Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

@Yoona still think we get the SPY dump this week to at least 500?

 

[SAPharmD]

View attachment 1022558

What does that imply? That these people are betting on/assuming the share price to be < $150 by 12/20/24?

 

[Yoona]

@Yoona still think we get the SPY dump this week to at least 500?

SPY red 2 days + today

NVDA was the last catalyst and it's all macros from hereon

 

[Jim Holder]

What does that imply? That these people are betting on/assuming the share price to be < $150 by 12/20/24?

It seems so BUT we never really know the full plan of the trade, for all we know they will be out after a $5 dollar retrace down, or it’s some hedge, etc. I find those hard to read and take successful trades off of.

 

[thenewguy1979]

EV still getting some love today but it's slowing down.....

4hrs candles. Seem we didn't get the 2 catalyst that dl003 mentioned.

 

[tivoboy]

SPY red 2 days + today

NVDA was the last catalyst and it's all macros from hereon
View attachment 1022583

That’s not just “canada” that’s Nova Scotia/Nefoundland. ;-)

 

[Jim Holder]

TSLA unwinding the entire gains....

Dealers joined the selling now

 

[dl003]

I've already said what my plan was. Called the pivot. Called the pullback. It went deeper than I thought but I didn't see SPY coming down to 490 today either so there's that. If it breaks the previous low then back to the drawing board but for now I'm just going to wait for the 2nd leg up before selling new CCs. Also provided the timeframe for which the 207 gap gets filled (after next week).

Nothing new today worth mentioning. Most days I go on here and really get nothing beneficial for my decision making so I stick to my trading group.

Missed the full fill by $1. Dead on timing.
The rest about show of strength should be evident by now.

 

[Jim Holder]

Missed the full fill by $1.7. Dead on timing.
The rest about show of strength should be evident by now.
View attachment 1022597

Puts/short here for <$190?

With such a nice 5-waves up into this morning's high, a retrace holding $196-198 area may be all, or maybe we are heading down in a c wave after all back to $175.

 

[dl003]

Also

What we're seeing is simply a repeat of the past and will be repeated in the future. Go back to this post. If you study the chart based on what I post, sometimes you're going to arrive at the same conclusion without me providing any update.

Here's what the entire process looked like on the chart. This time is going to be no difference. To expect a higher high after the next high, we need to see overbought on the 4h. If there's no such thing on that day, I'd venture to say we'd sell off into the close after making that higher high.

So what our intermediate term target is, is one thing. What we do from peak to peak and from trough to trough is a different thing. We can expect a higher high if some conditions are met, but on that day when our prediction comes true but conditions for more upside are not met, we need to change the trajectory.
View attachment 1019580

Keep in mind that I was blindsided in January and called for the end of the crash prematurely at mid 220s.

 

[Jim Holder]

Also

Really, really good work!

How low do you see us going? Wondering if to cut longs calls/short puts to put them back lower.

 

[dl003]

Really, really good work!

How low do you see us going? Wondering if to cut longs calls/short puts to put them back lower.

There's no telling. 175 is the bottom. Between here and 175 is free for all.

 

[thenewguy1979]

The whole market went red.

The morning consumer confident went down, the durable good went down more then expected.

Seem we are heading to the SPY MACRO pullback......

The dog BTO some cheap SPY +496P exp 3/4

 

[thenewguy1979]

There still some strength in TSLA due to overall EV supports.

 

[thenewguy1979]

SPY been making lower high and lower low in past 3 days.

Gearing up for a big move.....?

PCE Thursday....
Potential Government Shutdown Friday.....

 

[Jim Holder]

Lots of put buying on TSLA

 

[Jim Holder]

tallest +gex matches tallest call OI, probability is high approx 195-205

methinks 198.4-204.4

198.40 seems to be supporting for now

 

[Max Plaid]

View attachment 1022558

From 1599 OI yesterday to 21177 volume today, not even a round number, so maybe multiple trades...?

Looking at the option history, it's multiple trades over the day, just see one biggish block for 1499

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762553352510959753

 

[thenewguy1979]

AAPL stock went up since they canceled the electric car,
TSLA stock went up since they don't have to compete with AAPL

Win win.....