Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Hiline]

If that's true I dunno how anybody thinks this is the bottom

I mean, it was pretty obvious from Q4 last year that earnings were going to fall for the following several quarters. It's not rocket science to figure out that Q1 earnings are going to be worse than Q4, and with all likelihood Q2 is going to be even worse. Why was there ever any doubt?

We just don't know what P/E is going to look like.

 

[MrMoo]

If that's true I dunno how anybody thinks this is the bottom

I think they mean in regards to TA this is the bottom.

Of course fundamentals always beat TA. If they sold 100k cars this quarter then no amount of TA is going to fix a crater in the stock.

Perhaps because SP is already punished >-30%?

No analyst is expecting 410k. If his right the stock will go down lower IMO. I think we are in the middle of pricing in 430kish. Which btw is already a double digit drop from where TSLA bulls and analysts were at the start of the year.

 

[Knightshade]

I mean, it was pretty obvious from Q4 last year that earnings were going to fall for the following several quarters. It's not rocket science to figure out that Q1 earnings are going to be worse than Q4, and with all likelihood Q2 is going to be even worse. Why was there ever any doubt?

We just don't know what P/E is going to look like.

I'm not talking earnings- I'm talking deliveries.

Q1 -down- over 10k cars YoY is gonna be an ugly, ugly, story even before anyone does EPS math

Perhaps because SP is already punished >-30%?

Not once the growth company with negative growth narrative is out there-- Has Tesla ever had a YoY delivery decline in a quarter if you back out Q2 2020 (initial Covid hitting)


Obviously we know this is going to reverse massively with next-gen car, but that's still ~2 years out.... Maybe longer for bottom-line-significant ramp of it.

 

[Hiline]

I'm not talking earnings- I'm talking deliveries.

Q1 -down- over 10k cars YoY is gonna be an ugly, ugly, story even before anyone does EPS math





Not once the growth company with negative growth narrative is out there-- Has Tesla ever had a YoY delivery decline in a quarter if you back out Q2 2020 (initial Covid hitting)


Obviously we know this is going to reverse massively with next-gen car, but that's still ~2 years out.... Maybe longer for bottom-line-significant ramp of it.

In my mind these two are closely related. Earnings and deliveries are both impacted by demand. Tesla had to cut prices aggressively because of weakened demand caused by high interest rates and the CEO's unpopular public statements. After such massive pay cuts there is just not much margin left to continue pulling this lever. Tesla only recently started to learn how to advertise, but the advertising efforts are going to take some time to alter public awareness and perception. Deliveries fall because there just isn't much appetite for Tesla cars. Price reductions are not going to fix the demand problem. When deliveries and margins both fall, earnings become abysmal.

 

[khill]

I mean, it was pretty obvious from Q4 last year that earnings were going to fall for the following several quarters. It's not rocket science to figure out that Q1 earnings are going to be worse than Q4, and with all likelihood Q2 is going to be even worse. Why was there ever any doubt?

We just don't know what P/E is going to look like.

So are you suggesting that the stock has bottomed? Yes, everyone knows earnings will be less - the question being asked is -does the stock price $170 already reflect that OR it has much more to go down.

 

[john tanglewoo]

What expiration?

June monthly

 

[Jim Holder]

Max Pain update:
3/28: 172.50
4/5: 177.50
4/12: 175.00
4/19: 180.00
4/26: 175.00
5/03: 170.00
5/17: 180.00
6/21: 200.00
7/19: 200.00
8/16: 185.00
9/20: 200.00
10/18: 170.00
11/15: 180.00
12/20: 180.00

 

[tivoboy]

Max Pain update:
3/28: 172.50
4/5: 177.50
4/12: 175.00
4/19: 180.00
4/26: 175.00
5/03: 170.00
5/17: 180.00
6/21: 200.00
7/19: 200.00
8/16: 185.00
9/20: 200.00
10/18: 170.00
11/15: 180.00
12/20: 180.00

That’s just called ALL pain.. straddle central, until it’s not.

 

[UncaNed]

$TSLA first chart has good aggressive buyers delta remained close to 50% which is very good.

People think this is the BOTTOM

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772101760452383111

Next week $180 MM would close it $175 by EOW but price will march to $175-$185 range. They have tons of OI > 180C not much vol yet.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772100947218661733

Dear Mods: Twitter/X links stoped unfolding today on TMC (just shows link), was there any SW changes that can be fixed/reverted for this function?

TSLA doesn't feel very bottomy to me.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

TSLA doesn't feel very bottomy to me.

Not saying I think we've bottomed because I still think the 146 gap gets filled around Q1 P/D numbers or Q1 earnings.

But.....We've seen a lot of capitulation from retail TSLA holders over the past couple of months along with lots of capitulation amongst TSLA bull analysts. Practically every bullish analyst has cut n run at this point with massive PT reductions. The expectation are so low at this point that Q1 (and Q2 guidance) will have to come in very rough for there to be a significantly lower low than 150'ish.

Even the 146 gap fill that I'm expecting, will be a intraday thing and will likely touch 146 for just a brief second and end the day back in the 150's or even 160's.

 

[elasalle]

took the bump to close 180 PUTS for this Fri for break even ..
.. no tesla trades this week ... vacations from Fri ... dry powder for post P&D dip ... cheers !!

+ sold some NVDA PUTS instead ...

 

[Jim Holder]

Dear mods: Pasting images into new posts no longer works. Please check if there's a new bug.

 

[tivoboy]

Lots of new put OI buying today for 3/28 at the 160 and 4/19 at the 157.5 strikes.

Still can’t post images,

 

[thenewguy1979]

chicken dog BTC ICs -167.5P/+182.5C for 40% gain this morning during the pump. Waiting for the 180 from the future guy to sell Call and buy Puts Spread for next week PD into ER.

 

[BornToFly]

Near the top of the pop, sold 100X 175CC, and 100X 180CC for April 5.
If I'm rolling those next week, it means my 110X +170/-195 BPS for April 12th are looking better....

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Dear mods: Pasting images into new posts no longer works. Please check if there's a new bug.

Yes, we noticed and this has been brought to the attention of the admins. We'll have to wait and see if they can fix it.

The same goes for the links to X which no longer show any content. That could be a software thing or it could be Elon trying to get more traffic to X (if links no longer show content, people will need to go to X).

 

[BornToFly]

Near the top of the pop, sold 100X 175CC, and 100X 180CC for April 5.
If I'm rolling those next week, it means my 110X +170/-195 BPS for April 12th are looking better....

Already showing a nice profit. You guys think we hit the bottom for the day and will go up again? Could buy them back now and resell later....

 

[thenewguy1979]

Already showing a nice profit. You guys think we hit the bottom for the day and will go up again? Could buy them back now and resell later....

take profit if you believed in the future guy saying we hit 180 this week.

 

[tivoboy]

chicken dog BTC ICs -167.5P/+182.5C for 40% gain this morning during the pump. Waiting for the 180 from the future guy to sell Call and buy Puts Spread for next week PD into ER.

When they leave the nest and fly, it’s a beautiful thing - I’m told.

 

[dl003]

This has been going on a day, not sure where the problem lies.. tried full log out and login, cache clear, different systems, same issue.

The way TSLA's been crashing, it's getting harder and harder to afford hosting for imgs.