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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Sold 3/28 -c170s and used the proceeds to buy 4/5 +p170s on the pop. Both positions are in the green, but I'm planning to hold to much closer to expiration. The covered calls in particular are an unusually risky play for me, but my conviction that they'll expire worthless (or, at the least, break-even) is high.
 
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Sold 3/28 -c170s and used the proceeds to buy 4/5 +p170s on the pop. Both positions are in the green, but I'm planning to hold to much closer than expiration. The covered calls in particular are an unusually risky play for me, but my conviction that they'll expire worthless (or, at the least, break-even) is high.
you willing to let go of shares at 170. That's getting close. Not believing in the Future Guy are we ;)
 
China delivery numbers tomorrow will give a good final estimate for the quarter in China. SP could move a lot in either direction tomorrow.
I think not. Too late for any big move unless it is something astronomical to either side. Like at least >3x / <0.3x the normal rate. Else, nobody'd want to get caught in a trap 3 days before P&D.
 
I think not. Too late for any big move unless it is something astronomical to either side. Like at least >3x / <0.3x the normal rate. Else, nobody'd want to get caught in a trap 3 days before P&D.

Rolling the crystal ball, curious what are you guessing for low after P&D is released and again late April after ER?
I have some -P250 9/20/24 that can survive down to approx $158 and -P300 6/18/26 that can survive to $152 before needing roll down and out. Trying to decide what to do with them. I already hedged somewhat by selling CC's for 1/17/25 (-C240 to -C260) when we were at $205 and bought some +P170 6/21. Planning to sell more CC's for 5/17 (-C200 range) into any addl strength this week.
 
Rolling the crystal ball, curious what are you guessing for low after P&D is released and again late April after ER?
I have some -P250 9/20/24 that can survive down to approx $158 and -P300 6/18/26 that can survive to $152 before needing roll down and out. Trying to decide what to do with them. I already hedged somewhat by selling CC's for 1/17/25 (-C240 to -C260) and bought some +P170 6/21. Planning to sell more CC's for 5/17 (-C200 range) into any addl strength this week.
140-145
 
Wouldn't it be hilarious if a "bad" P&D is and ER is already priced in, and the stock runs over 200, and all our CCs get smoked....

That would be so funny.... 😖
Just to remind everyone, Energy deployment gets reported on the P&D numbers going forward. That's a wildcard this time around.

Not saying Energy deployment is going to come with blowout numbers, but if it did, I could definitely see that causing a rally in TSLA. Energy revenue, while showing great YoY growth and great margin growth YoY and QoQ, has been rather stagnate on revenue QoQ growth for about 3 straight quarters now.

We know based on anecdotal Lathrop footage for many quarters now that Megapack production is significantly how that it was 3-4 quarters ago, yet revenue recognition has been flat since Q1 2023. We also know there's a significant lag between when a Megapack is produced to when it is put in service and thus its revenues recognized.

So Energy deployment/revenue is due for a large jump soon. Might be Q1, might be Q2. But it's coming. I'm not about to make some YOLO bets on it being this quarter though.
 
I think not. Too late for any big move unless it is something astronomical to either side. Like at least >3x / <0.3x the normal rate. Else, nobody'd want to get caught in a trap 3 days before P&D.
Thank you. If you held -P250 9/20/24 (down -$21k) and -P300 6/18/26 (down -$26k) would you look to close them here ($170-180) before next week, and maybe re-sell after we turn decidedly bullish again (or roll down and out now) NFA of course?
 
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