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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
After Q4 2022, shouldn't be surprising
. All throughout 2023 the rallies after Q1, Q2 earnings seemed very exaggerated. The earnings and continued price cuts just didn't justify that moves. Now the stock is paying for it.It's ugly though to be down 40% since Jan 1st while the macros are up 9%. Woof
. I'm still worried about a macro correction/pullback and what the effects of that will be on TSLA at this point. I was thinking the macro correction/pullback would be the thing that caused it to fill the gap at 146 but now who knows 
Thanks for this.
Do you see any DCB's on the way down we can sell into or better not wait?
($171 this morning was a surprise!)
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Well look at this... the EV guys are dragging down the whole Market. Guess the hot CPI/PPI are signaling potential longer high interest and driving more FUD.
AI I think is just going through the up and down then up motion.
AI I think is just going through the up and down then up motion.
I'm in a waiting for lower share price mode right now.
Like a few others I'm seeing a bad combination of 2024 macro and company setup that I see readily translating into a serious revaluation of the company downwards.
I have seen the market "wake up" a couple of times and realize that the share price / company valuation was seriously out of step with a more realistic valuation, and go seeking after a better valuation. Big moves up of course in both cases. I haven't seen the market "wake up" and realize the share price / valuation were too high, and need to go down to find a more realistic valuation, and I'm beginning to think that we are seeing that now. I don't know where that bottom is, and haven't really thought about what that might be. @Knightshade and @tivoboy are I think further down that line of thought than I am.
In both kinds of cases, until the market has found that new valuation range, the shares can run and will probably overrun, that fair valuation. They certainly did in 2013 when we reached a price on the back of a still ramping Model S that was later matched by the company having S and X ramped, and having a good start on the Model 3 ramp. The later company was clearly a lot more valuable than the earlier company, but the market had overrun the earlier valuation.
An additional factor I haven't previously considered. New EV prices dropping is also forcing used EV prices downwards. Used car values matter, and the falling EV prices are hurting used EV prices. It's a form of Osbourning for the EV technology I haven't previously considered, making for a double whammy in the car market in general.
New gas car sales are going down, and will continue down, as people are increasingly aware that EVs are the future.
New EV sales are not growing as they have historically as we're moving into the early majority part of the market, and the early majority are very concerned with the used car value of their purchase. They see these prices dropping rapidly and like any deflationary market are delaying their purchases while the prices continue to drop.
It'll work itself out, but this Valley of Death that I've only thought of as affecting new gas car sales is also affecting new EV car sales.
I hope this is making sense.
There one long term support around 144, the 100 MEMA that ended the 2019 and 2022 bear market.
Yikes, what a mess...
BTC 10x TSLA 3/15 -175 straddles net -$4.5, failed on that one!
Rolled 100x TSLA 3/22 -c180 to -c170 net +$1.7
These start to get a bit lower than I would prefer, but really hard to see anything turning this around in the short term and can only imagine it getting worse after P&D
Now the big decision is when to offload the +p150's if we get into the 140's, so I do it then, or wait and see if it goes to 100
Closing positions can hard...
BTC 10x TSLA 3/15 -175 straddles net -$4.5, failed on that one!
Rolled 100x TSLA 3/22 -c180 to -c170 net +$1.7
These start to get a bit lower than I would prefer, but really hard to see anything turning this around in the short term and can only imagine it getting worse after P&D
Now the big decision is when to offload the +p150's if we get into the 140's, so I do it then, or wait and see if it goes to 100
Closing positions can hard...
Anyone following shipping closely these days - Tesla Carriers
from Tesla Carriers Map
Shows only 14 ships, whereas past quarters was like 40 ships.
Let's hope the inventory drawdowns is good this quarter.
My read was macro would correct in end of Jan/Feb , seems it is gonna happen now ..
from Tesla Carriers Map
Shows only 14 ships, whereas past quarters was like 40 ships.
Let's hope the inventory drawdowns is good this quarter.
My read was macro would correct in end of Jan/Feb , seems it is gonna happen now ..
Rolled TSLA 3/22 -p170 out to 12/20 -p120 for a small credit as I'm not ready to have those shares put to me amidst all of the doom and gloom. Buying at $120 in Dec. sounds good now, though I hope the SP is significantly higher and these expire worthless.
We're crashing late 2022 style, just on a smaller scale, so probably don't count on any DCB.
I do believe that something in the mid $14x range is going to prove sustainable and tradable..it has many elements of support.
I could see us doing a bounce back up over $172, maybe $174, wow, big woop.. 6%. I don’t see a bounce back over $180-$185 anytime before P&D.. and frankly, I could see it going lower still as I’ve indicated. For me, at this point, if we somehow rallied back soon to $185 at this point (that would be up 15% from todays lows) for ME, I would sell the last of my position. NFA
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Fair enough; pure lane centering is useless for me with some of the road conditions I drive. What do you place the dollar value of FSD Beta for your commute?
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