Cathie, better not trim her positions for next 2 weeks atleast
(saw a new headline saying she had recently added to her positions ...)
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
(saw a new headline saying she had recently added to her positions ...)
When i try to see your postings, it says quote "This member limits who may view their full profile." please help me to read your postings like twitter. Thanks
Nice!!pre-market guess is off by 24 cents
CENTS
today's Close=254.50
What's tomorrow's range?
251-258, but i have to download the chain later
i only block 2 idiots, you're not it; check your settings?
Fun day! Those puts I sold, somewhat hastily, yesterday are coming back to me, while the -c260's should be a few cents to close out early tomorrow
Unless we get a gap up pre-market, always a chance...
Not sure on the next move, will see in the morning
Unless we get a gap up pre-market, always a chance...
Not sure on the next move, will see in the morning
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Yep, the benefit of selling is there's multiple chances of winning, not just unidirectional. Sometimes just patience is needed.
We hitting 255 AH.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Come on - you know the rules. You got to share the numbers. Else how can we win together
+175/-205 on the BPS side. I thought I had also filled -310/+340, but apparently not. Will fill the call side tomorrow on strength.Come on - you know the rules. You got to share the numbers. Else how can we win together
Just looking for safe way to make an extra $2,000-$3,000 per weak (200-300X contracts) on top of CC premiums.
The FIRST rule of fight club.Come on - you know the rules. You got to share the numbers. Else how can we win together
Err - wait. The FIRST rule of ".. Be the House" .. is that we each make our own decisions, and experience our own consequences.
We share as much information as we like, and as little, and we each consume as much or as little as we like, put it into our own pipe, smoke it with all of our own stuff that we add, and out comes our own decisions from which we experience our own consequences.
For me personally - I don't share position sizes. Whether its 1 contract or 100, the number of $$ changes, but the rationale for the position doesn't. Whether 1 or 100 it also doesn't say anything about portfolio management, or relative size of the position to the portfolio, or how it fits into the person's tax situation, or ...
llirk
Member
P.S.A.
While we are far more educated with all of the great analysis on this thread, let's not forget what happened the last time everyone was betting heavy on spreads.
For those new to the thread, go back several hundred pages to late last year and see what being on the wrong side of a spread can do to your portfolio.
Now back to your regularly scheduled trading.
While we are far more educated with all of the great analysis on this thread, let's not forget what happened the last time everyone was betting heavy on spreads.
For those new to the thread, go back several hundred pages to late last year and see what being on the wrong side of a spread can do to your portfolio.
Now back to your regularly scheduled trading.
I like this sensible rule and will apply it as well, unless the qty is uniquely connected with the trade in some way that requires disclosing.
This is why @BornToFly writes IC's with strikes in a different post-code...
And exactly why I don't do classic spreads. I tried them when they were all the rage back in 2021, made silly profits (the old "100k club as we called it back then", but couldn't sleep at night (the "Evergrande affair" sticks in my memory...). Fortunatley I stopped a few weeks before Elon pulled the rug
Please be very, very careful, most of all, don't get drawn into the delusion that you're some kind of genius trader. There's a tendency as we do well to take on more risk over time, we get greedy, complacent, lose objectivity, then the black swan flies in and craps on our head...
@Yoona is so successful because she's put in years of analysis and back-testing, she's disciplined and stricks to the script, we can all learn from that regardless of our preferred trading mehanisms
For those that don't know, we had one TMC member took his own life as a result of the losses incurred trading TSLA
I guess that all depends on your income requirements... to match my daily rate as a freelance consultant I'd need to generate around 0,2% of my portfolio value weekly, which I think is pretty low risk, but doesn't cater for inflation. Pushing the roic to 0.3% and subtracting the weekly fixed income yields +5% on portfolio annually, pushing it to 0.4% yields +10% on porfolio, thus giving the income and beating most managed fundsYoona says not to see options trading as a way for a steady weekly income
Now I don't consider 0.4% roic much of a chellenge, that's 50c premium on each side of a short strangle every week, it's very rare these go ITM and when they do you're starting so far from the money (example: -p235 @ -c277.50 for next 12/29), that you'd normally have plenty of time to react, normally...
Even more interesting is if you don't draw the income, so say I keep the day job, then the 0.4% weekly returns +20% on portfolio
Kirk has 5 rules for success. It's all or nothing. You must follow all 5:
#1. Don't bet the farm even if you feel your trade is 100% right, because reversal is instant and you won't see the black swan coming. Remember Tuesday 2pm's SPY 1 million puts? 10-pt drop in 14 minutes while you were napping. Remember Hertz / Evergrande? You want to escape but there's no room. You can't wiggle out if you're already all-in. This is Kirk's #1 rule: don't use up all the capital you have.
