script for it and use 20, but beta

Standard Deviation: How to Use it When Trading Options?

Standard deviation is a unit of measurement that quantifies certain outcomes relative to the average outcome. Learn more about how to use standard deviation when trading options from tastylive!

www.tastylive.com

 

[adiggs]

Just before I ran out the door to be running around all day, I went short TSLA for (I think) the first time ever. Shares in the 257 range - BTO Jan 4 220p.

Then I was out of touch until after market close. Imagine my surprise at learning how clever I am Who knows - maybe I'll even keep some of those unrealized gains tomorrow.

 

[jeewee3000]

In all honesty, when did P&D or earnings last spike the stock? I’ll wait…

Euhm, July and September 2023 we had decent spikes. July immediately upon P&D. September between P&D and ER. The September spike was short lived, I give you that, but it was a spike nonetheless. Which is all we need in this thread.

 

[jeewee3000]

Man, I land in Arizona, park the jet, look at my stock market app, and

I immediately start looking for articles thinking something really bad must have happened - Biden crashed his bike and Kamala is President..., Russia fired a nuke, something happened with Israel.... NOPE. Just a market wide drop because... it's Wednesday afternoon. Alrighty then.

Gut feeling tells me this will be reversed to the upside tomorrow or Friday, but who knows. Never a dull moment....

Good thing you didn't check your stock market app during the landing procedure or you might have been eeh... distracted.

 

[Priyankp]

no, the sky is not falling

we are still inside 1 STDDEV from Prev Fri Close, looks like a normal week
View attachment 1001563

next 2 days probability is 237-259

View attachment 1001564

This is very cool! Really curious to see if we fill that tiny gap right under 240.65 before we go to 260+. Look forward to seeing your gamma update and estimate here. Thanks again, as always.

 

[strago13]

I have to add that I’ve slowly been taking chips off the table in my trading account. I used to sell up to 20 puts at a time, then lowered that to 10-12, then 8 and now 5. Two thirds of the account is in TSLA stock (with c350 sold against them), one third is in cash. The rest has gone to a savings account.

Although I’m still optimistic about TSLA short term (until Q1 earnings) and also see a lot of potential success for 2025 (Megapack, Cybertruck, Model 2), I’m not feeling very good about 2024.

My main concern is the potential negative fallout from political developments (US elections, European incentive and trade policies) but also a possible stock sale by Elon to fund X. I’m not sure if the market is able to look past it towards 2025. So besides trimming my exposure I’m also going to work on my timing, to prevent me from getting stuck with a losing position for a longer period.

Im right there with you. I already have 2025 330 CC on all my shares.

 

[Yoona]

12/22 1DTE 68% Probability of Market Maker Move = 240.02-254.26 based on last night's options premiums @ 59.78% IV. Tighter guess = 242.9-251.38.

apparently, the 2pm selloff yesterday was caused by someone buying 1 million SPY puts, causing MMs to short $47B worth of shares, flooding the market

because it was 0DTE, MMs now have to buy back the shares to drop the hedge; they might use Dark Pool to keep it quiet

 

[intelligator]

Put call ratio flipped to calls, at .9152 , sizable OI at p250, p240 (nearest 24k OI), and p255 dropped, c260 (44k), c255, c262.6 (tallest 46k OI) each added. Yesterday I opened 12/29 -p232.5/+p200, seems they may be safe, will let these ride for the day, manage tomorrow or at next good blip up. GLTA!

EDIT: Had the put spread expiry dates wrong...

 

[Jim Holder]

View attachment 1001587

Got it to work, thank you!

Is there a reason it only widens as time passes to the right, is it not based on actual option positions which would be wide and narrow (up and down) depending on the month?

Edit: I think the answer is that since the mode is ITM then its only projecting based on today's share price, hence the similarities on weeks and months into the future. As SP changes, the probabilities will change to reflect the current week.

 

[tivoboy]

apparently, the 2pm selloff yesterday was caused by someone buying 1 million SPY puts, causing MMs to short $47B worth of shares, flooding the market

because it was 0DTE, MMs now have to buy back the shares to drop the hedge; they might use Dark Pool to keep it quiet

Those things are rat poison. I won’t be surprised to see a 5-7% flash crash sometime in 2024

 

[bopdit00]

12/22 1DTE 68% Probability of Market Maker Move = 240.02-254.26 based on last night's options premiums @ 59.78% IV. Tighter guess = 242.9-251.38.

View attachment 1001715
View attachment 1001716

apparently, the 2pm selloff yesterday was caused by someone buying 1 million SPY puts, causing MMs to short $47B worth of shares, flooding the market

because it was 0DTE, MMs now have to buy back the shares to drop the hedge; they might use Dark Pool to keep it quiet

Interesting SPY puts info. Thanks.

 

[Max Plaid]

Those things are rat poison. I won’t be surprised to see a 5-7% flash crash sometime in 2024

"Efficient Markets", eh?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

STO12/22 -C255 @$ 2.54