Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Patrick66]

As of ~2 weeks ago DMV VIN data had CT production barely above 100 per week, so I think 100/day currently is...optimistic.

Based on drone footage they are doing close to that at least some days. They are safely shipping out a minimum of 30-40/day average currently; there aren't enough data points to support a higher number with confidence.

It doesn't have a material impact on Q1 financials, but it is important relative to how they are executing.

 

[Max Plaid]

Without Yoona's data, I would have said a Green Monday is usually followed by a Red Tuesday, but that is not the case.

Part of the rally may be due to the recent news from BYD saying that battery costs are going to be cut in half. Clearly margins for EVs are going to improve.

BYD also stating how much they admire Tesla, see them more as a partner than a competitor and have no plans to expand into the US... on top of that I would say people are finally beginning to understand that legacy auto is nowhere and the other EV companies are struggling. It's all about Tesla and BYD now

BYD considers Tesla 'a partner' in the EV transition

BYD Auto (BYDDY, 1211.HK) unveiled a new supercar that will cost more than $230 thousand. The Yangwang U9 is designed to take on cars from more traditional supercar-makers like Ferrari (RACE) and Lamborghini (VWAGY). BYD is now the world's largest EV maker, officially surpassing Tesla (TSLA) at...

finance.yahoo.com

Decent CN numbers today after CNY restart, on track still for a record quarter, at this stage you'd have to say 500k is a distinct possibility, which would be a great psychological milestone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1762357628821238126

 

[Max Plaid]

As of ~2 weeks ago DMV VIN data had CT production barely above 100 per week, so I think 100/day currently is...optimistic.

Same data shows Highland refresh in the US is also going really slowly in ramping.

Troy may well be overly pessimistic for the annual number by assuming Tesla will ramp slower going forward than they actually do- but for Q1 the more real-world VIN data he gets the lower his estimates have gotten and that's primarily data driven.

Contrast that with the #s AJ was suggesting a few posts up, with Tesla getting to 2.15 million annual deliveries for 2024 which seems... a challenging target at this point. Elon already said CT won't contribute meaningfully to the financials this year so say 50k CTs... do folks really think 3/Y sales will grow ANOTHER 300,000 units this year?

Exit rate from 24Q4 was already indicating 2million in 2024 without further growth, just needs +150k more, let's say 50k CT, so +100k 3&Y, 50k each from GF4 & 5, 1k per week, seems quite reasonable to me

 

[Jim Holder]

TSLA moving this morning, those green GEX bars are quite attractive to it. Let’s see how high we get and if it can sustain the move. Lots of sellers lurking and watching

From @dl003’s earlier post:
As we're approaching the strong $209.3 resistance. Keep an eye out for a few things:

1. Yes, the stock has shown strength on the 2h, but will it show it on the 4h and take us up further? Meaning, once it has taken out $201.30 (closing over $201.3 on any 2h candle, not just breaking it intra-candle) will the next candles be green until it's reached overbought on the 4h?

2. On the day when it takes out $201.3, will the highest closing price far exceed $201.3, resulting in an even higher RSI reading on the 2h compared to the peak of 72.43 on Friday? If not, we're just going to have a bigger bearish divergence, now on the 2h, leading to another pullback which can morph into a full blown correction, possibly marking the end of this recovery.

Both are very closely related. If either one happens, the other often follows. However, we will be happy with just one. If none happens, then be very careful on that day and prepare for a steep correction.

I sure hope the stock can go further than just the 2h timeframe but we trade the chart, not what we wish to happen.

For the record, the 4h RSI is right now sitting at 60.8. To reach 70, I estimate it needs to reach 215 minimum. The good news is it had reached it in both of the big DCBs we had in 2023.

 

[Jim Holder]

Note the ~$210 pivot as price is inching closer to that pivot. Good bounce short term, but this has simply been consolidating below pivot resistance.

Credit: TATrades

 

[Knightshade]

Exit rate from 24Q4 was already indicating 2million in 2024 without further growth, just needs +150k more, let's say 50k CT, so +100k 3&Y, 50k each from GF4 & 5, 1k per week, seems quite reasonable to me

Does it?

Inventory discounts keep happening, EU inventory of Y increased significantly, and ramp of Highland in the US has been shockingly slow for something China didn't seem to have issues ramping.... (and even in China/EU there's still no Performance version available ~6 months after the refresh)- plus Model 3 lost a $7500 tax credit in the US, and other models lost EV incentives in Germany and elsewhere, Chinas economy looks to be in trouble, and rate cuts haven't come yet and look like they won't for longer than many thought.

It's not that I doubt Tesla could MAKE 300k more 3/Y in 2024 than in 2023....the highland ramp issue doesn't help, but Berlin in particular has run well under capacity since opening and still does so they could hit that target if they wanted to.... the issue is finding 300k more [B}buyers[/B] of 3/Y at prices that still offer not-awful margins for Tesla... again with the general economic situation and no-EV-credits headwinds in a number of significant markets not helping there either.

Based on drone footage they are doing close to that at least some days.

FWIW that video I'm replying to claimed to do just that... but then actually looking at it only showed, at best, 24 Cybertrucks actually lined up for delivery that day....

They are safely shipping out a minimum of 30-40/day average currently; there aren't enough data points to support a higher number with confidence.

It doesn't have a material impact on Q1 financials, but it is important relative to how they are executing.

Again I don't pay for Troys most recent VIN data, so it's possible they've done from ~100 a week to ~200 a week since his Feb 7 data.... but the video posted in support of 100/day sure didn't actually support that- and that one at least doesn't even support 30-40 day, showing only 24 actually lined up to get on delivery trucks, but it's at least a more plausible jump than 100/day.