To me, #2 is key. Options is a casino, which means you want to be the house and not be the gambler, which means YOU make ALL the rules, which means you set the rules in your favor, which means probability of OTM, which means respecting STDDEV / delta. Options is all about probabilities and statistics. It's a numbers game. Don't look at news, chats, feelings, sentiments, AI, FSD, CT release, etc. Look at delta. TA helps, but don't bet on it. Example is yesterday: all day long, 61% fib was safe, until it wasn't in the last hour. Can you imagine making at bet at 3pm based on the fib because all the candles said it's good bet?
So if we can't trust TA, who can we trust? TA is only a helper that looks at the past. Stock heat maps can be faked. Dark pool can be faked. We can only hope for the next best thing: the chain. This is Kirk's rule #2. If you want to be successful, you have to look at HIGH probabilities. Those are his exact words: "with a high probability of success". Don't even trust OI / Volume. How do i know? Last Friday highest enormous tall call wall was 250 ALL WEEK LONG, yet we closed 253.50. So, near-the-money bets would be extremely risky since delta is high.
#3 is TSLA, clearly.
#4 is not rocket science. You can't sell a covered call at MMD. A small change in volatility changes premium and you're instantly at unrealized loss right out of the gate. All because you were not patient.
#5 means you need churn / volume (ie round 2 same day, etc.) This is why i do IC laddering. Why sell IC once a week if i can sell once a day, moving my new strikes up/down to where the stock price is?
He explains it better:
Generate Consistent Income Trading Options | Option Alpha
Learn how to generate consistent income trading options with Option Alpha's guided video lesson.
optionalpha.com
Super post Yoona and if you've the possibility to follow closely and likely the tools to track things well and trade efficiently then it's a great tactic, I have less time, a brokerage with very basic possibilities, STO/BTW/BTO/STC, that's it and not at all possible to exercise earlyKirk has 5 rules for success. It's all or nothing. You must follow all 5:
View attachment 1002037
#1. Don't bet the farm even if you feel your trade is 100% right, because reversal is instant and you won't see the black swan coming. Remember Tuesday 2pm's SPY 1 million puts? 10-pt drop in 14 minutes while you were napping. Remember Hertz / Evergrande? You want to escape but there's no room. You can't wiggle out if you're already all-in. This is Kirk's #1 rule: don't use up all the capital you have.
To me, #2 is key. Options is a casino, which means you want to be the house and not be the gambler, which means YOU make ALL the rules, which means you set the rules in your favor, which means probability of OTM, which means respecting STDDEV / delta. Options is all about probabilities and statistics. It's a numbers game. Don't look at news, chats, feelings, sentiments, AI, FSD, CT release, etc. Look at delta. TA helps, but don't bet on it. Example is yesterday: all day long, 61% fib was safe, until it wasn't in the last hour. Can you imagine making at bet at 3pm based on the fib because all the candles said it's good bet?
View attachment 1002039
So if we can't trust TA, who can we trust? TA is only a helper that looks at the past. Stock heat maps can be faked. Dark pool can be faked. We can only hope for the next best thing: the chain. This is Kirk's rule #2. If you want to be successful, you have to look at HIGH probabilities. Those are his exact words: "with a high probability of success". Don't even trust OI / Volume. How do i know? Last Friday highest enormous tall call wall was 250 ALL WEEK LONG, yet we closed 253.50. So, near-the-money bets would be extremely risky since delta is high.
View attachment 1002044
#3 is TSLA, clearly.
#4 is not rocket science. You can't sell a covered call at MMD. A small change in volatility changes premium and you're instantly at unrealized loss right out of the gate. All because you were not patient.
#5 means you need churn / volume (ie round 2 same day, etc.) This is why i do IC laddering. Why sell IC once a week if i can sell once a day, moving my new strikes up/down to where the stock price is?
View attachment 1002049
He explains it better:
Generate Consistent Income Trading Options | Option Alpha
Learn how to generate consistent income trading options with Option Alpha's guided video lesson.
First issue is that I still have the day job, and three kids, three dogs and the wife, so keeping all the plates spinning is a challenge
On top of that I have positions that I want to sell out of - March +c280's, Dec 2025 +c200's (that I paid too much for and want to reduce the capital risk), plus I have LEAP +p's, LEAP -p's, all setup to generate profits later this year
Plus I want to 2x my portfolio, but don't actually need income out of it until I "retire"
So although I see that trading frequent, small IC's is absolutely a great approach, I need first to position more into cash and offload soe stuff. Ergo my personal strategy to go aggressive, on Jan 29th -270 ration straddles - this will net around $300k in premium, if the SP <270 then I let 10x of the puts assign for 1000x shares, then roll the rest out a month, or possibly 60x of them to September if it's ATM, that's where I have -p300's (that I will then roll down to -p270 to form a short LEAP straddle), that's a hyper-theta play for September, with all the positions covered by December long positions
And with all that, I only have 40% of portfolio in cash. So not enough to trade the volumes of IC's I would need
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