Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

So now that we’re at $218 it’s apparent in hindsight I should have respected the original $228 SL level. Oh well. I already missed cutting my longs on the drop from $265-$228, what’s another $10 .

TSLA closing the week below $223 isn’t helpful, allowing for low $180's area to come in 3-5 weeks, especially if the rest of equities correct during this time.

I wonder if we’ll first get a bounce to $230-240 and only then head further down to hit $180. All timed to head into ER and fall after.

The next level to watch this week may be $216 for a light support to round back up. Absent that may have to look out below.

I’m still positioned more bullish than bearish (more -P and +C LEAPs than short calls) in case this is the local bottom, but will play a further drop more assertively if we get one.

Time for me to learn newer moves than I’m used to in chop weeks and not be so timid to short my own longs on these drops.

 

[DarkKnight83]

Is there a way to get historical data on options greeks?

 

[intelligator]

Are you able to roll under those spreads if they ITM or ATM?

Trying to find rollable middle ground without incurring too much equities/margin. 30 wide is rollable at least once but does requires very high margin due to max loss.

Yep, gonna need margin or some strong coin.
Was gonna comment similar, had -220p/+200p 1/12 , closed them out because I wasn't comfortable rolling to 1/19 same strike or $5 strike improvement for a steep debit that wouldn't necessarily keep me out of trouble . I'll look to sell 30 or 40 wide Tuesday, try to recoup some of that loss, maybe 210 or 205, into strength. -215p/+175p already there , I feel those will be more manageable than the 20 wide was while ITM.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Yep, gonna need margin or some strong coin.
Was gonna comment similar, had -220p/+200p 1/12 , closed them out because I wasn't comfortable rolling to 1/19 same strike or $5 strike improvement for a steep debit that wouldn't necessarily keep me out of trouble . I'll look to sell 30 or 40 wide Tuesday, try to recoup some of that loss, maybe 210 or 205, into strength. -215p/+175p already there , I feel those will be more manageable than the 20 wide was while ITM.

Yes some big coins needed for those extra wide leg, especially if the delta are extremely low. Below are 0.5 delta

30 wide

15 wide

05 wide

On the option alpha training there was mentioned on a 4 legged ICs, instead of rolling out perhaps rolling in the winning legs to offset and center the overall position. That's is more on a multiweek play. But something to try and see.

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746356897815421025

 

[DaBooster]

Interesting stats of TSLA’s recent moves post earnings:

View attachment 1008353
(Credit: Prof)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746356897815421025

Hope the incentive is to get it to a $5T company, Elon gets paid big & shareholders get paid too at $5T valuation

 

[DarkKnight83]

Hope the incentive is to get it to a $5T company, Elon gets paid big & shareholders get paid too at $5T valuation

This time sell when TSLA hits $5T and now wait until Elon sells to bring the valuation to $500B again.

 

[Jim Holder]

@Yoona can you share an example of one of your recent IC’s to understand the structure you use when you build them. If the range is say, $195-$260 what would the legs look like?

This is a default setting offered for IC:

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona can you share an example of one of your recent IC’s to understand the structure you use when you build them. If the range is say, $195-$260 what would the legs look like?

This is a default setting offered for IC:

View attachment 1008705

View attachment 1008707

i would do 30-wide, -p195/+p165/-c260/+c290

possibly 40-wide starting next week

 

[Jim Holder]

i would do 30-wide, -p195/+p165/-c260/+c290

possibly 40-wide starting next week

Thank you

 

[thenewguy1979]

This is what it would look like with 100 contract

 

[Yoona]

SP is controlled until LEAPS expiry in the 3rd week of Jan. Then, it's allowed to move.

certainly true last yr

 

[Musskiah]

certainly true last yr
View attachment 1008723

Look at the 3 weeks leading up to expiry vs the 3 weeks after. Can you graph that?

 

[Arul]

certainly true last yr
View attachment 1008723

Fourth week of january the SP will be Higher than$218, may be $240 ?

 

[Musskiah]

Fourth week of january the SP will be Higher than$218, may be $240 ?

Max Pain says you are right on the button $240 Jan 26.

 

[Musskiah]

perhaps we found bottom

View attachment 1008341
View attachment 1008342

From the TA Discussion Board...

Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler - this morning:

• TSLA—Indicated higher this AM: Shares have reversed a declining price channel/surpassed resistance near $218• Recent bullish crossover between the 10-/30-week WMAs.• RS has climbed into positive territory and notable TechniGrade ranking.• Use the current pullback as a buying opportunity.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yoona, I borrowed your chart and drew a few lines (sorry for the low quality, I don't have any suitable software) because I saw an uncanny resemblance between the two stock patterns, albeit at a different scale: descending lows and highs, with three tops, as highlighted with the orange lines. Even the chart development preceding these two patterns looks eerily similar but also at a different scale, as highlighted with the green circles.

I hope we do not get a repeat of the rest of the first pattern. I know history doesn't usually repeat itself, but I want to be prepared in case it does, more than I am now.

since 2020, the maximum consecutive red weeks is 4, even during EM's selling

4 red weeks = 3x
3 red weeks = 12x

View attachment 1008508

 

[DaBooster]

This is what it would look like with 100 contract

View attachment 1008721

Probability of a win is greater, Yoona preaches the win probability over the dollar amount if i'm not misunderstanding

 

[Yoona]

Probability of a win is greater, Yoona preaches the win probability over the dollar amount if i'm not misunderstanding

"we'd rather you have more successful wins vs. losses and so you develop a culture of winning"

imagine you're a first-time gambler going to Vegas and you got excited with all the flashing lights and sounds

you have 2 hours to kill

do you

• bet everything and hope to make at least 50% of your gambling money? (50 delta), you could lose everything on the 1st minute
• make small high-probability bets and come home a winner and have something to show after the party? (10 delta), you could be playing all night

 

[Knightshade]

My last trip to Vegas with friends a newbie to the town with us was sure he was coming having "figured out a system"

It was basically just the same nonsensical martingale system folks have been going broke with for centuries, that he "figured out"

Rather than try and show him the math, which I knew he'd ignore, I showed him the strip... and said "See all those glittering multi-billion dollar casinos? They were all built with the losses of all the people who came here before you sure they 'figured out a system'"

I mean.... he STILL didn't listen... and went broke... but that's why the be the house bit is in the thread title