Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SpeedyEddy]

In my head there is a crazy idea, burning.
To sell @SP 210 something like -C205 and -P215 for next week, because it will be volatile I think. So when significantly UP close -P and when down close -C. Only a unidirectional run will scalp me, instead of me scalping premium....
[Edit] already have put it in play for tomorrow with -P210 and -C210, will scalp on any >1 dollar gain [/edit}

No one gained a dollar, so I have them overnight as well and let theta do a bit of the work.
As I made a mistake in configuring , I sold the puts too late (while SP going up, so Delta on -C took more than Delta on -P)
Tomorrow the -P will be on a dollar profit a the next leg down the -C should be too. Still not sure on the crazy idea for next week yet. Could become very painful when going one way only, which is a risk in the ER week. Sure will day trade in (your) morning. Good night to you (it is 22 pm over here)

 

[Max Plaid]

No one gained a dollar, so I have them overnight as well and let theta do a bit of the work.
As I made a mistake in configuring , I sold the puts too late (while SP going up, so Delta on -C took more than Delta on -P)
Tomorrow the -P will be on a dollar profit a the next leg down the -C should be too. Still not sure on the crazy idea for next week yet. Could become very painful when going one way only, which is a risk in the ER week. Sure will day trade in (your) morning. Good night to you (it is 22 pm over here)

And inverse strange, can be very profitable in volatile times, but you need to keep your eye on them

Yeah, 22:00 for me too, but the benefit of being in Europe is that we have all day to catch up on the news, watch the pre-market etc., before it all kicks-off. Plus for those that still have a day-job, most of main market is after normal working hours...

 

[Max Plaid]

Zoom out on the Max Pain graph to see crazy things...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Zoom out on the Max Pain graph to see crazy things...

View attachment 1010188

Somebody always knows something…

 

[tivoboy]

Zoom out on the Max Pain graph to see crazy things...

View attachment 1010188

I’m sure all of these were sold a LONG time ago..like the 32K contracts at $666, would have been just a 55% upside to the ATH. Look at all those contacts between $375 and 666 with at least 25K contracts at them and then everything in between. Lots and lots of pennies, make lots and lots of BILLIONS of $$ of SOLD contracts.

This stock clears more in sold and expired or closed out contracts EVERY QUARTER than nearly half it’s entire market cap. Certainly semi annually. “let that sink in”

M.E. might as well have named the company Guttenberg.

 

[Yoona]

1/19 options market predicting 205-230ish

nobody panic, isn't options casino all about probabilities?

we are still within 1σ from last week (68% chance it will happen) and still within 16 delta from last week (68% chance it will happen)

the chain last Friday did say "205-230ish"

today's Low = 38% fib

 

[thenewguy1979]

Last recent time we had such low RSI was back in October. Took about 2 weeks before we bounce.

 

[Yoona]

next week 1/26 200 gamma didn't grow from today's opening (same -gex 10m), but 225 increased 9x

translation: 225 is 2x bigger magnet than 200 if we move up

max pain 230

this morning 9:35am:

right now AH:

MMs have $14M worth of 225 premiums to defend next week

 

[Arul]

I think pop or drop after earnings will come down to 2024 guidance, if it's low, or avoided altogether, will become nasty, IMO

But can also be that this week is all about OPEX and it recovers, which is why I decided to close out the -c220's today, no point in taking undue risks on those as I've already taken crazy profits on OTM calls this year

Have now realised +$270k YTD, but do have 100x -c300 burner calls expiring worthless tomorrow, that's -$31k, and I don't expect the 20x -p240's to go profitable, although they will break-even at $226

And despite these crazy gains, portfolio is down 20% YTD

What is burner calls ?

 

[DaBooster]

What is burner calls ?

call options that are or will be worthless

 

[Yoona]

earnings: what to expect next week?

last 3 quarters=red

my plan next week (earnings) is to watch the game from the sidelines, let the starters play and us benchwarmers will play cards... even my wide 6-delta IC won't survive these ranges (avoid black swan risk)

TSLA Earnings Week - How Far is Previous Friday Close to Friday Close (7DTE)?

TSLA Earnings Week - How Far is Monday Open to Friday Close (4DTE)?

 

[Jim Holder]

Seemingly bullish trade:

5,1028x +C215 2/16/24 @$10.24 ($5.3M)

 

[Yoona]

Seemingly bullish trade:

View attachment 1010273

there's a threat of <200 on 2/16

 

[Jim Holder]

there's a threat of <200 on 2/16
View attachment 1010274

Maybe:

1)They plan to close it before on any pop and just bought extra time for good practice and in case of some EC surprise.

2) It’s a sold call

3) They are willing to take that risk

 

[Yoona]

SPY has a massive 0dte put differential expiring tomorrow, this MAY help TSLA be green (market dealers are incentivized to prop up the market)

https://x.com/lastadam/status/1654495503709532163?s=20

 

[tivoboy]

earnings: what to expect next week?

last 3 quarters=red

my plan next week (earnings) is to watch the game from the sidelines, let the starters play and us benchwarmers will play cards... even my wide 6-delta IC won't survive these ranges (avoid black swan risk)

TSLA Earnings Week - How Far is Previous Friday Close to Friday Close (7DTE)?
View attachment 1010269

TSLA Earnings Week - How Far is Monday Open to Friday Close (4DTE)?
View attachment 1010270

Rule #7. Pick your battles don’t try and fight in every one. It’s a long game.

 

[BornToFly]

earnings: what to expect next week?

last 3 quarters=red

my plan next week (earnings) is to watch the game from the sidelines, let the starters play and us benchwarmers will play cards... even my wide 6-delta IC won't survive these ranges (avoid black swan risk)

TSLA Earnings Week - How Far is Previous Friday Close to Friday Close (7DTE)?
View attachment 1010269

TSLA Earnings Week - How Far is Monday Open to Friday Close (4DTE)?
View attachment 1010270

I don't usually buy calls, but maybe I'll look at pricing and see if there is cheap OTM call in case of 20+% upside move.....

 

[thenewguy1979]

My plan is to by OTM call since they’re cheap now. Maybe 245 riding the mid 250 pump if ER good.

If and when there is a pump before ER buy OTM put maybe at 195.

Form a straddle. If there is a 20% movement that should equal profit. If it just flat then that another story…..

Expired 2 weeks out from earning.

Or as Tivoboy said - choose your battle - dont play earning week at all.

 

[Jim Holder]

I don't usually buy calls, but maybe I'll look at pricing and see if there is cheap OTM call in case of 20+% upside move.....

Nice to hear at least somebody thinking positive!

 

[Max Plaid]

What is burner calls ?

Calls bought for sole purpose of writing against and allowing to expire - in this case they were just used to facilitate rolling

It's a bit like buying a pile of +p150's to keep your margin under control, they don't cost much, you know they're going to expose worthless, but they serve a purpose