Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

That is the problem. I could sell TSLA to increase margin, but I risk losing even more.

I have this feeling that NVDA will be 930 on Monday. One day too late for me....

Overall, there’s a most likely a much higher probably of NVDA running 8% to the upside in the next trading day than Tesla doing anything like that… and probably a greater prob of the TSLA going down another 5% in a similar or slightly longer period. That’s a tough one for sure.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Rolled my -175P to -160p for 30 cent credit. Happy with that.

My problem with current SP action is that .... I don't expect great P&D / ER for Q1. So, if SP is already around 170 level - we may see a repeat of Jan '23.

Hard to know what's baked in at this point and what's not. Most, if not everyone, already knows P/D is going to be underwhelming and thus earnings.

The only new element just to remind everyone is that every P/D report from now on will include Energy numbers. So possible that Energy deployment is a large enough good surprise to counter the underwhelming P/D numbers

 

[tivoboy]

If they had been 100 wide ICs they would have been no problem to manage and roll to next week. I learned too late.

Can you take the ~ $21 on the +900 here and now, reduce the spread loss, and then manage the margin on the account side? Certainly that margin cost to resolve by next week won’t be too much. Otherwise you’re just taking the loss this week, and not holding anything with upside or leverage.. I mean you’ll get put if we don’t rally $50 in the next 38 minutes.

NFA, just thinking out loud

 

[Max Plaid]

Bit the bullet of low premiums, and sold 22Mar$195 cc. Trying to not “be greedy”

As safe as houses, as the phrase goes...

NFA!!

 

[BornToFly]

Can you take the ~ $21 on the +900 here and now, reduce the spread loss, and then manage the margin on the account side? Certainly that margin cost to resolve by next week won’t be too much. Otherwise you’re just taking the loss this week, and not holding anything with upside or leverage.. I mean you’ll get put if we don’t rally $50 in the next 38 minutes.

NFA, just thinking out loud

I don't have the margin to close the +900 and have 300X -930P

 

[BornToFly]

I can roll the NVDA 900/930 to next week, but the cost is $10! Selling a 930/960 on the call side doesn't come close to covering it.

Edit: and then I'm left with an impossible straddle.

 

[Yoona]

I can roll the NVDA 900/930 to next week, but the cost is $10! Selling a 930/960 on the call side doesn't come close to covering it.

Edit: and then I'm left with an impossible straddle.

can't you split the cost over several weeks (ie installment)?

i mean, you don't need to break even next week, you just need the position to break even overall (however long it takes)

ie cost=10, 2/wk income and you're good in 5 wks

NOT ADVICE, just thinking aloud without rly thinking

 

[dl003]

Although the least experienced person here, I’ll share a few words. Buying puts when the market is bearish isn’t contrarian…unless you have clear insights that it will be meaningfully more bearish from here. I’ve thought of doing the same and am waiting for relative peaks over the next couple of weeks…to pull the trigger.

Can’t help but reflect on what Yoona shared yesterday; options trading is addictive and I fear that we’re all here because we have that gambling tendency. You can certainly buy puts here and will be able to timely STC them for some gain; it’s the delicate balance of reward to risk that we want to maintain over time for the odds / gains to lean in our favor.

Hmm, I'm the furthest you can get from what can be considered a gambler. There's a fine line between adrenaline seeking behavior and clearly defined risk appetite. I belong to the latter. Whatever method and system you follow, the purpose is to calculate R:R and size your bets accordingly. What worries me is the lack of such system in guiding our actions.

 

[CHGolferJim]

As safe as houses, as the phrase goes...

NFA!!

Kicking myself for letting MaxPain scare me off, and wingeing out of the 8Mar$175 so early.

 

[redan]

I don't have the margin to close the +900 and have 300X -930P

Close the +900 for the win. Roll the -930 (or another number -920? -910? -900?, etc. ) and open a new +[830] to preserve margin? Again, issue is you need 930 (or new -P number) next week or risk continuing losses.

 

[BornToFly]

can't you split the cost over several weeks (ie installment)?

i mean, you don't need to break even next week, you just need the position to break even overall (however long it takes)

ie cost=10, 2/wk income and you're good in 5 wks

NOT ADVICE, just thinking aloud without rly thinking

I can't see how to do it without taking on more risk. In other words, to make $5 of the $25 back, I would need to risk another 900k, right?
I'm not seeing any rolls that keep me in the game without costing more money.

 

[EVNow]

I can't see how to do it without taking on more risk. In other words, to make $5 of the $25 back, I would need to risk another 900k, right?
I'm not seeing any rolls that keep me in the game without costing more money.

