Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

This count was wrong. An extended wave 1 is now the count. As there is no more room to drop for this leg, I bought some 260C exp tomorrow. If TSLA trades below 256 I will get out as it'll be something else entirely different.
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I am totally with you (and still with my MA4x +25% run from SP$236-ish[edit] within three months, from which 2 and a bit are left [/edit]), took the 50%profit on - C265 via BTC C265 for $0.50 an went –P255 tomorrow for $1.716. Just bought C262.5 for tomorrow for $0.804 to sell above 50% profit. Close to the sun, but behind the desk again after our trip, to manage risks closely. Still got the -P247.50 for next week (besides all the -c277.50 and above for tomorrow certainly expiring worthless, but if not, all of them are covered by the foresaid +C262.5 ) At the moment we are down so I am for now loosing on opened positions. I don't see why $TSLA drops, so there must be a ledge somewhere to be catching , considering macro development throughout the day. (or is our naughty boy selling again?)

 

[dl003]

That's all good. I'm going to go short above 260, but that's after catching a $30 move up. $30 here, $20 there and pretty soon we're talking real money. Meanwhile, nothing has changed at Tesla or macro level.

Already $8 deep into the 2nd trip. Who care about P&D or FSD lol.

 

[EVNow]

News on X about Tesla getting closer to factory in India (Bullish). Also have record P&D on Tuesday. Yet TSLA Red today and NIO and RIVN Green. Oh well. Probably TSLA green tomorrow.

Wait ... what has RIVN and NIO got to do with expectation of TSLA ?

General comment - nothing specific about you : I see people cribbing about how TSLA is down when Ford is up on a given day ... TSLA has a very high market cap, PE ratio and expectations of 50% growth. SP will react to news based on that. Its not useful to compare TSLA to other companies which have low market cap or low PE. I continue to be bearish on TSLA in 2024 ... for the simple reason I don't see big growth in 2024. CT is going to take a long time to ramp up, it seems. India factory will take forever to be profitable - and TSLA will be beholden to one more fascist leader.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Picked up some extra shares below 256 as well profiting from this low point, maybe a higher bottom in the run up to 295-340! (Yeah still believe in that. Only crossing 240 downward wil officially send my theory to a place where it will be dark and quiet forever, for both outcomes we still have 2.5 months.)

 

[Yoona]

move along, nothing to see here

we're still within 1σ from Prev Fri Close where price will move 68% of the time

i would panic if we move 2σ, but this looks normal to me, just another day in the life of TSLA (we are on Tuesday's range)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Yeah I guess we could get a second (higher) Doji on the weekly, showing the market still has not decided yet and really is waiting for P&D to get a directive.

 

[Yoona]

we got rejected by the Order Block above

there are 3 Order Block supports below to 240

 

[ninpb]

Missed chance to close -255P this morning for 30c. Was waiting for 20c.
This was unlike me this past few months. Closing early often and leaving a lot of profit on the table. Last chance to make my 2023 books look better I guess.

 

[adiggs]

Being that we didn't break 260 today, I am going to leave -c275 and -c277.5 , 25 wide BCS to expire. I could snag them high 80's % but it seems unlikely these will be at risk. Also expiring Friday are -p232.5/+p200 that I opened last week. Feels good , anticipating , to close out the year on a positive note. I did make adjustments; flying further from the sun, scaling in mid-week, rinse and repeat when possible. Thanks all for your shared insights and commentaries, couldn't have done any of this without those inputs.

not-advice.
Those c275 and c277.5. One way I think about positions like those is how much more do I have to gain? Not just in % terms, but also absolute $$ terms. Then the followup question - is that enough money to risk a significant reversal in the time remaining? If you had the same situation every week for a year (50 times) and one of them went bad on you, was the incremental earnings from letting the last bit tick away worth the stress and/or loss in that 1 week where it went bad? That's still 98% win rate, but we're also using positions with defined gains and undefined losses. I find that quite often the amount of money isn't worth the wait. The early close also frees up the backing resources to get a new position started.

I don't know what the right decision looks like to you - just another way to think about these that has proven valuable to me.