More relevantly- it makes Troys delivery target for CT in 2024 look quite reasonable when another poster suggested it was not. It's of course possible there's be some massive step-change in CT ramp at some point--- but since Tesla told us 4680 supply was NOT gating production I'm not sure what that would be... (if it had been 4680 supply then adding the 4 more lines they've talked about would be the fix).

Either way, as you say, and as Elon has, CT won't be financially material this year.

 

[Jim Holder]

Does it?

Inventory discounts keep happening, EU inventory of Y increased significantly, and ramp of Highland in the US has been shockingly slow for something China didn't seem to have issues ramping.... plus Model 3 lost a $7500 tax credit in the US, and other models lost EV incentives in Germany and elsewhere, Chinas economy looks to be in trouble, and rate cuts haven't come yet and look like they won't for longer than many thought.

It's not that I doubt Tesla could MAKE 300k more 3/Y in 2024 than in 2023....the highland ramp issue doesn't help, but Berlin in particular has run well under capacity since opening and still does so they could hit that target if they wanted to.... the issue is finding 300k more [B}buyers[/B] of 3/Y at prices that still offer not-awful margins for Tesla... again with the general economic situation and no-EV-credits headwinds in a number of significant markets not helping there either.

Please let's keep this thread focused on trading options and have all other discussions in the other thread.

 

[Max Plaid]

All the EV stock up nicely, Li had better than expected results, so the general malaise over "EV demand" narrative maybe shifting a bit too

 

[Max Plaid]

Please let's keep this thread focused on trading options and have all other discussions in the other thread.

View attachment 1022519

To be fair, Jim, although the discussion is maybe going a bit too deep, I think the Q1 P&D numbers will be extremely relevant to short term TSLA SP - if Q1 were to beat consensus, be higher than seasonally-stronger Q4, Dog-forbid, be above 500k, would be a major catalyst IMO and something we should all be prescient of with our positioning as the end of the quarter approaches

 

[Jim Holder]

To be fair, Jim, although the discussion is maybe going a bit too deep, I think the Q1 P&D numbers will be extremely relevant to short term TSLA SP - if Q1 were to beat consensus, be higher than seasonally-stronger Q4, Dog-forbid, be above 500k, would be a major catalyst IMO and something we should all be prescient of with our positioning as the end of the quarter approaches

Good point

 

[Discoducky]

To be fair, Jim, although the discussion is maybe going a bit too deep, I think the Q1 P&D numbers will be extremely relevant to short term TSLA SP - if Q1 were to beat consensus, be higher than seasonally-stronger Q4, Dog-forbid, be above 500k, would be a major catalyst IMO and something we should all be prescient of with our positioning as the end of the quarter approaches

Agree on the P&D numbers being relevant, but not the deep discussion/speculation. If/when there is relevant material info I'd expect @Knightshade to have it handy and be spot on.

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm tempted to sell 215CCs for Friday right now, but I will wait until tomorrow.

Good call!

 

[BornToFly]

Cory of Wicked Stocks said that over 202.21 means we could hit 207.83 today. Close over 209.9 means go long to 250. I will see what kind of rolls I have for my 205CC for Friday and open new CCs on my remaining shares to help roll them further up.

Edit: I'm also going to double or triple my NVDA ICs for Friday.

 

[juanmedina]

Cory of Wicked Stocks said that over 202.21 means we could hit 207.83 today. Close over 209.9 means go long to 250. I will see what kind of rolls I have for my 205CC for Friday and open new CCs on my remaining shares to help roll them further up.

Edit: I'm also going to double or triple my NVDA ICs for Friday.

What strikes do you for NVDA ICs?

 

[Max Plaid]

Cory of Wicked Stocks said that over 202.21 means we could hit 207.83 today. Close over 209.9 means go long to 250. I will see what kind of rolls I have for my 205CC for Friday and open new CCs on my remaining shares to help roll them further up.

Edit: I'm also going to double or triple my NVDA ICs for Friday.

I'm a bit exposed to the TSLA upside with:

3/1 20x -c200 + 50x -c210
3/8 50x -c210
3/15 23x -c175
Sep 100x -c240

However, have the following longs:

2200 TSLA
3/15 100x +c280
July 100x +c300
Jan 25 100x +c300
Dec 25 60x +c200
Jan 26 26x +c270
Jun 26 11x +c200

Unless something very dramatic happens, the March +c280 are toast, but the July +c300's could possibly cover a melt-up and weekly roll of the weekly short calls

Still have 20x Sep -p270's that will benefit from a rise too

And I've been doing my recent short calls on a relatively sensible 50x per week alternating, allowing a 2 week roll-out if needed, of course that doesn't help much if we get "one of those" face-rippers, but more flexible than 100x per week

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

3/1

3/8

 

[BornToFly]

What strikes do you for NVDA ICs?

I sold more +650/-680 on the opening dip. Order in for -905/+935

 

[BornToFly]

I rolled my 205CC to 207.5, still for Friday. Gave back most of my original premium. Have order in for 220CC for 0.5 for Friday (would have hit if I wasn't too slow on the order).

 

[Jim Holder]

SW EW update:

TSLA seems to be trying for "more than iv" ($207-$209) which will make another new lower low as C of (2) ($155) less probable. But so far it rejected 2x @ $205.55. And it will still need to hold a retrace to a higher low off $175 after getting the possible 5up to confirm that $175.01 was the bottom.


Primary analysis

Macro Clean

 

[BornToFly]

I can't get my latest NVDA -900/+930 to fill for the credit I want. There is a huge sell wall at 800. I might lower to 880/910....