You should be able to roll to 930 to 870 or something like that ? Yes, increasing width and risk.

 

[dl003]

the best thing I can suggest for @BornToFly would be to turn those into 750 CSP exp 5/17. Try to come up with the cash to do so. Since NVDA has beat earnings quarter after quarter, the odd of it going into next ER above the high prior to last ER is extremely high. Or 1 900 CSP for every 4 spreads.

 

[MikeC]

Hoping for a 175.01 close @tivoboy

 

[Max Plaid]

I can't believe I bit the spread bug again and lost.
How on Earth does NVDA go from 970 earlier today after going up 5%, to dropping 10% to be down 5% on the day?!?

I had promised myself I would never let spreads go into the money and roll them week to week. But the reversal happened so fast I was caught flat footed. Looks like I will have a $25 loss X 300.

This will cost me 4,300 shares of TSLA.

The worst part is having to look my wife in the eye and tell her.

That's it. I am never doing spreads again. Just CSP and CCs. I don't know how much I need to lose to learn my lesson. You guys are just smarter and/or more disciplined than I am.

It's the risk with straight spreads mate, that why I do calendars, the long side costs more, but way safer... of course if the weeklies pay then it's ridiculous profits, but when they don't, devastating losses

But worth mentioning again that prior to the NVDA dump I did see the price of July puts rising, against the rising share price. Coincidence? I think not, a pre-meditated dump by some actors, and a useful early-warning signal for the future

Mouse-nuts for me with 5x -p950's, but when I saw that put price increasing I almost closed out the NVDA -puts, but didn't

Not an extinction event for me, small trade, but the market dynamics were like a finger-print

 

[Max Plaid]

Be careful, especially if you are thinking to open a 6DTE NVDA position !

To be fair, today a 0DTE NVDA position was a *sugar*-sandwich...

 

[Jim Holder]

For whoever's keeping track:

 

[dl003]

1. A weekly bullish divergence is now in play for the first time in 2 years.
2. Fresh daily bullish divergence also shows up today after yesterday's green. This is accompanied by bullish divergence on every smaller timeframe.
3. The stock is resting on the 4.618x extension of the 1st wave down (205.6-198.26). This is a very strong limit to how extended a move can be. Even the late 2022 bear market couldn't break it.
If the stock crashes from here, so be it. But as of right now, this looks like the last liquidity grab before a real bounce (maybe a dead cat, maybe not). The risk now is to the upside.

Tivoboy has been more consistent than I am so I give a lot of weight to what he's seeing. I'm calling for 185 absolute bottom so we're not that far off from each other, considering we've both been bearish since 279. My 185 call is not based on any fundamental but a frequently encountered phenomenon which may or may not repeat itself.

No matter how strong the trend is, up or down, the entire length of the run most of the time will not exceed 4.618x of the first wave. You can see this in April 2022 and even the November-December 2022 crash.
View attachment 986716

Here's the one from 279
View attachment 986723
Now if we do this exercise on the current one from 269
View attachment 986729
We can see that the 4.618 level lies at 174. So that's closer to tivoboy's bottoming zone.

However, that's the big wave, what about the smaller one? We're at the tail end of wave 5 (the oval shape). Fib ratios work for waves of this degree, too.

View attachment 986730
And that's my 185 right there. If the last wave won't break 185, then neither will the entire sequence. My rationale is: if even the 2022 Elon fiasco couldn't break this guideline, why should the one we're in now? So, my expectation is the worst we're gonna see in the first half of November is 185.

However, what comes after that is a bit muddy. What if the 279-234-269-185 sequence is NOT a 3 waver? What if it's a 5 waver? What if 185 is just the end of the 3rd wave and we have one more? If so, once it's bounced to 205-217 in the 2nd half of November, we need to be very vigilant because if it's rejected there, it can go down way deeper than 160. The destructive potential is so great that you won't want to look at how far the 4.618 level is going to get us. However, right now I'm leaning toward this is a big 3 waver, not 5. Let's say 70% certain.

 

[Jim Holder]

Prior to the NVDA dump I did see the price of July puts rising, against the rising share price.

Is there a way to see/track this easily or need to keep checking chain?

 

[elasalle]

Tesla
Next week GF Berlin comes back online
China numbers March 12th- 2nd week of good numbers? after market compared Feb data, even though this year had New years

Macro
CPI march 12th


as always it's gonna be fun ... gonna wait till the 12th before selling CCs next week ...