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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Like I said, I don't like to buy any put down here because I already bought them on Friday. I guess you can try some -200C +180P collars.
Definitely feels like this is a proactive move to protect max pain for Friday which currently at 195. Stock was trading way to close to that at open in the event the CPI number does come in ice cold.
I would love for this general scenario to play out. Another chance to sell some CC's for a decent premium with the stock getting back into the mid 200's range and then setting a new low or at least re-testing the 180 low we just set all the way in Oct/Nov. Would allow me to close out a large number of my current CC's for pennies on the dollar and I would be a great cash position by then to materially increase my share count.
But in reality, this prediction (especially his prediction of going lower than the Jan 2023 low) just seems like wishful thinking. By Oct/Nov, Fed rates will likely be down a full point which means all stocks will get PE multiple expansion verses today. If there is any recession, it will have been over by then, and Tesla as a business will be sitting on anywhere from 32-34 billion in cash. From a valuation point of view, TSLA in theory would be much cheaper in valuation at the same Jan 2023 low considering their higher cash balance. And we would be 3 quarters closer to Model 2 reveal, Lathrop full ramp, Shanghai Megapack ramp, 3 more quarters of FSD progress.
Just really hard to see that scenario happening unless demands for 3/Y really collapses over the next 3 quarters or if Cybertruck ramp is just a disaster. If we do see lower lows than 180, I think it has to happen in Q1, maybe early Q2, before ice cold inflation readings start to come in that forces the Fed's hand.
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STO 50x 3/1 -c210 @$4.3 -> BTC @$3.2 (+$1.1)
BTC 50x 2/16 -c200 @$0.79 (+$1.02)
Earlier also STO 50x3/1 -p185 @$4.3 -> this while trading $191, just before it dumped
BTC 50x 2/16 -c200 @$0.79 (+$1.02)
Earlier also STO 50x3/1 -p185 @$4.3 -> this while trading $191, just before it dumped
NVDA $600p for next week paying $5+.. too risky? Is owning NVDA at $600 for a long hold a bad idea? I need to start looking at some models.
Timing, conviction, magic 8 ball?
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I dont play NVDA earning week too risky.
IMO - wait until after earning and get in. Never to late to ride the wave up or down afterwards. A lot safer. With IV so high it goes flat and those Puts are gone.
But let hear if someone else have any other comments.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
SPY up, risk on, BTC up, TSLA no workie play play.What does the Magic 8 ball said about TSLA and SPY this week
Most of the mkt is WAY overbought, RSI 80+, I’m taking profits and selling more calls. TSLA oversold, but at some point it’ll just be called sold. I’m still interested but the money for the past two weeks to be made is elsewhere until TSLA finds its bottom and I don’t really think it was at $175-180. I’m still holding the 1000 position which was to be ~ 15% of the overall position size, but I’m not going to continue to build it till we get ~ 15% lower and will continue to try and sell 5-10% OTM calls 2-4 weeks out for more premium. Missed my sale by ~ 25 cents.
Read his additional replies. I guess I need to clarify that he expects TSLA to below the Jan 2023 low sometime in 2025. But it doesn't change what I was getting at. In fact it reinforces what I was trying to get at. For his prediction(s) to come to fruition, Tesla's business would have to materially degrade if not completely collapse and I don't see that happening.
Coul you please tel what is the best OTM %percentage to do a CC on Tsla ? just like 14% , 15 %.
All of what Cycle Fan said is simply guesswork. Why?
Because he bases his projection on the 2022 decline. However, in wave theory, the first part of the decline that ended in June 2022 could have been a complete sequence, just like 175 may have marked the end of one. Not saying it will produce a 2nd part like 2022 did or not, but I'm not gonna fix my vision on it. Even in 2022, the severity of the 2nd leg was grossly exacerbated by Elon selling.
It was 2 ABC sequences pieced together but any one of these could have been a complete correction. This is called a double 3 correction, complex in nature. However, don't have to expect a correction to be complex until it reveals itself to be complex. In CF's model, we're at the bottom of the first ABC and he thinks there will be a 2nd one. I'm not buying it yet.
Nearly 3 months ago, I already knew something like this would happen if we are rejected at 260. Fear is already here and the sky is already falling again. People are so predictable.
Now dont get me wrong. If earning disappoints AGAIN, then by all mean be bearish, but not before then.
Because he bases his projection on the 2022 decline. However, in wave theory, the first part of the decline that ended in June 2022 could have been a complete sequence, just like 175 may have marked the end of one. Not saying it will produce a 2nd part like 2022 did or not, but I'm not gonna fix my vision on it. Even in 2022, the severity of the 2nd leg was grossly exacerbated by Elon selling.
It was 2 ABC sequences pieced together but any one of these could have been a complete correction. This is called a double 3 correction, complex in nature. However, don't have to expect a correction to be complex until it reveals itself to be complex. In CF's model, we're at the bottom of the first ABC and he thinks there will be a 2nd one. I'm not buying it yet.
Nearly 3 months ago, I already knew something like this would happen if we are rejected at 260. Fear is already here and the sky is already falling again. People are so predictable.
Now dont get me wrong. If earning disappoints AGAIN, then by all mean be bearish, but not before then.
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