 

[jeewee3000]

Rolled my 12/29 -c260's to 01/05 -c260's for $4.5 credit per contract. (at open)

260 might be safe tomorrow but I don't want to have to check the SP like a hawk today and tomorrow.

Positions for next week: (besides shares of course)
-c260's
-c250's

Closed these since I have +25% profit in such a short time.

Might open another position tomorrow to play P&D IV crush.

 

[thenewguy1979]

@DI003 - has anything changed on the TA side? Seem we touched below 255.
Thanks

 

[tivoboy]

Nothing like low volume days to let MM move the stock around 4% in a day, to get closer to MP for the week..

I’m ok with it, but it’s just so funny and predictable.

 

[intelligator]

not-advice.
Those c275 and c277.5. One way I think about positions like those is how much more do I have to gain? Not just in % terms, but also absolute $$ terms. Then the followup question - is that enough money to risk a significant reversal in the time remaining? If you had the same situation every week for a year (50 times) and one of them went bad on you, was the incremental earnings from letting the last bit tick away worth the stress and/or loss in that 1 week where it went bad? That's still 98% win rate, but we're also using positions with defined gains and undefined losses. I find that quite often the amount of money isn't worth the wait. The early close also frees up the backing resources to get a new position started.

I don't know what the right decision looks like to you - just another way to think about these that has proven valuable to me.

So true, I do look at this the same and the day ain't over ... A strong reversal would be problematic , the giving up 10% is hardly worth holding.

 

[dl003]

@DI003 - has anything changed on the TA side? Seem we touched below 255.
Thanks

Still going down to 247 that hasn't changed. The path it takes is changing. Might just go down in 1 go.

 

[adiggs]

Wait ... what has RIVN and NIO got to do with expectation of TSLA ?

General comment - nothing specific about you : I see people cribbing about how TSLA is down when Ford is up on a given day ... TSLA has a very high market cap, PE ratio and expectations of 50% growth. SP will react to news based on that. Its not useful to compare TSLA to other companies which have low market cap or low PE. I continue to be bearish on TSLA in 2024 ... for the simple reason I don't see big growth in 2024. CT is going to take a long time to ramp up, it seems. India factory will take forever to be profitable - and TSLA will be beholden to one more fascist leader.

I have a suggestion for thread participants. I noticed a Disagree on @EVNow 's post and I realize that in this context it is ambiguous, at least to me. Is it:
a) A straightforward disagree in that the bearish view articulated here is not one that is shared? I guess I would say this is the "I see what you're saying, and how you arrive at that conclusion based on what you're thinking. I just don't agree with the thinking".

b) Something about the thinking or more .. I don't know. It's not just a disagreement over point of view, or a disagreement over what factors are being emphasized. Something like "Your conclusion doesn't follow from your starting point, and that's just all kinds of wrong".


My first suggestion is that for situation A - where the conclusion drawn, or the material emphasized, etc.. is simply different than one's own view, then an Informative is warranted. Informative doesn't mean that one agrees or disagrees with the information, conclusion, or sentiment. Only that the information has been consumed, entered the brain, and gone into the personal soup from which personal decisions are drawn. The disagreement may actually reinforce one's already held believes / expectations!

For situation B, then a reply with the details and nuances about the disagreement is important. For these I like to articulate the points of agreement as well as the disagreement.

For situation A, a reply talking about one's differences in point of view is valuable, but not really essential.


At least for me, the value in the thread isn't the number of reactions I get on my posts. I suppose that's nice but it doesn't do anything for my money making decision making. But a response that talks about other factors that you think are being ignored or aren't getting enough weight in this point of view, and the conclusions (and actions when appropriate) being taken in response - that is highly valuable stuff to me.

It still doesn't mean that I agree or disagree with either point of view. Both are Informative to me though and consciously or unconsciously inform my personal decision making.

 

[EVNow]

Those c275 and c277.5. One way I think about positions like those is how much more do I have to gain? Not just in % terms, but also absolute $$ terms. Then the followup question - is that enough money to risk a significant reversal in the time remaining? If you had the same situation every week for a year (50 times) and one of them went bad on you, was the incremental earnings from letting the last bit tick away worth the stress and/or loss in that 1 week where it went bad? That's still 98% win rate, but we're also using positions with defined gains and undefined losses. I find that quite often the amount of money isn't worth the wait. The early close also frees up the backing resources to get a new position started.

The problem is - this is true for every trade - whether 2 days left or 7 days, 10% OTM or at ITM.

My 265 CC is at 30 cents now. Sold for $1. So, about 70% profit (kind of strange way to calculate, IMO). But delta is at 0.08 - so 8% chance of going ITM. About the same as when I sold. So, if the sale was a good decision, not buying back is a good decision as well ?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Whatever may happen. Where we left my green downward channel I reminded y'all that if hit again to test and taking off would be a strong bullish move.
Now that we clearly have seen that (dark blue ellipse), the same has to occur crossing the downward purple Line (mother of all wedges!!!) upward. So cross that fiercely. Touching it downward 1 or 2 times on the daily and then take off, to never touch again so if that would be next week after P&D or after ER it would be something like 275-->266 (with maybe some extra hiccups from here)-->295-->273 --->340 --->300-->ATH. I hope there is some EW for that @dl003 ?
(PS what happens today on low volume is strange and of non importance, yet engulfing bearish. I guess someone will take a profit scaring out retailers that are the only ones left behind their desks in their basements)

[edit] sorry for the not so perfect red rising channel, it should be less concave upward [/edit]

 

[mickificki]

Decided to close my purchased puts and 270/300 call spread expiring tomorrow. I am still biased down, which means i am walking away from a significant gain if i am right about down from here.

BUT when i woke up this morning the stomach acid was churning about being wrong and watching the share price go up today and/or tomorrow. In similar positions in the past I decided to wait it out, give it a few days, and see what evolves. Those mostly proved to be a bad choice . The positions were minorly profitable which probably made it easier to just get back out of those.

I'll be looking to re-enter soon, but at the moment I'm counting my 3 digit loot and feeling the stomach acid retreat. Even though the share price has continued down from when I closed, still happier.

Decided to buy puts yesterday after reading your post from yesterday (thank you for that....made a lot of sense, thinking that Q4 numbers won't be a blowout like a lot of retail tsla holders believe)...

19 JAN 24 245 PUT
19 JAN 24 242.5 PUT

Like you, planned on exiting next week but decided to take profits, ~30% on each. Would be up more had I held but, oh well...I've been burned too many times holding too long.

 

[adiggs]

The problem is - this is true for every trade - whether 2 days left or 7 days, 10% OTM or at ITM.

My 265 CC is at 30 cents now. Sold for $1. So, about 70% profit (kind of strange way to calculate, IMO). But delta is at 0.08 - so 8% chance of going ITM. About the same as when I sold. So, if the sale was a good decision, not buying back is a good decision as well ?

Another question that I ponder in this situation, very similar to the one you just articulated, is whether this is a position I would open right now? If yes then its easy - keep waiting. "No" isn't an automatic close - if the thesis for entering the trade in the first place is still valid, then that's a good reason for letting it ride.

The specific example you've got there - these days .30 is frequently what I'm starting positions for. So looking to earn that last .30 is probably well worth my time and that risk.


Not trying to argue you (or anybody else) into or out of a decision. Just a way of thinking about things. Another reference to your example - that's a big part of why I also look at the absolute $, not just the %. At some point my time is worth more than the the possible gain from leaving a position open, whatever the % gain it represents. Plenty of positions with a final $50 or $100 left to earn - I usually don't want those occupying space in my brain at all!

The larger point of view here is that I'm not just looking to win a particular trade. I'm looking to win while trading in a fashion / using a process that I can imagine myself sustaining for years to come. This point of view is why I don't have a trading desk setup at home, and why I don't have the ticker running or spending the trading day studying the price action and doing day trades. Those are all things that I COULD do. That is also a process that I know myself well enough to know that even if I were making $1M/year doing that (having made ~$200k/yr towards the end of my working life), then I still wouldn't be able to sustain it.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Still going down to 247 that hasn't changed. The path it takes is changing. Might just go down in 1 go.

Tomorrow you mean? I don't hope so, you can guess why.. Did not see that coming and would have to roll a lot and see these C262.50 expire worthless.. mmm.
would be the second knife I catched in an month..